会计学院知识库

The pharmaceutical industry has always been the foundation of national development, and the concept of national health has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. The diversity of market demand has accelerated the competition among enterprises and the introduction and implementation of a large number of medical reform policies, which undoubtedly aggravated the risk problems of the pharmaceutical industry, and attracted the close attention of many enterprises and stakeholders. For enterprises, if they want to gain a firm foothold in the fierce competition and achieve stable and sustainable development, risk prevention is particularly important. Only through an objective and comprehensive evaluation of financial risks can risk prevention become accurate and effective. Taking Northeast Pharmaceuticals as an example, this paper uses the principal component + Logistic regression method to establish a financial risk evaluation model for the pharmaceutical industry, and through this model, comprehensively evaluates the financial risks of Northeast Pharmaceuticals, and puts forward corresponding risk prevention measures.

This paper firstly expounds comprehensive risk management, capital structure and portfolio theory. Secondly, it briefly introduces and analyzes the basic situation and financial status of Northeast Pharmaceuticals, and on this basis, initially identifies and analyzes the existing financial risks of the enterprise from the three dimensions of financing, investment and operation. The analysis shows that Northeast Pharmaceutical has problems such as unreasonable capital structure, weak short-term solvency, less investment in research and development, and poor management of accounts receivable. Then, based on a large number of industry data, the method of principal component + Logistic regression is used to establish the financial risk evaluation model of the pharmaceutical industry. It is mainly divided into three steps: (1) Preliminarily select 43 indicators, and after the correlation and significance test, the selected 28 indicators are included in the financial risk indicator system; (2) Select the first time from 2015 to 2020 due to financial reasons There are 42 listed manufacturing companies and 76 listed pharmaceutical companies that have not been specially treated. They are divided into 100 research samples and 18 test samples; (3) Dimensionality reduction of the above data through principal component analysis Six principal components were extracted, and the logistic regression model of the pharmaceutical industry was established. Then, the established industry financial risk evaluation model is applied to Northeast Pharmaceuticals, and back-testing, future forecasting and industry comparison analysis are carried out. The study found that the financial risk score of Northeast Pharmaceuticals ranks 72, which is in the downstream of the industry, and there are problems such as higher financing, investment risks and lower operating risks. Finally, in response to the above problems, this paper proposes that Northeast Pharmaceuticals should pay close attention to policy forms, expand funding channels, improve capital structure, scientific investment management, further increase R&D investment, and continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency to prevent corporate financial risks.