MBA教育中心知识库

2021年，人工智能技术作为智能化转型的核心生产力，所带来的创新增量价值引人瞩目，产业应用规模不断突破，数字经济加速器的产业地位逐步稳固。行业领先企业也多在算法、算力、数据三大基础层要素上做整体布局，加速推进人工智能产业进入效率化、工业化生产阶段。2021年3月我国十四五规划纲要出台，提出“打造数字经济新优势”的建设方针并强调了人工智能等新兴数字产业在提高国家竞争力上的重要价值。规划纲要指出要充分发挥海量数据和丰富应用场景优势，促进数字技术与实体经济深度融合，赋能传统产业转型升级，以数据驱动生产过程优化，催生新产业、新业态、新模式。数字经济的高速发展为人工智能发展创造了良好的经济与技术环境；同时，人工智能作为关键性的新型信息基础设施，也被视为拉动我国数字经济发展的新动能。

在这众多的企业中，有一些独角兽企业是借着人工智能的热度而使得其市场价值高于实际价值，还有一些拥有核心人工智能技术的独角兽企业暂未展现其发展潜力导致企业价值被低估，因此，合理的测算企业价值非常重要。本文以红软科技公司为例，针对如何对人工智能企业进行合理地估值进行深入的探讨和研究。首先，传统的企业价值评估方法其实并不适用于高新的人工智能企业，其原因主要是：第一，人工智能企业在发展早中期基本处于亏损状态，其营业净利润、净利润、经营性现金流净值大多（排除特殊情况）均为负值，又因亏损无股利可分配，因此传统估值方法如折现现金流法、自由现金流贴现法、股利折现法和经济附加值法等是不适用的；第二，人工智能企业涉及的业务繁多且其虽亏损多年但仍保持高市值，而且企业的领导力、企业文化等无形资产几乎千差万别，难以确定因素很多，找到合适的可比企业几乎不可能，因此传统估值方法并不适用。本文主要通过介绍实物期权法，分析实物期权法理论下的二叉树模型，通过对模型的应用范围、假设条件和参数的选取测试结果，结合与传统估值方法的对比，得出结论实物期权法是最适合新兴的人工智能独角兽企业评估其企业价值的方法，其结果最接近于企业的实际价值。

In 2021, artificial intelligence technology, as the core productivity of intelligent transformation, will bring remarkable incremental value of innovation. The scale of industrial application will continue to break through, and the industrial status of digital economy accelerator will gradually become stable. Leading enterprises in the industry also make an overall layout on the three basic elements of algorithm, computing power and data, accelerating the ai industry into the stage of efficient and industrial production. In March 2021, the outline of China's 14th Five-year Plan was released, which proposed the construction guideline of "creating new advantages of digital economy" and emphasized the important value of artificial intelligence and other emerging digital industries in improving national competitiveness. The outline of the plan points out that we should give full play to the advantages of massive data and rich application scenarios, promote the deep integration of digital technology with the real economy, empower the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, optimize production processes with data, and foster new industries, new forms of business and new models. The rapid development of digital economy has created a good economic and technical environment for the development of artificial intelligence. At the same time, artificial intelligence, as a key new information infrastructure, is also regarded as a new driving force for the development of China's digital economy.

Among these enterprises, some Unicorn enterprises make their market value higher than the actual value by virtue of the popularity of artificial intelligence, and some Unicorn enterprises with core artificial intelligence technology have not shown their development potential, resulting in the undervaluation of enterprise value. Therefore, it is very important to reasonably calculate the enterprise value. Taking red soft technology company as an example, this paper makes an in-depth discussion and Research on how to reasonably value artificial intelligence enterprises. First of all, the traditional enterprise value evaluation methods are not applicable to high-tech artificial intelligence enterprises. The main reasons are as follows: first, artificial intelligence enterprises are basically in a state of loss in the early and medium term of development. Most of their net operating profit, net profit and net operating cash flow (excluding special circumstances) are negative. Moreover, there is no dividend distributable due to losses. Therefore, traditional valuation methods such as discounted cash flow method, discounted free cash flow method Dividend discount method and economic value-added method are not applicable; Second, AI enterprises involve a wide range of businesses, and although they have lost money for many years, they still maintain a high market value. Moreover, the enterprise's leadership, corporate culture and other intangible assets are almost different. It is difficult to determine many factors, and it is almost impossible to find a suitable comparable enterprise. Therefore, the traditional valuation method is not applicable. This paper mainly introduces the real option method and analyzes the binary tree model under the theory of real option method. Through the selection and test results of the application scope, assumptions and parameters of the model, combined with the comparison with the traditional valuation method, it is concluded that the real option method is the most suitable method for the emerging artificial intelligence Unicorn enterprise to evaluate its enterprise value, and its result is closest to the actual value of the enterprise.