国际经济与贸易学院知识库

    自2020年9月习近平总书记在联合国大会提出我国“30·60”碳达峰和碳中和愿景目标以来，实现人与自然的和谐相处，经济社会的可持续发展，成为我国当前乃至“十四五”时期国民经济增长和绿色低碳经济转型的关注焦点。与此同时，“碳达峰和碳中和”时间表的排定，对当下的经济发展意味着新的压力和挑战，相较于主要发达国家已经实现排放和经济脱钩的事实，我国当前仍然是世界上最大的能源消费国，碳排放量依然处于增长阶段。因此，在这种情况下，发展新能源产业以减少传统化石能源消费对生态环境的破坏，成为我国兼顾环境保护尤其是控制碳排放和经济发展的重要手段。

    本文首先详细梳理了新能源产业与碳排放的相关文献，为后续分析积累文献基础与理论基础。并基于相关经济学理论，发现新能源产业可以通过能源结构效应、产业结构效应、经济规模效应影响碳排放水平。其次，通过构建多元回归模型，对我国2003-2020年30个省级面板数据进行基准回归，实证分析新能源产业对碳排放的影响作用；并对基准回归结果进行多种稳健性检验，以确保基准回归结果的稳健性与可靠性。然后，运用中介效应模型，验证新能源产业对碳排放的影响机制。在此基础上，将我国30个省级单位按不同区域进行样本异质性分析，以求获得更丰富的实证结论。最后，基于地理距离、低碳技术和环保人才三种空间溢出途径，通过构建空间面板模型，验证新能源产业对碳排放空间层面的影响作用，探索新能源产业对碳排放的空间溢出效应。 

    本文研究结果表明：第一，运用多元面板回归模型测度新能源产业对碳排放的影响作用发现，新能源产业能够有效抑制二氧化碳排放；第二，运用中介效应模型分析新能源产业对碳排放的影响机制为通过能源结构效应、产业结构效应、经济规模效应降低碳排放水平；第三，通过构建空间面板模型测度新能源产业对碳排放的空间溢出效应发现，新能源产业不仅能够降低自身的碳排放水平，也能够有效降低周边省份的碳排放水平。最后，基于这些结论提出相关对策建议，以供部门决策参考。

    At the same time, the schedule of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization" also means new pressure and challenges to the current economic development. Compared with the fact that major developed countries have achieved decoupling between carbon emissions and economy, China is still the largest energy consumer in the world, and carbon emissions are still in the growth stage. Therefore, in this case, the development of new energy industry to reduce the damage of traditional fossil energy consumption to the ecological environment has become an important means to give consideration to environmental protection, especially carbon emission control and economic development.

    Firstly, this paper combs the relevant literature on new energy industry and carbon emission in detail, and accumulates the literature basis and theoretical basis for subsequent analysis. Based on relevant economic theories, it is found that the new energy industry can affect the carbon emission level through energy structure effect, industrial structure effect and economic scale effect. Secondly, by constructing a multiple regression model, this paper makes a benchmark regression on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2020, and empirically analyzes the impact of new energy industry on carbon emission; A variety of robustness tests are carried out on the benchmark regression results to ensure the robustness and reliability of the benchmark regression results. Then use the intermediary effect of carbon emission mechanism to verify the impact on new energy industry. On this basis, the sample heterogeneity of 30 provincial units in China is analyzed according to different regions in order to obtain richer empirical conclusions. Finally, based on geographical distance, low-carbon technology and environmental protection talents, this paper constructs a spatial panel model to verify the impact of the new energy industry on the spatial level of carbon emission, and explore the spatial spillover effect of the new energy industry on carbon emission.

The results of this paper show that: first, the impact of new energy industry on carbon emission is calculated by using multiple panel regression model, which shows that new energy industry can effectively inhibit carbon dioxide emission; Second, using the intermediary effect model to analyze the impact mechanism of new energy industry on carbon emission, it shows that the impact mechanism of new energy industry on carbon emission is to reduce the level of carbon emission through energy structure effect, industrial structure effect and economic scale effect; Third, by constructing a spatial panel model to measure the spatial spillover effect of the new energy industry on carbon emissions, it shows that the new energy industry can not only reduce its own carbon emission level, but also effectively reduce the carbon emission level of surrounding provinces. Finally, based on these conclusions, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for department decision-making reference.