经济学院知识库

2020年是我国脱贫攻坚战取得胜利的历史性时期，现行贫困标准下我国长期存在的绝对贫困问题得到了解决。然而，贫困是一种动态的现象，绝对贫困的消除并不意味着所有致贫因素得以永久消除，部分农村人口仍在贫困收入标准线上徘徊，脱贫人口及边缘贫困人口仍有极大的返贫可能性。因此，面对“后脱贫攻坚”到来，巩固脱贫成果，提升脱贫成效的稳定性将成为当前反贫困治理的重要任务。

鉴于此，本文在总结和归纳已有研究成果和理论的基础上，利用CFPS 2012—2018年的追踪数据，将农户脱贫稳定性作为研究对象，依据最新国际贫困线标准，从贫困的内部结构“贫困率”、“贫困强度”以及“贫困深度”对我国农户脱贫稳定性进行评价分析。通过建立二元logistic面板回归模型、ols面板回归模型等方法对农户脱贫稳定性影响因素进行了检验分析。在农户脱贫稳定性理论分析和实证分析的基础上，最终提出促进农户稳定脱贫的对策。得到主要研究结论为：（1）我国仍存在大量相对贫困人口，但随着年份增加我国相对贫困率、贫困深度、贫困强度在不断下降，农户整体脱贫稳定性较好。部分地区相对贫困率、贫困深度、贫困强度变化趋势呈现不规律特点，农户脱贫水平仍存在不稳定性。

（2）各省农户相对贫困内部结构不同，相对贫困率、相对贫困人口的脱贫程度及扶贫难度存在显著差距，农户脱贫稳定性存在区域性差异。（3）家庭人口情况、家庭健康情况、家庭基础设施、家庭外出务工情况、家庭支出情况、社会保障以及户主对未来信心程度等是影响农户稳定脱贫的重要因素，但是这些因素对农户稳定脱贫的影响方向不同。其中，家庭人口规模、家庭老龄人数占比、家庭医疗及教育支出情况是导致农户脱贫不稳定的关键因素；而健康水平、基础设施情况、外出务工、政府补助、社会捐助以及农户对未来信心的提升有助于农户提升脱贫致富能力，是促进农户稳定脱贫的重要因素。根据以上结论提出建议：面对“后脱贫攻坚”时代的到来，要将脱贫攻坚战略与各项乡村政策紧密结合，将提升脱贫能力与完善民生保障、实现农户增收与促进地区发展相结合，在使农户及地区拥有可持续发展动力的同时，提升我国农户脱贫稳定性。

The year 2020 marks a historic victory in China's battle against poverty. The long-standing problem of absolute poverty in China under the current poverty standard has been resolved, with all poor rural residents lifted out of poverty and all poor counties removed from poverty. However, poverty is a dynamic phenomenon, and the elimination of absolute poverty does not mean that all factors causing poverty will be eliminated permanently. Some rural population is still hovering on the poverty income standard, and there is still a great possibility for those who have been lifted out of poverty and those who are marginalized to return to poverty. Therefore, in the face of the advent of the post-poverty alleviation era, consolidating the results of poverty alleviation and improving the stability of the results will become an important task of the current anti-poverty governance.

In view of this, on the basis of summarizing and summarizing existing research results and theories, this paper uses CFPS tracking data from 2012 to 2018 to take the stability of poverty alleviation of farmers as the research object, and according to the latest international poverty line standards, From the poverty internal structure "poverty rate", "poverty intensity" and "poverty depth" to evaluate the stability of poverty alleviation of farmers in China; Through the establishment of binary logistic panel regression model, OLS panel regression model and other methods to test and analyze the factors affecting the stability of poverty alleviation of farmers. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the stability of poverty alleviation of farmers, finally put forward the countermeasures to promote the stability of poverty alleviation of farmers. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) There are still a large number of relative poor people in China, but with the increase of years, the relative poverty rate, the depth and intensity of poverty in China continue to decline, and the overall stability of poverty alleviation of farmers is good. The relative poverty rate, depth and intensity of poverty in some regions show irregular trends, and the level of poverty alleviation of rural households is still unstable. (2) There are significant differences in relative poverty rate, poverty alleviation degree and difficulty of relative poor population, and regional differences in the stability of poverty alleviation among rural households. (3) Family population, family health, family infrastructure, family out-migrating for work, family expenditure, social security and household head's confidence in the future are important factors that affect the stable poverty alleviation of rural households, but these factors affect the stable poverty alleviation of rural households in different directions. Among them, the family size, the proportion of the elderly in the family, and the expenditure of medical care and education are the key factors leading to the instability of poverty alleviation. The health level, infrastructure, migrant workers, government subsidies, social donations and the improvement of farmers' confidence in the future can help farmers enhance their ability to get rid of poverty and become rich, which is an important factor to promote the stable poverty alleviation of farmers. According to the above conclusions are proposed: in the face of the arrival of the "out of poverty after engines", to escape a crucial strategic and closely with all rural policies, improving the capacity of poverty and improve people's livelihood security, realize the farmers' income and promote the combination of regional development, to make the farmers and district has the power of sustainable development at the same time, promote stability of farmers out of poverty in our country.