国际经济与贸易学院知识库

    我国是制造业大国和制成品出口贸易大国，其中汽车出口在我国制成品出口中占据重要份额，是拉动我国出口增长的支柱产品。但是，随着近年来传统国际汽车市场竞争的加剧和贸易保护主义的抬头，我国汽车出口压力不断增大，出口增长乏力，因此积极拓展新兴出口市场成为我国汽车出口贸易发展的必然要求。与此同时，欧亚经济联盟各成员国均是我国对外贸易合作的重要对象，其成员国经济发展迅速，具有较大的汽车需求规模，并已逐步推行了贸易便利化政策，具备我国汽车出口新兴潜力市场的基本条件。

    本文在选题相关文献综述的基础之上，首先从出口规模、市场结构和出口特点三个方面分析了我国对欧亚经济联盟汽车出口的现状，其次从理论上分析了影响我国汽车出口的相关因素，最后构建引入贸易非效率项的随机前沿引力模型测算了我国对欧亚经济联盟汽车出口的贸易潜力值，并实证分析了汽车出口中贸易非效率项的影响因素，以识别我国对欧亚经济联盟汽车出口的主要障碍。实证结果表明：第一，我国汽车出口至欧亚经济联盟的总规模增长迅速；第二，我国与进口国的国内生产总值、进口国的人口数量、我国与进口国是否拥有共同边界、是否为同一经济组织成员等因素正向促进了我国对欧亚经济联盟的汽车出口规模，而我国的人口数量、我国与进口国之间的地理距离反向抑制了我国对欧亚经济联盟国家的汽车出口规模；第三，我国对欧亚经济联盟国家的汽车出口贸易潜力值存在较大的国别差异，其中对俄罗斯出口潜力最大，对亚美尼亚出口潜力最小；第四，我国对欧亚经济联盟汽车出口的实际贸易值与贸易潜力值之间的差距主要是由贸易非效率项引起的，而我国对欧亚经济联盟国家的直接投资水平、进口国的实际有效汇率水平、贸易自由度、货币自由度、政府效率等因素可以有效抑制汽车出口中的贸易非效率因素，有利于促进我国对欧亚经济联盟汽车出口的贸易潜力的实现。据此，本文对我国汽车出口欧亚经济联盟提出了如下建议：优化我国汽车产品出口贸易结构，提升出口供给能力；加快地区间互联互通的基础设施建设；加大并优化我国在欧亚经济联盟国家的投资力度与投资结构；因国制宜，差异化开拓欧亚经济联盟国家市场。

    China is a major manufacturing country and a major exporter of finished products. Among them, automobile exports account for an important share of China's exports of finished products and are the pillar products that drive China's export growth. However, with the intensification of competition in the traditional international automobile market and the rise of trade protectionism in recent years, the pressure on China's automobile exports has continued to increase, and the export growth has been weak. Therefore, actively expanding emerging export markets has become an inevitable requirement for the development of China's automobile export trade. At the same time, each member state of the Eurasian Economic Union is an important object of China's foreign trade cooperation. Its member states have developed rapidly in economy and have a large demand for automobiles. They have gradually implemented trade facilitation policies and have the ability to export automobiles from China. Basic conditions for emerging potential markets.

    Based on the literature review of the topic selection, this paper firstly analyzes the current situation of China's automobile exports to the Eurasian Economic Union from three aspects: export scale, market structure and export characteristics, and then theoretically analyzes the relevant factors affecting China's automobile exports. Finally, a stochastic frontier gravity model incorporating trade inefficiency was constructed to measure the trade potential value of China's auto exports to the Eurasian Economic Union, and an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the trade inefficiency in auto exports was conducted to identify China's impact on Eurasian economy. The main obstacle to the export of automobiles in the Economic Union. The empirical results show that: first, the total scale of China's automobile exports to the Eurasian Economic Union has grown rapidly; second, the GDP of China and the importing country, the population of the importing country, whether China and the importing country have a common border, and whether Factors such as members of the same economic organization positively promote the scale of China's automobile exports to the Eurasian Economic Union, while China's population and the geographical distance between China and the importing countries inhibit China's automobile exports to the Eurasian Economic Union countries. scale; third, there are large country-to-country differences in the potential value of China's auto export trade to the Eurasian Economic Union countries, of which the export potential to Russia is the largest, and the export potential to Armenia is the smallest; fourth, China's auto exports to the Eurasian Economic Union The gap between the actual trade value and the potential value of trade is mainly caused by the non-efficiency term of trade, while China's direct investment in the Eurasian Economic Union countries, the real effective exchange rate level of importing countries, trade freedom, currency freedom , government efficiency and other factors can effectively suppress the trade inefficiency factors in automobile exports, which is conducive to promoting the realization of the trade potential of China's automobile exports to the Eurasian Economic Union. Based on this, this paper puts forward the following suggestions for China's automobile exports to the Eurasian Economic Union: optimize the export trade structure of China's automobile products, improve the export supply capacity; accelerate the infrastructure construction of inter-regional interconnection; The investment intensity and investment structure of the Union countries; according to the national conditions, differentiate the market of the Eurasian Economic Union countries.