国际经济与贸易学院知识库

经过改革开放四十余年的发展，中国经济发展进入了新常态，由高速增长阶段进入了中高速发展阶段，中共十九大提出了实现经济高质量发展的要求，二十大又提出了推进中国式现代化建设的任务。实现高质量发展的核心便是推动中国的三次产业结构的现代化和专业化，建设现代化产业体系也离不开推动产业结构优化升级。因此推动中国新一轮产业结构升级既是高质量发展的应有之义，也是建立现代化产业体系的必经之路。一国进行产业结构升级的路径有很多，无论是经典理论还是各国实践都表明对外直接投资（OFDI）是促进产业结构升级的有效方式之一。中国的OFDI发展迅速，势头良好，尤其是2000年之后，中国采取“渐进式”放松管制的策略，对外直接投资额一路高涨，逐步成为第一大资本输出国，其带来的各种经济效应与产业结构升级有着密切的关系。其中，进口效应是便是其中之一，而中国进口贸易发展势头良好，尤其是入世后，中国进口贸易的增长率一度超过全球进口贸易的增长率。因此探究中国OFDI的进口贸易中介效应与产业结构升级之间的关系有着很强的现实意义。

基于此本文选取中国1990年至2020年的数据进行全样本实证研究，检验OFDI与产业结构升级之间的关系是否显著，检验进口贸易的中介效应是否存在。并做分样本分析，基于东道国的不同和行业类别探究OFDI的进口贸易中介效应对产业结构升级影响的异质性体现。

实证结果表明，OFDI与产业结构升级之间的关系是显著的，并且二者呈现显著的正相关关系；进口贸易的中介效应存在并显著，说明中国的OFDI可以通过进口贸易促进产业结构升级。最后根据本文实证结果，总结结论并提出相关政策建议，以期助力中国实现高质量发展的要求和加快构建现代化产业体系。

After more than 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economic development has entered a new normal, from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of medium-high speed development. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the requirement of achieving high-quality economic development, and the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the task of promoting Chinese-style modernization. The core to achieve high-quality development is to promote the modernization and specialization of China's three industrial structures. Therefore, promoting a new round of industrial structure upgrading in China is not only the necessary for high-quality development, but also the only way to establish a modern industrial system. There are many ways for a country to upgrade its industrial structure, and OFDI is one of them. China's OFDI has developed rapidly and has a good momentum. Especially after 2000, China adopted the strategy of "gradual" deregulation, and its foreign direct investment has been rising all the way, gradually becoming the largest capital exporter.Among them, the import effect is one of them, and China's import trade has a good momentum of development, especially after entering the WTO, the growth rate of China's import trade once exceeded that of global import trade. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to explore the relationship between the mediating effect of import trade and the upgrading of industrial structure of China's OFDI.

Based on this, this paper selects China's data from 1990 to 2020 for full-sample empirical research to test whether the relationship between OFDI and industrial structure upgrading is significant, and whether the mediating effect of import trade exists. Sub-sample analysis is also conducted to explore the heterogeneity of the mediating effect of OFDI's import trade on the upgrading of industrial structure based on different host countries and industry categories.

The empirical results show that the relationship between OFDI and industrial structure upgrading is significant, and there is a significant positive correlation between the two, and the mediating effect of import trade exists, indicating that China's OFDI can promote the upgrading of industrial structure, and the mediating effect of OFDI on import trade is significant. This paper summarizes the conclusions and puts forward relevant policy suggestions, so as to help China achieve the requirements of high-quality development and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system.