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随着互联网行业日新月异的发展，以及互联网行业规模效应递增的特殊性质，互联网行业在资本市场的活动也日趋频繁。表现为资本市场中互联网企业间的上市、并购重组等活动与日俱增，这也导致了市场上的投资者和企业管理者对互联网企业合理估值的需求愈加强烈。然而，互联网公司的经营方式、核心价值等都与传统产业有很大的不同，导致传统财务指标难以衡量互联网企业价值，说明基于传统财务指标的评估方法对互联网企业价值评估并不适用。所以大量学者开始将互联网企业价值核心的用户流量作为互联网企业价值评估的依据。而梅特卡夫定律的出现很好地将两者联系起来。由于互联网行业发展瞬息万变，存在高度的不确定性。虽然基于梅特卡夫定律的DEVA模型，能够运用户价值反应互联网企业价值，但是究其本质仍是单一情景下的用户数量预测分析。所以本文选择了情景分析法与DEVA模型结合，以减少DEVA模型在长期预测的不确定性。

本文选取美团作为研究对象，将情景分析法和梅特卡夫定律作为基础，以用户价值为核心的评估方法DEVA模型与降低预测不确定性的情景分析法相结合对其进行估值。具体而言，首先对美团进行介绍及行业分析，再依据影响用户流量的内外部因素分析，包括行业内的横向对比分析和未来可能出现影响用户流量的事件等，进行情境的构建预测可能出现的概率，再此基础上预测美团的ARPU值，从而计算出美团企业整体价值。最后，将美团估值的结果进行分析说明，希望本文能够为此类互联网企业的估值研究提供一些参考。

通过本文的研究，得到以下几点结论：首先是对互联网企业价值评估的相关研究的梳理以及互联网企业特点分析和商业模式分析，认为用户才是互联网企业的核心价值来源。其次，得出了情景分析法和DEVA估值模型相结合具体使用思路，主要由未来情景构建、确定每个情景对应概率、根据行业对比分析和历史数据预测互联网企业的月活跃用户数（MAU）、分析不同情景内容预测每用户平均收入（ARPU）、计算单个客户投入的初始资本（M）、用情景概率带入DEVA估值模型并根据模型计算公司的估值结果六个步骤组成。最后，本文将模型应用于高增长性和高不确定性的互联网企业美团中，根据评估结果分析，发现将情景分析法与DEVA 模型相结合的方法对美团这类互联网企业具有高适用性，本文的研究为此类互联网企业估值问题提供了新方案。

as the core, is combined with scenario analysis method to reduce forecast uncertainty to evaluate meituan. Specifically, first of all to introduce Meituan and industry analysis, its business into a take-away, to shop and wine Tours, new business three plates, on the basis of analysis the internal and external factors that affect user traffic, including horizontal comparative analysis in industry and in the future is likely to affect user traffic events, such as situation build forecast possible probability, On this basis, the ARPU value of Meituan is predicted to calculate the overall value of Meituan enterprises. Finally, the valuation results of Meituan are analyzed and explained, hoping that this paper can provide some reference for the valuation research of such Internet enterprises.

Through the research of this paper, we get the following conclusions: First, we sort out the relevant research on the value evaluation of Internet enterprises, analyze the characteristics of Internet enterprises and analyze the business model, and draw the conclusion that users are the source of the core value of Internet enterprises. Secondly, the specific idea of using scenario analysis method and DEVA valuation model is obtained. Is mainly composed of future scenarios to build each scenario is determined, the corresponding probability, according to industry analysis and historical data to predict the Internet companies monthly active users (MAU), analyze the different context forecasts predict average revenue per user (ARPU), calculation of individual clients in initial capital (M), the scenario probability into the DEVA valuation model and according to the model calculation The division's valuation results consist of six steps. Finally, the article applies model of high growth and high uncertainty of the Internet enterprise Meituan, according to the evaluation results analysis, found a DEVA scenario analysis with model of combining the methods of Meituan such platform type Internet companies with high applicability, in this paper, the research for this kind of Internet company valuation provides a new train of thought.