金融学院知识库

  扩大金融高水平开放是畅通国内国际双循环新发展格局的关键环节，也是促进金融供给侧结构性改革、经济金融高质量发展的必然要求。随着金融自由化进程的加快，跨境资本异常流动加剧我国金融领域扩大开放风险，影响我国货币政策调控效果。特别是在后疫情时代，各发达国家相继推出的负利率政策极大挤压我国货币政策空间，跨境资本异常流动驱动因素日趋复杂化，加大我国经济金融高质量发展的不确定性。因此，研究跨境资本异常流动对我国货币政策调控效果的影响，将有利于防控跨境资本异常流动风险，提高货币政策调控效果，有利于推动金融领域高水平对外开放，健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架，高效保障我国金融安全。

  本文基于2004年第3季度至2021年第1季度的数据，运用OLS和分位数回归方法研究了跨境资本异常流动对我国货币政策调控效果的影响，并在此基础上检验利率、汇率、资产价格和信贷传导机制的传导效应。研究结果表明：首先，激增、中断、外逃和撤回异常对经济增长、物价的影响具有异质性。一是激增对经济增长的促进作用呈边际递减，对物价具有显著推高作用。二是中断在经济高速增长时发生对经济增长的冲击较大，但对物价未造成严重冲击，主要是期间我国加强资本流动管理、灵活的货币政策操作确保物价水平的基本稳定。三是外逃对经济增长抑制作用不明显，甚至是促进作用，主要受“迂回”式资本外逃和强化资本流动管理等影响；物价水平未受到显著冲击，主要是期间我国央行加强市场流动性管理和宏观审慎监管。四是撤回对经济增长有显著促进作用；物价水平未受到显著冲击，主要是我国央行在此时期灵活加强了市场流动性管理。其次，跨境资本异常流动下货币政策传导机制对经济增长和物价稳定的传导效应具有异质性。最后，本文提出健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架、加强跨境资本异常流动异常监测和管控、有序推进资本开放、加强国际金融监管合作、深化金融体制机制改革等政策启示。

       Expanding the high-level financial opening is a key link in smoothing the new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation, and it is also an inevitable requirement to promote the structural reform of the financial supply side and the high-quality economic and financial development. With the acceleration of the process of financial liberalization, the abnormal cross-border capital flow aggravates the risk of expanding the opening-up of my country's financial sector and affects the effect of my country's monetary policy control. Especially in the post-epidemic era, the negative interest rate policies successively launched by various developed countries have greatly squeezed my country's monetary policy space, and the driving factors of abnormal cross-border capital flows have become increasingly complex, increasing the uncertainty of my country's high-quality economic and financial development. Therefore, studying the impact of abnormal cross-border capital flows on the effect of my country's monetary policy regulation will help prevent and control the risk of abnormal cross-border capital flows, improve the effect of monetary policy regulation, promote high-level opening of the financial sector, and improve monetary policy and macroeconomic policies. The two-pillar regulatory framework of prudential policies effectively safeguards my country's financial security.

        Based on the data from the third quarter of 2004 to the first quarter of 2021, this paper uses the OLS and quantile regression methods to study the impact of abnormal cross-border capital flows on the effect of my country's monetary policy regulation, and on this basis, tests the interest rate, exchange rate, Transmission effects of asset prices and credit transmission mechanisms. The results show that: First, the effects of surge, disruption, flight and withdrawal anomalies on economic growth and prices are heterogeneous. First, the boosting effect of the surge on economic growth is marginally diminishing, and it has a significant push-up effect on prices. Second, the interruption occurred when the economy was growing at a high speed, which had a greater impact on economic growth, but did not cause a serious impact on prices. The main reason was that my country strengthened capital flow management and flexible monetary policy operations to ensure the basic stability of the price level during the period. Third, the effect of flight on economic growth was not obvious, or even promoted. It was mainly affected by "circumferential" capital flight and strengthened capital flow management. The price level was not significantly impacted, mainly because my country's central bank strengthened market liquidity management and Macroprudential regulation. Fourth, the withdrawal has significantly promoted economic growth; the price level has not been significantly impacted, mainly because my country's central bank has flexibly strengthened market liquidity management during this period. Secondly, the transmission effect of monetary policy transmission mechanism on economic growth and price stability under abnormal cross-border capital flow is heterogeneous. Finally, this paper proposes policy implications such as improving the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy, strengthening the monitoring and control of abnormal cross-border capital flows, promoting capital opening in an orderly manner, strengthening international financial supervision cooperation, and deepening financial system and mechanism reform.