统计与数据科学学院知识库

为满足国内亟需转换经济增长动力以及应对复杂的国际形势的需求，我国提 出逐步构建以“国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”的新发展格局。 随后，由东盟主导并由中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰共同参与的《区域 全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP 协定）正式签署，该协定成为世界上最大的区域 自由贸易协定，为我国加速形成双循环的新格局注入了新动力。因此，对 RCEP 协定进一步研究将对我国经贸及产业实现高质量发展具有十分重要的意义。 本文基于新古典经济理论和可计算一般均衡模型，分析 RCEP 协定的签署对 成员国及我国的经济总量、贸易规模和各产业发展的影响。一方面，本文的研究 为定量模拟政策变化或其他外生冲击所带来的系统性影响提供更为科学的研究 方法；另一方面，本文通过定量分析模拟出不同政策变化对我国经济、贸易和产 业产出的影响，从而有助于寻求国内、国际双循环的发展路径，为政府提出相应 激励政策提供数据依据。 本文采用可计算一般均衡模型中的全球贸易分析模型，基于全球贸易分析数 据库以及世界银行统计数据库中的宏观数据，通过生产模型、消费模型、贸易和 全球运输模型以及宏观经济闭合体系，构建出符合当下经济运行的全球贸易分析 模型，并从关税壁垒和非关税壁垒两个方面进行政策模拟。模拟结果显示，非关 税壁垒、关税壁垒对我国和其他成员国经济规模、贸易规模和各产业发展的影响 程度依次减弱；关税降低及贸易便利化共同作用将显著扩大成员国的经济规模和 贸易规模；关税及技术性贸易壁垒同时发挥作用会对成员国经济规模和贸易规模 的扩大产生显著推动作用；关税削减及非关税壁垒的降低对我国的 GDP、进出 口规模同样有着正向推动的作用，且技术性贸易壁垒的作用尤为显著；关税削减 和贸易便利化会使我国粮食作物、资源采掘业、有色金属向成员国出口规模大大 增加，同时计算机和电子设备、化学原料、塑料及橡胶制品等由从非成员国进口 转向成员国；技术性贸易壁垒降低会使我国制造业从非成员国进口转向成员国进 口。最后，针对上述结论，我国可以借助 RCEP 协定优化产业及贸易结构，促进 国内大循环，弥补技术短板，打通国内国际两个市场，完成产业链升级，实现经 贸及产业的高质量发展。

In order to meet the urgent needs of transforming the economic growth engine and coping with the complex international situation, China proposes to gradually build a new development paradigm with "domestic big cycle as the main body and domestic and international double cycle promoting each other". Subsequently, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) led by ASEAN and jointly participated by China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand was officially signed, which became the largest regional free trade agreement in the world and injected new impetus to the new paradigm of accelerating the formation of a double cycle in China. Therefore, the further study of the RCEP agreement will be of great significance to the high-quality development of China's economy, trade and industry.

Based on neoclassical economic theory and computable general equilibrium model, this paper analyzes the impact of the signing of the RCEP agreement on the economic aggregate, trade scale and industrial development of the member countries and China. On the one hand, the research of this paper provides a more scientific research method for quantitative simulation of the systemic impact brought by policy changes or other exogenous shocks; On the other hand, this paper simulates the impact of different policy changes on China's economy, trade and industrial output through quantitative analysis, which is helpful to find the development path of domestic and international double cycles, and provides data basis for the government to propose corresponding incentive policies.

This paper adopts the global trade analysis model in the computable general equilibrium model, based on the macro data in the Global Trade Analysis database and the statistical database of the World Bank, and builds a global trade analysis model in line with the current economic operation through production models, consumption models, trade and global transportation models and macro-economic closure system. The policy simulation is carried out from the two aspects of tariff barrier and non-tariff barrier. The simulation results show that the influence of non-tariff barriers and tariff barriers on the economic scale, trade scale and industrial development of China and other member countries is weakened successively. The combination of tariff reduction and trade facilitation will significantly increase the size of member economies and trade; The simultaneous effect of tariffs and technical barriers to trade will significantly promote the expansion of economic scale and trade scale of member countries. The reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers also have a positive role in promoting China's GDP and import and export scale, and the role of technical barriers to trade is particularly significant. Tariff reduction and trade facilitation will greatly increase China's exports of food crops, resource extraction industries and non-ferrous metals to the member States. At the same time, imports of computers and electronic equipment, chemical raw materials, plastics and rubber products will shift from non-member states to member States. The reduction of technical barriers to trade will shift China's manufacturing industry from non-member countries to member countries. Finally, in view of the above conclusions, China can use the RCEP agreement to optimize the industrial and trade structure, promote domestic circulation, make up for technical shortcomings, open up both domestic and international markets, complete the upgrading of the industrial chain, and achieve high-quality development of economy, trade and industry.