统计与数据科学学院知识库

黄河流域是我国重要的生态屏障和经济地带，在国家经济社会发展和生态安全等方面发挥着重要作用。但是由于长期以来受自然环境条件及高强度开发的影响，流域的生态环境较脆弱，生态安全等级较低，经济发展与资源环境矛盾问题突出。2019年黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展作为国家重大战略的提出为流域沿线省域的发展提供了新方向、新机遇。因此本研究以黄河流域高质量发展为背景，综合考虑了流域各区社会经济、自然资源、生态环境等实际情况，首先基于“驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应”（DPSIR）理论框架模型构建黄河流域生态安全评价指标体系，其次运用TOPSIS模糊物元法测度黄河流域沿线各省域2010-2019年生态安全状况及其演变趋势；进一步引入耦合度和耦合协调模型理论，对黄河流域整体内部系统及两两子系统间生态安全水平的耦合协调性分别从时间和空间两个维度进行系统评价；最后利用障碍度函数，用障碍指数判定影响黄河流域各省区生态安全水平提升的主要障碍因素，系统科学地揭示了黄河流域生态安全的现状及其变化成因所在。

研究结果表明：（1）2010-2019年黄河流域各省区生态环境日益改善。在时间序列上，黄河流域总体生态安全水平经历了“小幅上升—快速上升—稳定上升”的三个过程；在空间格局上，受自然、区域、历史等因素影响，沿黄河流域各省生态安全水平在空间上呈现从“中游领先”到“下游超越”的演进格局。（2）2010-2019年黄河流域生态安全整体耦合协调水平呈上升态势，耦合协调性经历了“勉强协调—初级协调—中级协调”的过渡，流域上、中、下游不同区域耦合协调能力空间差异明显；2010-2019年两两子系统间的耦合协调性均向健康有序方向协调发展，但呈现明显的区域异质性，生态安全系统的内部协同机制需要改进。（3）通过障碍度函数模型探寻黄河流域不同省区生态安全水平差异成因，发现阻碍流域各省区生态安全水平提高的因素不仅有共性因素，也有其区域特殊因素。人均水资源量是流域沿线各省区生态安全水平提升的共同障碍因素。

The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier and economic zone in China, it plays a vital role in national economic and social development and ecological security. However, due to the long-term impact of natural environmental conditions and high-intensity development, the ecological environment of the basin is more fragile, the ecological security level is lower, and the conflict between economic development and resources and environment is still prominent.The proposed ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin in 2019 as a major national strategy provides great opportunities for the development of the provinces along the basin.Therefore, this study takes the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin as the background, and takes into account the actual situation of socio-economic, natural resources and ecological environment in each region of the basin, firstly, based on the "Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response "(DPSIR) theoretical framework model to construct the ecological security evaluation index system of the Yellow River Basin, followed by the TOPSIS fuzzy element method to measure the ecological security status and its evolution trend of each province along the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019; Furtherly, introducing the theory of coupling degree and coupling coordination model to conduct a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of the temporal and spatial differences in coupling and coordination between the overall internal system of the Yellow River Basin and the ecological security level of the two subsystems;Finally, using the obstacle degree function to quantitatively study the main obstacle factors that affect the improvement of the ecological security level of the Yellow River Basin, systematically and comprehensively reveal the current status and causes of the ecological security of the Yellow River Basin.

The results of the study show that (1) the ecological environment of the Yellow River Basin provinces and regions has been improving from 2010 to 2019. In terms of time series, the overall ecological safety level of the Yellow River basin has experienced three processes: "small increase - rapid increase - stable increase"; in terms of spatial pattern, due to natural, regional and historical factors, the ecological safety level of the provinces along the Yellow River basin has evolved from "leading in the middle reaches" to "surpassing in the lower reaches". In terms of spatial pattern, due to natural, regional and historical factors, the ecological safety level of provinces along the Yellow River Basin has evolved from "leading in the middle reaches" to "surpassing in the lower reaches".(2) The overall coupling and coordination level of ecological security in the Yellow River basin from 2010 to 2019 is on the rise, and the coupling and coordination has undergone the transition of "barely coordinated - primary coordination - intermediate coordination", with obvious spatial differences in the coupling and coordination ability of different regions in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the basin; the coupling and coordination between the two subsystems from 2010 to 2019 are coordinated in a healthy and orderly direction, but show obvious regional heterogeneity, and the internal synergistic mechanism of the ecological security system needs to be improved.(3) By exploring the causes of differences in ecological security levels among different provinces in the Yellow River basin through a barrier function model, we found that there are not only common factors that impede the improvement of ecological security levels in each province in the basin, but also regional heterogeneity in the barriers to ecological security in different provinces. Water resources per capita is a common obstacle to the improvement of ecological security in all provinces and regions along the basin.