经济学院知识库

       随着国内外政治、经济、社会和技术环境等方面的不断变化发展，一些更加 

具有不确定性的词汇成为了当前整体发展格局的代名词，比如动荡性、复杂性等 

词汇，进而使得区域经济韧性日益成为各个国家和地区在经济发展过程中放在重 

要位置的优先策略选择。尤其是在当前受到新冠疫情的影响，世界各个国家和地 

区间的矛盾和摩擦日益激化，进一步增加了对于未来经济发展预期的困难性和对 

于抵抗经济风险能力的重视性。在当今经济发展形势下，经济韧性水平成为了衡 

量一个经济体是否能实现或保持经济高质量发展的一项关键指标，同时也是其在 

长期内实现经济可持续增长的一项重要保障。因此，对于区域经济韧性与经济高 

质量发展之间的水平测度和因果关系分析成为一个重要的研究点。 

       长期以来，受到自然条件和经济社会制度的制约，黄河流域的资源开发一直 

处于保护大于利用的状态，整个流域的经济发展潜力未得到充分的激发和利用。 

考虑到黄河流域庞大的的人口规模，其生态安全屏障和资源能源集聚地作用显得 

更加重要，流域内抵御生态环境和经济社会等各方面冲击以及恢复到冲击前状态 

的能力即黄河流域的区域经济韧性由此成为黄河流域高质量发展的一个重要考 

量点。因此，通过建立模型对黄河流域区域经济韧性和经济高质量发展水平进行 

测度并对其相互关系进一步研究分析可以为黄河流域经济高质发展提供新的途 

径，同时也为相关研究提供新的思路。 

       研究主要基于黄河流域 39 个地级市 2010—2019 年的面板数据，运用因子分析和耦合协调度方法研究区域经济韧性与经济高质量发展的发展水平和协同效 

应，采用格兰杰因果检验等模型探究区域经济韧性对于经济高质量发展的影响机 

理。主要结论有：第一，研究所选取的样本地区整体的区域经济韧性水平正处于 

稳步持续上升的阶段，不同样本地区之间的区域经济韧性水平和经济高质量发展 

水平也呈现出了明显的分布特征；第二，2010-2019 年十年间黄河流域区域经济

韧性与经济高质量发展的耦合协调系数总体上处于稳步增长趋势，说明流域内部 

区域经济韧性和经济高质量发展之间的协调程度逐渐趋向更加良好的状态，两者 

之间的相互关联程度表现出收敛性增长；第三，在经济长期发展中，区域经济韧 

性与经济高质量发展互为因果关系，短期内经济韧性单向显著促进经济高质量发 

展；第四，就黄河流域的特殊性来看，区域经济韧性对经济高质量发展的影响路

径主要可以概括为区域经济韧性的抵抗力层面为经济高质量发展提供了重要的 

保护屏障，其恢复力层面为经济高质量发展提供了动能培育的基础，最后是其进 

化力的创新驱动作用。因此，未来的新发展时期黄河流域经济高质量发展应该加 

强顶层设计，立足区域间差异“补短板增优势”，制定更加灵活多样的差异化发 

展策略，通过加强数字经济基础设施建设等方式形成黄河流域经济高质量发展的 

新格局。

With the continuous changes in the political, economic, social and technological environment at home and abroad, some more uncertain terms have become synonymous with the current overall development pattern, such as turbulence and complexity, which in turn makes the regional economy more resilient. It has increasingly become a priority strategic choice for various countries and regions to place in an important position in the process of economic development. Especially under the influence of the new crown epidemic, the contradictions and frictions between countries and regions in the world are increasingly intensified, which further increases the difficulty of anticipating future economic development and the importance of the ability to resist economic risks. Under the current economic development situation, the level of economic resilience has become a key indicator to measure whether an economy can achieve or maintain high-quality economic development, and it is also an important guarantee for an economy to achieve long-term sustainable development. Therefore, the level measurement and causal relationship analysis between regional economic resilience and high-quality economic development has become an important research point.

For a long time, restricted by natural conditions and economic andsocial systems, the development of resources in the Yellow River Basin has been in a state of greater protection than utilization, and the economic development potential of the entire basin has not been fully stimulated and utilized. Considering the huge population size of the Yellow River Basin, its role as an ecological security barrier and a gathering place for resources and energy is even more important. The ability of the Basin to resist ecological, environmental, economic and social impacts and restore to the state before the impact is the regional economy of the Yellow River Basin. Resilience has thus become an important consideration for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. Therefore, establishing a model to measure the regional economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin and further analyzing its relationship with the high-quality economic development of the Yellow River Basin can provide a new approach for the high-quality economic development of the Yellow River Basin, as well as new ideas for related research. This study is mainly based on the panel data of 39 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019, using factor analysis and coupling coordination degree methods to study the overall development and synergistic effects of regional economic resilience and high-quality economic development, using Granger causality test And a variety of panel regression models to explore the impact mechanism and transmission path of regional economic resilience on high-quality economic development. The main conclusions are as follows: First, the overall regional economic resilience level of the sample regions selected by the study is in a stage of steady and continuous increase. The regional economic resilience level and high-quality economic development level between different sample regions also showed obvious distribution characteristics; second, the coupling coordination coefficient of regional economic resilience and high-quality economic development in the Yellow River Basin in the ten years from 2010 to 2019 was generally It is in a steady growth trend, indicating that the degree of coordination between regional economic resilience and high-quality economic development within the basin is gradually becoming better, and the degree of correlation between the two shows a convergent growth; third, in the long-term economic development , regional economic resilience and high-quality economic development are mutually causal, and in the short term, economic resilience significantly promotes high-quality economic development in one direction; fourth, in terms of the particularity of the Yellow River Basin, the impact path of regional economic resilience on high-quality economic development It can be summarized that the resistance level of regional economic resilience provides an important protective barrier for high-quality economic development, the resilience level provides the basis for cultivating kinetic energy for high-quality economic development, and finally is the innovation driving role of its evolutionary force. Therefore, in the new development period in the future, the high-quality economic development of the Yellow River Basin should strengthen the top-level design, based on regional differences to "make up for shortcomings and increase advantages", formulate more flexible and diverse differentiated development strategies, and form through strengthening the construction of digital economic infrastructure. A new pattern of high-quality economic development in the Yellow River Basin.