会计学院知识库

摘要

当前，随着人工智能逐渐与各个产业相融合，其重要程度愈发明显，《2020年国务院政府工作报告》将人工智能纳入新型基础设施建设中，引发社会关注。在国家产业政策的支持和投资者的追捧下，资本市场人工智能板块的投融资活动、并购重组活动越来越多，市场对企业价值的评估需求也逐渐增加。对人工智能企业的价值进行合理评估，有助于给予市场投资者清晰的认识，避免其盲目投资，也能作为同行业公司进行企业价值评估时的参考。

基于科大讯飞股份有限公司在人工智能领域的代表性地位，论文采用案例分析法，选择科大讯飞作为评估对象进行研究。本文查阅了国内外相关文献资料，梳理了企业价值评估理论，对高新技术企业价值评估和实物期权法的使用进行了研究，归纳了评估方法的使用条件和优缺点，赞成将未来收益转化为价值的思路，指出传统评估法将企业经营管理看作静态过程，无法量化发展不确定性对企业价值的影响，故选择在现金流折现的基础上，采用二叉树期权定价模型进行研究。

在模型的构建上，本文首先以营业收入为切入点，逐步构建企业自由现金流二叉树；然后，将现金流折现来构建企业价值二叉树；最后，考虑到放弃期权情况，构建包含放弃期权价值的企业价值二叉树。在经过模型的应用分析后，本文使用PEG评估法判断出案例企业当前市值被高估，而评估所得企业价值低于企业市值，间接验证了评估结果的合理性。通过研究，本文认为：第一，二叉树模型比传统评估法更适合对人工智能行业处于成长期的企业进行估值；第二，二叉树模型实用性强，评估结果接近企业真实价值。

关键词：二叉树期权定价模型 企业价值评估 科大讯飞

Abstract

At present, with the gradual integration of artificial intelligence with various industries, its importance is becoming more and more obvious. The 2020 Report on the Work of the Government of The State Council has included artificial intelligence in the construction of new infrastructure, which has aroused social attention. Benefited by the support of national industrial policies and the pursuit of investors, the investment, financing and M & A activities in the field of artificial intelligence in the capital market are increasing day by day,and the market demand for enterprise value evaluation is also gradually increasing. Reasonable evaluation of the value of artificial intelligence enterprises is helpful to give market investors a clear understanding, avoid blind investment, and can also be used as a reference for the enterprise value evaluation of the same industry companies.

Based on the representative position of iFLYTEK in the field of artificial intelligence, this paper selects iFLYTEK as the evaluation object by using the method of case analysis. This paper combs the theory of enterprise value evaluation, studies the application of high-tech enterprise value evaluation method and real option method, summarizes the application conditions, advantages and disadvantages of evaluation method, and puts forward the value evaluation of high-tech enterprise This paper puts forward the idea of transforming future income into value, and points out that the traditional income method believes that the operation of enterprises is a static process. Because it is impossible to quantify the impact of development uncertainty on enterprise value, this paper selects the binary tree option pricing model based on discounted cash flow.In the construction of the model, firstly, taking the operating income as the starting point, this paper gradually constructs the binary tree of enterprise free cash flow. Then the cash flow is discounted and the binary tree of enterprise value is constructed; Finally, considering the abandonment of options, an enterprise value binary tree containing the value of abandonment options is constructed. Through the analysis of the application of the model, this paper uses the PEG evaluation method to judge that the current market value of the company is overestimated, and the value of the evaluated company is lower than the market value of the company, which indirectly proves the rationality of the evaluation results. The binary tree model is more suitable for evaluating the growing enterprises in the artificial intelligence industry than the traditional evaluation method; Second, the binary tree model is practical, and the evaluation results are close to the actual value of the enterprise.

Keywords:Binary tree option pricing model；IFLYTEK；Enterprise value