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技术进步为人类文明发展带来不竭动力的同时，也对劳动力就业产生了一定影响。工业机器人是人工智能时代背景下的新兴技术进步，也是制造强国战略中所提及的重要支撑设备，近年来我国工业机器人应用广泛，安装量和保有量连续多年位居世界首位，其在为制造业转型升级提供重要抓手的同时，也在影响着制造业的劳动力就业，本文针对这种影响展开研究。

首先梳理了工业机器人、制造业就业以及技术进步对就业影响的相关文献，并结合理论基础分析了工业机器人对制造业就业影响的作用机理。其次通过国际机器人联盟数据对我国工业机器人的应用现状以及产业发展现状进行分析，再通过我国制造业数据对制造业的就业现状进行分析。最后是实证分析，基于我国30个省份2010-2019年的省级面板数据，运用双固定效应模型实证研究工业机器人的应用对我国制造业就业的影响，并通过iv-2sls方法处理内生性问题。得到如下结论：第一，工业机器人对就业的影响既有替代效应，也有创造效应，其中创造效应包括生产力提高和岗位创造两个方面。第二，工业机器人在我国主要应用于汽车行业和电子电气行业，我国工业机器人产业存在缺乏核心技术积累、配套能力不强、人才储备不足等问题。第三，我国制造业就业主要集中在东部沿海几个省份，在人员构成上表现为技能型劳动力逐年增加。第四，在实证研究中发现，我国工业机器人应用产生的创造效应大于替代效应，总效应为促进就业，具体表现为每千人所拥有的工业机器人数量增加一台，制造业劳动力就业增加1.72%，然后从剔除部分样本、选择不同时间间隔两方面对实证结果进行稳健性检验，验证了所得结论的可靠性。再根据我国区域的划分对东、中、西、东北地区作异质性分析发现，东北地区工业机器人对就业的促进作用最大，其次是西部地区和东部地区，在中部地区工业机器人对就业表现为负向影响。

针对所得结论，本文提出如下政策建议：提高工业机器人应用水平，充分发挥就业创造效应；加快技术研发，实现人与机器更好融合；大力培养高技能人才，建立定向培养机制；完善社会保障体系，稳妥解决就业替代影响。

Technological progress has brought inexhaustible impetus to the development of human civilization, but it also has a certain impact on labor employment. Industrial robots are the progress of emerging technologies in the era of artificial intelligence and important support equipment mentioned in the strategy of manufacturing power. In recent years, industrial robots have been widely used in our country, and the installation quantity and total quantity have ranked first in the world for many consecutive years. While providing an important grip for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, it also affects the labor employment in the manufacturing industry. This paper studies this effect.

Firstly, relevant literatures on industrial robots, manufacturing employment and the impact of technological progress on employment are reviewed, and the mechanism of the impact of industrial robots on manufacturing employment is analyzed based on relevant theories. Secondly, through the relevant data of international robot federation, the application status and industry development status of Chinese industrial robot are analyzed, and then the manufacturing industry employment situation is analyzed. Finally, the empirical analysis is based on the provincial panel data of 30 provinces from 2010 to 2019. The dual fixed effect model is used to empirically study the impact of the application of industrial robots on manufacturing employment, and the endogenous problem is dealt with by iv-2sls method.

The following conclusions are drawn: First, the impact of industrial robots on employment has both substitution effect and creation effect, which includes productivity improvement and job creation. Second, industrial robots are mainly applied in the automobile industry and electronic and electrical industry in our country. Our industrial robots industry has problems such as lack of core technology accumulation, weak supporting ability and insufficient reserves of talents. Thirdly, manufacturing employment in our country is mainly concentrated in the east coastal provinces, which is reflected in the personnel composition of the skilled labor force increasing year by year. Fourthly, it is found in the empirical study that the creation effect generated by the application of industrial robots in China is greater than the substitution effect. The total effect is to promote employment, which is reflected in the increase of one industrial robot per thousand people and the increase of 1.72% of labor employment in the manufacturing industry. Then, the robustness test of the empirical results is conducted from the two aspects of removing part of samples and selecting different time intervals. The reliability of the conclusion is verified. Based on the heterogeneity analysis of the east, middle, west and northeast regions, it is found that industrial robots have the largest promoting effect on employment in the northeast region, followed by the western region and the eastern region. In the central region, industrial robots have a negative effect on employment.

According to the conclusions, the following policy suggestions are put forward: to improve the application level of industrial robots and give full play to the effect of job creation; Accelerate technology research and development to achieve a better integration of human and machine; Cultivate highly skilled personnel vigorously and establish orientation training mechanism; We will improve the social security system and prudently address the impact of employment substitution.