国际经济与贸易学院知识库

    在经济全球化快速推进的过程中，世界经济发展的一个重要特点便是国际直接投资的快速增长，这作为新经济的关键要素和基本要求已经对区域经济相互促进与融合、优化贸易结构、改善贸易条件等做出了较大的贡献。对外直接投资是我国改革开放的重要内容，已成为我国拓展外资经济、融入国际化发展的重要方式。近年来国际经济与贸易环境不断恶化，逆全球化、贸易保护主义抬头，世界贸易不确定性趋势上升，对中国出口企业和跨国公司的经营活动产生了深刻影响。

    在此背景下，文章以“一带一路”沿线国家为例，探讨了东道国贸易不确定性对中国对外直接投资的影响。文章首先对中国对外直接投资现状进行了分析；其次，基于Melitz模型从理论层面探讨了贸易不确定性与对外直接投资之间的关系并将理论分析与现实经验相结合；接着分析了中国对“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI的空间分布特征；最后进行中介效应检验与调节效应检验以探讨东道国贸易不确定性是通过何种途径影响中国对外直接投资，以及贸易不确定性对中国OFDI的影响程度主要受到哪些因素影响。得出以下结论：第一，中国对“一带一路”沿线各国的对外直接投资空间上呈现显著正相关，即经济上具有相似属性的国家聚集在一起，空间差异性较小；第二，东道国贸易不确定性的增加会促进中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的对外直接投资，且贸易不确定性的空间溢出效应显著；第三，东道国贸易不确定性对中国OFDI的影响主要是通过出口规模实现；东道国贸易条件在不同水平时，贸易不确定性对中国对外直接投资的影响具有显著性差异。最后，依据结论提出如下建议：第一，企业要把握中国OFDI的空间分布特征，结合实际情况开展对外投资活动，助力中国由投资大国向投资强国迈进；第二，对于东道国的出口部门来说，应根据本国国情以及资源禀赋努力改善本国贸易条件；第三，要加快供给侧结构性改革，提高企业生产率，提升经济发展的韧性；第四，要统筹区域协调性发展，稳步提高“一带一路”沿线国家贸易与投资耦合程度，促进贸易与投资的协调性发展。

    In the process of rapid economic globalization, an important feature of world economic development is the rapid growth of international direct investment. As a key element and basic requirement of the New Economy, it has made great contribution to the mutual promotion and integration of regional economy, optimization of trade structure and improvement of terms of trade.Outward foreign direct investment is an important part of our country's reform and opening up, and it has become an important way for our country to expand the foreign-invested economy and integrate into the international development. In recent years, the international economic and trade environment has been deteriorating. Anti-globalization and trade protectionism have risen, and the uncertainty of world trade has risen, which has had a profound impact on the business activities of Chinese export companies and multinational companies.

    In this context, this article takes countries along the “Belt and Road” as an example to explore the impact of host country trade uncertainty on China’s outward foreign direct investment.The article firstly analyzes the status quo of China’s OFDI; secondly, it explores the logical relationship between trade uncertainty and OFDI from a theoretical level based on Melitz model, and combines theoretical analysis with practical experience; then it analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of China’s OFDI toward countries along the“Belt and Road”; finally, the mediating effect test and the moderating effect test are conducted to explore how the host countrys’ trade uncertainty affect China’s OFDI and the degree of the impact of trade uncertainty on China’s OFDI is mainly affected by what factors.The following conclusions are drawn: First, China's OFDI in the countries along the "Belt and Road" shows a significant positive spatial correlation, that is, countries with similar economic attributes are clustered together, and the spatial differences are small; second, the increase of trade uncertainty in the host country will promote China’s OFDI in countries along the "Belt and Road", and the spatial spillover effect of trade uncertainty is significant; third, the rise of the host country’s trade uncertainty will promote China’s OFDI toward the countries along “Belt and Road”,and vice versa; fourth, the impact of the host country’s trade uncertainty on China’s OFDI is mainly realized through the scale of exports; when the host country’s terms of trade are at different levels, the impact of trade uncertainty on China’s OFDI are significantly different.Finally,based on the research conclusions, the following recommendations are made: First, enterprises should grasp the spatial distribution characteristics of China's OFDI, carry out OFDI activities in light of the actual situation to help China move from a big investment country to a strong investment country.;second, for the export sector of the host country, efforts should be made to improve its own terms of trade in accordance with its national conditions and resource endowments; third, it is necessary to speed up supply-side structural reform, increase enterprise productivity to enhance the resilience of economic development; fourth, it is also necessary to coordinate regional development, steadily improve the coupling degree of trade and investment of countries along the "Belt and Road" to promote the coordinated and high-quality development of trade and investment.