统计与数据科学学院知识库

近年来，随着经济全球化和区域一体化的不断深入，国际国内市场竞争不断加剧，产业转移不仅是世界经济发展的主要特征，也是我国广泛参与世界经济的迫切需要。但我国东中西部地区发展各异，东部地区社会成本巨大，中西部地区存在着生态环境脆弱，资源环境供给不足等诸多问题。因此本文旨在研究我国城市承接产业转移示范区对绿色发展效率的影响路径，从而为我国实现经济发展和生态环境的“双赢”提供理论基础。

文章首先分析了承接产业转移示范区的现状，并测度了我国各地级市的绿色发展效率。一方面通过分析示范区的现实情况，发现其取得了显著的政策效果和建设成效；另一方面利用存在非期望产出的超效率SBM-DEA模型对我国283个地级市的绿色发展效率进行测度，并从时间和空间的角度分别探究城市绿色发展效率的分异特征。时间上，分析了2006年至2019年全国各地区绿色发展效率的波动趋势，结果表明，各地区绿色发展效率总体呈现波动下降的趋势，并多在2010年变化最为明显；空间上，利用全局莫兰指数发现研究区域绿色发展效率存在明显的空间相关性，并对研究区域进行空间可视化分析，发现近年来东部地区的绿色发展效率高于中西部地区，且示范区内城市的整体绿色发展效率较低。

在测度城市绿色发展效率的基础上，利用多时点DID研究国家级承接产业转移示范区对示范区所在城市的政策效应，经过一系列的平行趋势检验、稳健性检验、异质性检验后，回归结果表明承接产业转移示范区能够有效地促进地区绿色发展效率的提升，但具有一定的滞后性，且政策效果不具有持久性。进一步，利用Malmquist指数分解的方法研究承接产业转移示范区对绿色发展效率影响的实现路径。回归结果表明，承接产业转移示范区的成立主要通过规模效应对绿色发展效率产生积极影响，但示范区的成立对当地的技术变动产生了不利影响。

In recent years, with the deepening of economic globalization and regional integration, international and domestic market competition has intensified. Industrial transfer is not only a major feature of world economic development, but also an urgent need for China to participate widely in the world economy. However, the development of China's eastern, central, and western regions is different, with huge social costs in the eastern region. There are many problems in the central and western regions, such as fragile ecological environment, insufficient supply of resources and environment, and so on. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to study the impact of urban industrial transfer demonstration zones on green development efficiency in China, so as to provide a theoretical basis for achieving "win-win" economic development and ecological environment in China.

Firstly, the thesis analyzes the current situation of the demonstration areas for undertaking industrial transfer, and measures the green development efficiency of cities at all levels in China. On the one hand, by analyzing the reality of the demonstration area, we found that it has achieved remarkable policy and construction effects; On the other hand, we use the super efficiency SBM-DEA model with unexpected output to measure the green development efficiency of 283 prefecture level cities in China, and explore the differentiation characteristics of urban green development efficiency from the perspective of time and space. In terms of time, from the perspective of the whole country, the east, the middle and the west, and the demonstration area, the results show that the green development efficiency of each region has a general trend of fluctuating decline, and most of the changes are most obvious in 2010; In terms of space, it is found that the green development efficiency of the study area has obvious spatial correlation by using the global Moran index, and it is found that the green development efficiency of the eastern region is higher than that of the central and western regions in recent years, and the overall green development efficiency of cities in the demonstration area is low.

On the basis of measuring the urban green development efficiency, the multi time point DID is used to study the policy effect of the national industrial transfer demonstration zone on the city where the demonstration zone is located. After a series of parallel trend tests, robustness tests, and heterogeneity tests, the regression results show that the industrial transfer demonstration zone can effectively promote the regional green development efficiency, but it has a certain lag, and the policy effect is not durable. Further, the Malmquist index decomposition method is used to study the realization path of the impact of undertaking industrial transfer demonstration zones on green development efficiency. The regression results show that the establishment of the demonstration area for undertaking industrial transfer has a positive impact on the green development efficiency mainly through the scale effect, but the establishment of the demonstration area has a negative impact on the local technology change.