国际经济与贸易学院知识库

摘  要
近年来，我国服务业发展速度较快，但与发达国家相比短板依旧明显。我国服务业供给水平与国际市场需求相比还存在一定差距，这说明我国要想在国际竞争中占据优势地位，就必须提升服务业的供给水平，这也同时说明我国在服务业这一领域还存在着非常大的进步空间。党的二十大报告提出：“构建优质高效的服务业新体系，推动现代服务业同先进制造业、现代农业深度融合。”加快推进服务业转型升级一直是当前我国政府工作中的重点。服务业的转型升级离不开人口的支撑，“七普”数据显示我国少子化和老龄化的现象日益加重。服务业的转型升级会直接受到人口年龄结构的影响，同时人口年龄结构的变动也会通过影响社会劳动生产率、消费需求和技术创新，进而对服务业转型升级产生影响。
本文采用双向固定效应模型分析我国服务业转型升级如何受到人口年龄结构的影响。同时本文还对劳动生产率、消费需求和技术创新三个变量进行中介效应检验，分析我国人口年龄结构变化对服务业转型的影响机制。得出的主要结论为：
1.少年儿童抚养比的提高对服务业转型升级有促进作用，而老龄人口抚养比的增加则会阻碍服务业转型升级。
2.少年儿童抚养比和老龄人口抚养比的变动会通过劳动生产率、消费需求和技术创新来影响服务业的转型升级。
3.从服务业内部细分行业来看，少年儿童抚养比的提高会促进生产性服务业和生活性服务业的转型升级；而老龄人口抚养比的提高则会阻碍生产性服务业和生活性服务业的转型升级。

关键词：人口年龄结构 服务业转型升级 中介效应检验

Abstract
In recent years, our service industry develops rapidly, but compared with developed countries, the shortboard is still obvious. There is a gap between the supply level of Chinese service industry and that of international market demand, which shows that there is still much room for improvement in Chinese service industry. The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed: "We will build a new system of high-quality and efficient service industries, and deeply integrate modern service industries with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture." Accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the service industry has been the focus of the current government work. The transformation and upgrading of the service industry cannot be separated from the support of the population. The "seven-prong" data shows that the phenomenon of fewer children and aging is getting worse. The transformation and upgrading of the service industry will be directly affected by the age structure of the population, and the change of the age structure of the population will also have an impact on the transformation and upgrading of the service industry through affecting social labor productivity, consumer demand and technological innovation.
This paper uses double fixed effect model to analyze the influence of population age structure on service industry transformation and upgrading. At the same time, this paper also tested the intermediary effect of labor productivity, consumption demand and technological innovation, and analyzed the influence mechanism of population age structure change on the service industry transformation. The main conclusions are as follows:
1. The increase of the dependency ratio between children and children will promote the transformation and upgrading of the service industry, while the increase of the dependency ratio of the elderly population will hinder the transformation and upgrading of the service industry.
2. Changes in the child-child dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio will affect the transformation and upgrading of the service industry through labor productivity, consumer demand and technological innovation.
3. From the perspective of the internal segmentation of the service industry, the improvement of the child-support ratio will promote the transformation and upgrading of producer services and consumer services; However, the increase of old-age dependency ratio will hinder the transformation and upgrading of producer services and consumer services.

Keywords: Population age structure; Transformation and upgrading of the service sector; Mediation effect test