统计与数据科学学院知识库

    Cities in the Yangtze River Basin Economic Belt have developed rapidly over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, but unstable factors such as the pressure of international trade will interfere with economic development to a certain extent. Urban resilience measures a city's resilience to economic instability. Improving urban economic resilience and achieving high-level economic development is an important proposition during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The safety and stability of the manufacturing industry chain is the basis for stable economic development, and the competitive advantage brought by its agglomeration effect also promotes economic development. Therefore, the influence of industrial agglomeration on urban economic resilience in the Yangtze River Basin Economic Belt is worth studying and exploring.

    This paper aims to study the influence of industrial agglomeration on urban economic resilience in the Yangtze River Basin Economic Belt. Firstly, the existing literature is summarized and summarized, and the impact of manufacturing industry agglomeration on urban economic resilience is analyzed on the basis of new economic growth theory, location theory and hysteresis effect. Secondly, this paper uses the data of 36 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2020 to measure the index reasonably. Finally, through the spatial econometric model and panel vector autoregressive model, the influence of manufacturing industrial agglomeration on economic resilience is explored from the perspectives of spatial effect and dynamic influence.

    The main conclusions reached in this paper are mainly the following three points. (1) Through the measurement analysis of industrial agglomeration and economic resilience of cities in the Yangtze River Basin Economic Belt. The spatial distribution of urban manufacturing and industrial agglomeration roughly shows a pattern of "downstream-midstream-upstream" in decreasing order. From the perspective of city scale, the manufacturing industry agglomeration and urban economic resilience also show a pattern of decreasing super-large-medium-sized cities. (2) The SBM model established on the basis of the geographical weight matrix finds that the manufacturing industry agglomeration in the Yangtze River Basin has an inverted U-shaped impact on urban economic resilience, and the manufacturing industry agglomeration in other regions has a promoting effect on urban economic resilience in the region: (3) The dynamic analysis of the PVAR model shows that the industrial agglomeration of cities of various scales is the Grainger cause affecting the change of economic resilience. The impulse response diagram shows that the agglomeration of manufacturing industry has a positive effect on the improvement of urban economic resilience, and the promotion effect will exist for a relatively long time.