经济学院知识库

随着中国进入高质量发展阶段，环境保护和经济发展具有同等重要的地位。然而，目前中国人口分布不均衡、人口红利逐渐消失、老龄化日趋严重等人口问题和产业不断趋向集聚等经济发展问题都严重影响着中国碳排放强度，进而影响着生态环境状况。碳排放问题不仅是中国实现高质量发展面临的问题,也是世界各国关注的话题。因此，深入分析人口密度、产业集聚与碳排放强度三者之间的关系，对各地区实现人口、经济和环境协调发展具有重要意义。

首先，采用密度分析各省（市、区、直辖市）人口密度分布现状和产业集聚水平，并分析各省域的碳排放强度；然后运用探索性空间数据分析方法（ESDA）对人口密度、产业集聚与碳排放强度进行空间相关性分析。

其次，构建修正的IPAT等式，从理论层面分析人口密度、产业集聚和碳排放三者之间的关系，进一步提出研究假设，为之后实证分析奠定基础。

最后，构建空间计量模型，分析各省域人口密度变动和产业集聚变动对碳排放影响的空间效应；因产业集聚是人口密度对碳排放产生影响的中介因素，故对人口密度、产业集聚与碳排放强度进行中介效应分析与空间异质性分析。

研究表明：（1）中国各省域的碳排放强度存在显著的空间相关性，表现出稳定的空间块状集群特征，且“高—高”集聚均出现在北部省份，“低—低”集聚均出现在南部省份。（2）劳动力人口密度对碳排放强度的正向效应显著，但空间溢出效应不显著，而老年人口密度对碳排放强度的负向效应和空间溢出效应均较为显著。（3）产业集聚对碳排放强度的负向效应和空间溢出效应均较为显著。（4）人口密度对碳排放的降低作用受产业集聚这一中介效应影响较为显著，但对于不同经济带的影响具有差异性。

在实现碳达峰、碳中和的目标下，基于研究结论，提出相应建议：（1）加强地区间碳减排的协同治理能力，共同构建治理平台和政策框架，从全盘考虑，从整体视野出发，摒弃省域碳排放的“逐底竞争”模式，打破区域管理界限。（2）合理引导人口集聚，充分发挥老年人口的减排作用。（3）提高产业集聚水平，发挥集聚的减排作用。（4）在总体规划下，制定适应地方发展路径的减排政策，因地制宜、有的放矢。

As China enters a stage of high-quality development, environmental protection and economic development are equally important. However, the current imbalance of China's population distribution, the gradual disappearance of demographic dividend, the increasingly serious aging of population and economic development issues such as the continuous trend of industrial agglomeration have a serious impact on China's carbon emission intensity, and thus affect the ecological environment. Carbon emission is not only an issue for China to achieve high-quality development, but also a topic of concern for other countries around the world. Therefore, in-depth analysis of the relationship among population density, industrial agglomeration and carbon emission intensity is of great significance to realize coordinated development of population, economy and environment in various regions.

Firstly, the population density distribution and industrial agglomeration level of each province (city, district, municipality directly under the Central Government) are analyzed by density analysis, and the carbon emission intensity of each province is analyzed. Then exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) was used to analyze the spatial correlation between population density, industrial agglomeration and carbon emission intensity.

Secondly, a modified IPAT equation is constructed to analyze the relationship among population density, industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions from a theoretical level, and further research hypotheses are proposed to lay a foundation for subsequent empirical analysis.

Finally, a spatial econometric model was established to analyze the spatial effects of population density and industrial agglomeration on carbon emissions. Since industrial agglomeration is the mediating factor influencing population density on carbon emissions, the mediating effect and spatial heterogeneity of population density, industrial agglomeration and carbon emission intensity are analyzed.

The main conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) There is a significant spatial correlation between carbon emission intensity at provincial level in China, showing a stable spatial block cluster characteristics, and "high-high" agglomeration occurs in the northern provinces, and "low-low" agglomeration occurs in the southern provinces. (2) The labor population density has a significant positive effect on carbon emission intensity, but the spatial spillover effect is not significant, while the elderly population density has a significant negative effect and spatial spillover effect on carbon emission intensity. (3) Industrial agglomeration has significant negative effect and spatial spillover effect on carbon emission intensity. (4) The reduction effect of population density on carbon emissions is significantly affected by the intermediary effect of industrial agglomeration, but the impact on different economic belts is different.

In carbon under the aim of the peak, carbon neutral, based on the research conclusion, put forward the corresponding Suggestions: (1) to strengthen regional carbon reduction ability of collaborative governance, building common management platform and policy framework, from the overall consideration, starting from the overall view, abandon the provincial carbon emissions "the bottom" competition mode, break the regional management. (2) Reasonably guide population agglomeration and give full play to the emission reduction role of the elderly population. (3) Improve the level of industrial agglomeration and play the role of agglomeration in emission reduction. (4) Formulate emission reduction policies tailored to local development paths under the overall plan, with specific targets in mind.