经济学院知识库

  当前，我国地方政府财政可持续性面临巨大压力，而后疫情时代我国更倾向于继续实施扩张性的财政政策以刺激经济向好，这对地方政府实现财政可持续性提出了更高要求。如何充分发挥人力资本对地方经济增长的有效支持作用，即实现“人力资本红利”，并通过合理调整其存量水平和结构水平，以缓解地方政府当前所面临的严峻财政压力尤显重要。目前关于人力资本积累对财政可持续性影响的研究成果较少且尚未形成共识，本研究有助于完善现有财政可持续性的理论分析框架，并在实践层面为地方政府缓解其财政可持续性压力提供经验研究支撑，为中央政府全面优化人才战略布局提供新的可行之策。

  本文首先从理论层面阐述研究的制度背景，并在此基础上构建涵盖了人力资本积累、高级人力资本占比和财政可持续性三个核心变量的理论分析框架，进而从收入效应与支出效应两个层面，将人力资本积累影响财政可持续性的过程凝练为税收收入效应、非税收入效应、成本效应以及溢出效应四条基本路径，并对其影响的机制效应展开理论分析。初步理论分析结果显示，人力资本积累对财政可持续性存在倒“U”型的影响效应，而高级人力资本占比对其作用路径可能存在调节效应。其次，基于中国2015-2020年219个地级及以上城市共1314个样本数据，构建相应的测度指标体系和计量分析模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明：

  （1）人力资本积累对地方财政可持续性存在倒“U”型的影响效应，并且这种影响具有一定持续性。对此，地方政府需建立长效的人力资本投资机制，充分重视人力资本积累对地方财政可持续性的缓解作用。

  （2）高级人力资本占比对人力资本积累与财政可持续性之间的关系存在反向调节作用。但在剔除人力资本错配问题后，发现科研综合技术服务业人数占比、信息传输计算机服务和软件从业人员占比强化了人力资本积累对财政可持续性的正向促进作用。

  （3）人力资本积累对财政可持续性的影响存在空间异质性。其一，人力资本积累在东部地区表现出对财政可持续性的正向促进作用；在西部地区则表现出对财政可持续性的反向抑制作用。其二，无论是否考虑人力资本错配问题，高级人力资本在东部地区均弱化了人力资本积累对财政可持续性的缓解作用；而西部地区在剔除人力资本错配的影响后，高级人力资本占比倾向于弱化人力资本积累对财政可持续性的负面影响。

  （4）高级人力资本占比和科研综合技术服务业人数占比对人力资本积累影响财政可持续性的过程存在显著一阶门槛效应。因此地方政府需要建立差异化的人才政策，重视人力资本积累的同时，亦不可忽视人力资本的结构问题。

  （5）剔除由于区域环境因素差异对人力资本积累水平的影响后，进一步检验由政府主导的人力资本积累对其财政可持续性产生的影响，发现地方政府的人才政策实施力度对财政可持续性仍然具有正向促进作用。

  At present, China's fiscal sustainability is facing great pressure, and China will continue to implement expansionary fiscal policies to stimulate steady economic growth in the post-epidemic era, which puts forward higher requirements for China's fiscal sustainability, and it is important to explore the factors affecting fiscal sustainability in this context. Affected by the trend of population aging, in recent years, the "human capital dividend" has been highly valued by local governments, human capital as one of the important production input factors, its stock level will inevitably bring economic growth, but considering the cost of this process is equally important, how to make full use of human capital to support local economic growth, and through reasonable adjustment of its stock level and structural level, to alleviate the current severe financial pressure faced by local governments is equally important. At present, the research on the impact of human capital accumulation on fiscal sustainability is still in its infancy and there is no consensus on it, this study is conducive to improving the existing theoretical analysis framework of fiscal sustainability, and provides empirical support for local governments to alleviate the pressure of fiscal sustainability by improving the level of regional human capital stock, and provides new feasible measures for the central government to comprehensively optimize the strategic layout of talents.

  This paper first analyzes the institutional background of the research from the theoretical level, and on this basis, a theoretical analysis framework covering the three core variables of human capital accumulation, senior human capital proportion and fiscal sustainability is constructed, and the process of human capital accumulation affecting fiscal sustainability is further summarized into four basic paths: tax revenue effect, non-tax revenue effect, cost effect and spillover effect from the two levels of income effect and expenditure effect. Preliminary theoretical analysis results show that human capital accumulation has an inverted U-shaped effect on fiscal sustainability, while the proportion of senior human capital may have a moderating effect on its pathway. Secondly, based on the total sample data of 1314 cities at the prefecture level and above in China from 2015 to 2020, the corresponding index system and model were constructed for empirical analysis, and the results showed that:

  (1) The accumulation of human capital has an inverted "U" shape on local fiscal sustainability, and this effect is sustainable. In this regard, local governments need to establish a long-term human capital investment mechanism, and pay full attention to the mitigating effect of human capital accumulation on local fiscal sustainability.

  (2) The proportion of senior human capital has a reverse moderating effect on the relationship between human capital accumulation and fiscal sustainability. However, after eliminating the misallocation of human capital, it is found that the proportion of scientific research comprehensive technical service industry and the proportion of information transmission computer service and software practitioners strengthen the positive promotion effect of human capital accumulation on financial sustainability.

  (3) The impact of human capital accumulation on fiscal sustainability is heterogeneous. First, the accumulation of human capital has shown a positive effect on fiscal sustainability in the eastern region; In the western region, it shows a reverse dampening effect on fiscal sustainability. Second, regardless of whether human capital misallocation is considered, senior human capital in the eastern region weakens the mitigating effect of human capital accumulation on fiscal sustainability. In the western region, after removing the impact of human capital misallocation, the proportion of senior human capital tends to weaken the negative impact of human capital accumulation on fiscal sustainability.

  (4) There is a significant first-order threshold effect on the process of human capital accumulation affecting fiscal sustainability by the proportion of senior human capital and the proportion of scientific research comprehensive technical services. Local governments need to establish differentiated talent policies that attach importance to the accumulation of human capital, but also do not neglect the structural issues of human capital.

  (5) After removing the impact of regional environmental factors on the level of human capital accumulation, the impact of government-led human capital accumulation on its fiscal sustainability is further examined, and it is found that the implementation of local governments' talent policies still has a positive effect on fiscal sustainability.