统计与数据科学学院知识库

摘  要

近年来，全球生态环境变化剧烈，自然灾害频发，生态环境安全已成为国际生态研究的热点。黄河流域是我国重要的经济、文化建设地区，能源开发区，其生态环境状况事关民生福祉、民族未来。甘肃省位于黄河流域上游地区，地处三大高原、生态屏障建设交汇之处，生态地位极为重要。因此，定量分析甘肃省区域生态环境状况，探究生态安全等级，对推进黄河流域生态高质量发展、高原生态屏障建设乃至全国生态文明战略实施具有重要意义。

本文首先基于集对分析、逼近理想解TOPSIS、欧氏距离、汉明距离以及豪斯多夫距离等方法，对直觉模糊集理论进行改进；其次运用改进的直觉模糊集方法对甘肃省整体生态环境安全状况进行评价；然后将不同生态安全评价方法的评估结果进行对比分析，确定最优改进的生态安全评价方法；最后，依据最优改进的直觉模糊集理论对甘肃省区域生态环境状况进行评估，分析其生态安全变化趋势，结果表明：

（1）结合集对分析、各贴近度测度改进的直觉模糊集理论，对甘肃省整体体生态环境安全状况进行评价。结果表明：甘肃省2012-2019年生态安全由中等等级逐渐改善为普通等级，环境状态不断上升。将各贴近度改进的直觉模糊集与集对分析集对势的生态安全综合评价结果进行对比分析，可以得出基于集对分析、逼近理想解TOPSIS改进的直觉模糊集综合评价理论具备较好的科学性与实际应用性，其精确度与灵敏度相对更高。

（2）基于最优改进的直觉模糊集理论，对甘肃省区域生态状况进行综合评估。结果表明：甘肃省偏北部地区2012-2019年生态环境状况改善明显，酒泉市生态安全稳定于轻微等级，嘉峪关市生态安全等级由极其严重改善到中等；甘肃省中部地区2012-2019年生态环境建设状况良好，金昌市、武威市生态安全等级由中等提升至普通，白银市生态安全由严重改善至中等等级，兰州市生态安全未有变化，张掖市生态状况由普通改善至轻微安全；甘肃省偏南部地区2012-2019年生态状况较好，天水市、甘南州生态安全等级由普通提升至轻微，临夏州生态安全状况由中等改善至轻微安全，平凉市生态安全先下降至严重等级，后逐渐提升至普通安全等级，庆阳市生态安全由严重恶化至极其严重等级，随后逐渐改善并稳定于中等安全等级，定西市、陇南市生态安全逐渐接近于轻微等级。

在此基础上提出甘肃省生态安全建设相关建议：促进甘肃省供给侧结构性改革，调整能源消费结构，提高资源利用效率，促进生态、绿色率较高的产业发展；提升生产生活废物的利用效率与科学研发的支持力度，研发推广环保、清洁新技术，拓展无碳能源的适用领域；完善环保制度体系，加强监督与检测，加大工业企业违规行为的惩处力度，促进生态文明建设。

Abstract

In recent years, the global ecological environment has changed dramatically, natural disasters have occurred frequently, and ecological environment safety has become a hot spot in international ecological research. The Yellow River Basin is an important economic and cultural construction area and an energy development zone in China. Its ecological environment is related to people's well-being and the future of the nation. Gansu Province is located in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, where the three major plateaus and the construction of ecological barriers meet, and its ecological status is extremely important.  Therefore, it is of great significance to quantitatively analyze the regional ecological environment in Gansu Province and explore the ecological security level, which is of great significance to promote the high-quality ecological development of the Yellow River Basin, the construction of the plateau ecological barrier, and even the implementation of the national ecological civilization strategy.

This paper firstly improves the intuitionistic fuzzy set theory based on the method of set pair analysis, approximate ideal solution TOPSIS, Euclidean distance, Hamming distance and Hausdorff distance. Then, the evaluation results of different ecological security evaluation methods are compared and analyzed to determine the optimal and improved ecological security evaluation method. Analyzing the trend of changes in its ecological security, the results show that:

(1) Combining set pair analysis and improved intuitionistic fuzzy set theory for each closeness measure, this paper evaluates the overall ecological environment security in Gansu Province. The results show that from 2012 to 2019, the ecological security of Gansu Province has gradually improved from a medium level to an ordinary level, and the environmental status has continued to rise. Comparing the comprehensive evaluation results of the ecological safety of the improved intuitionistic fuzzy sets with each closeness degree and the set-pair analysis set pairing potential, it can be concluded that the comprehensive evaluation method of the intuitionistic fuzzy sets based on the set-pair analysis and approaching the ideal solution TOPSIS is better. Scientific, effective and applicable, its accuracy and sensitivity are higher.

(2) Based on the optimal improved intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, a comprehensive assessment of the regional ecological status in Gansu Province was carried out. The results show that: the ecological environment in the northern part of Gansu Province has improved significantly from 2012 to 2019, the ecological security of Jiuquan City is stable at a slight level, and the ecological security level of Jiayuguan City has improved from extremely serious to medium; the ecological environment construction in central Gansu Province from 2012 to 2019 In good condition, the ecological security level of Jinchang City and Wuwei City has been improved from medium to normal, Baiyin City's ecological security has been improved from serious to medium level, Lanzhou City's ecological security has not changed, and Zhangye City's ecological security has improved from normal to slightly safe; From 2012 to 2019, the ecological status of the southern region was relatively good. The ecological security level of Tianshui City and Gannan Prefecture increased from normal to mild, and the ecological security status of Linxia Prefecture improved from moderate to slightly safe. The ecological security of Qingyang City deteriorated from a serious level to an extremely serious level, and then gradually improved and stabilized at a moderate level of security. The ecological security of Dingxi City and Longnan City gradually approached a mild level.

On this basis, relevant suggestions on the construction of ecological security in Gansu Province are put forward: promote the supply-side structural reform in Gansu Province, adjust the energy consumption structure, improve the efficiency of resource utilization, and promote the development of industries with high ecological and green rates; improve the utilization efficiency of production and domestic waste. With the support of scientific research and development, research and development and promotion of environmental protection and clean new technologies, expand the application field of carbon-free energy; improve the environmental protection system, strengthen supervision and testing, increase the punishment of industrial enterprises for violations, and promote the construction of ecological civilization.