国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  缔结双边以及多边自由贸易区（FTA)一直是我国参与区域经济合作的重要途径，自新冠肺炎疫情发生以来，全球贸易持续低迷，积极推进FTA建设尤为关键。中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)作为中国对外建立的第一个FTA已经越过“黄金十年”，从贸易理论的发展到比较优势理论的拓展均表明产业比较优势在国际贸易实践中的核心地位。研究CAFTA对我国产业比较优势动态转化的影响能清楚了我国产业比较优势的动态转化方向以及实现转化的途径，由此对产业进行相关调整，使其在区域贸易中更具优势；此外，CAFTA的相关成果为我国升级自由贸易协定和为我国企业进行战略调整提供重要参考。

        本文首先对FTA的经济效应进行了梳理，据此对FTA作用于产业比较优势动态转化的相关影响机制进行总结归纳，为后文提供理论支撑，然后对CAFTA的发展现状和成果进行整理，接着计算中国不同类别产业的显示性比较优势指数（RCA）和建立马尔可夫转移矩阵观察比较优势的动态转化情况，对未来比较优势动态转化做出预测，最后建立OLS模型分析CAFTA产生的各种效应对产业比较优势动态转化的影响。结果发现：1.CAFTA主要通过技术进步效应、规模经济效应、要素积累、优化贸易壁垒的途径影响产业比较优势的动态转化。2.中国和东盟各国建立FTA以来在实现贸易规模扩大、投资规模扩大以及贸易壁垒优化等方面不断实现发展，这对我国扩大出口、获取技术溢出、实现规模经济和要素积累均有重要作用。3.不同类别产业的比较优势均出现动态转化，表明中国正经历产业结构升级，不同类型产业的比较优势在未来也将呈现不同方向的动态转化。其中服装纺织类产业、机电类产业、高新技术类产业的比较优势均产生不同程度的正向转化，且在未来以此态势继续保持；相较而言，农牧类产业的比较优势呈正向转化的趋势不够明显。4.CAFTA与中国产业比较优势的动态转化存在极显著的正相关关系，CAFTA能够帮助产业比较优势实现正向转化，促进产业完成进一步的升级发展。根据研究结果，本人认为未来国家应积极推动营商环境再优化和产业结构优化升级，企业应积极推动企业转型升级，提高国际竞争力。

关键词：CAFTA 产业发展 比较优势 动态转化 马尔可夫转移矩阵 OLS回归分析

       The conclusion of bilateral and multilateral free trade area (FTA) has always been an important way for China to participate in regional economic cooperation. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, global trade has been in a downturn, so it is particularly critical to actively promote FTA construction. As the first FTA of China's foreign construction, CAFTA has passed the "golden decade", which demonstrate that the core position of industrial comparative advantage in international trade practice from the development of trade theory to the expansion of comparative advantage theory. By studying the influence ofCA FTA on the dynamic transformation of comparative advantage of China’s industry, we can understand the direction of the dynamic transformation of China's industrial comparative advantage under the influence of CAFTA and the way to realize the transformation clearly, so as to adjust the industry and make it more advantageous in regional trade. In addition, the relevant achievements of CAFTA provide vital reference for China to upgrade free trade agreements and carry out strategic adjustment for Chinese enterprises.
         Firstly, this paper sorts out the economic effects of FTA, and summarizes the relevant influence mechanisms of FTA on the dynamic transformation of industrial comparative advantage to provide theoretical support for the following research; then it sorts out the development status and achievements of CAFTA; next, calculate different categories in China industry revealed RCA and build Markov transfer matrix to observe the dynamic conversion of comparative advantage, the dynamic comparative advantage transformation make predictions about the future; finally ,OLS model analysis of CAFTA to produce a variety of effects of industry on the effect of dynamic conversion of comparative advantage. The results imply that: 1.CAFTA affects the dynamic transformation of industrial Comparative Advantage through technological progress effect, scale economy effect, factor accumulation and trade barrier optimization mainly. 2. Since the establishment of CAFTA, China and ASEAN countries have shown significant development in realizing the expansion of trade scale, investment scale and optimization of trade barriers, which plays an important role in expanding China's export, obtaining technology spillover, realizing economies of scale and factor accumulation. 3. The dynamic transformation of the comparative advantages of different types of industries indicate that China is undergoing industrial structure upgrading, and the comparative advantages of different types of industries will show dynamic transformation in different directions in the future. Among them, the comparative advantages of garment and textile industry, mechanical and electrical industry and high-tech industry all have different degrees of positive transformation, and will continue to maintain this trend in the future. In comparison, the positive transformation trend of comparative advantage of agriculture and animal husbandry industry is not obvious. 4.CAFTA has a principal positive correlation with the dynamic transformation of China's industrial comparative advantage. CAFTA can help realize the positive transformation of industrial comparative advantage and promote the further upgrading and development of the industry. According to the research results, I convinced that in the future, the country should actively promote the CAFTA business environment optimization and industrial structure optimization and upgrading, and enterprises should actively promote enterprise transformation and upgrading to improve international competitiveness.

Keywords:CAFTA；The industrial development；Comparative Advantage；The dynamic transformation；Markov transfer matrix；OLS regression analysis