金融学院知识库

        2008年国际金融危机爆发以来，全球范围内的宽松基调和国内连续数年稳中偏宽的货币政策刺激了投资规模扩张，也逐步推高了宏观杠杆率。宏观杠杆率上升在影响经济增长的同时，也可能导致信用的过度膨胀，致使金融“脱实向虚”，并对金融的整体稳定性产生负面影响。因此准确把握宏观杠杆率、经济增长与金融稳定的内在关联不仅可以对经济增长进行预测和把控，而且能为去杠杆和有效防范金融风险提供思路。为此，调控宏观杠杆率至适当水平是防风险与稳增长的重要手段。那么，在当前稳增长和防风险的背景下，我国总的宏观杠杆率该如何调控，这是我国目前面临的十分现实的问题。

   本文基于我国30个省市自治区2000-2020年的面板数据，对宏观杠杆率、经济增长、金融稳定之间的关系开展研究。首先，本文进行理论分析，对宏观杠杆率、金融稳定及其构成要素等方面的概念进行界定，并且整理和归纳了宏观杠杆率、经济增长与金融稳定等方面的理论，重点分析了宏观杠杆率、经济增长与金融稳定三者之间的影响机理。其次，分析了我国宏观杠杆率、各部门杠杆率以及经济增长的发展现状，为实证研究做准备。然后，本文进行实证分析，从宏观经济、金融发展、金融质量、金融盈利、房地产经济发展和市场信心程度等6个层面构造了金融稳定性指数，并运用动态面板数据模型实证分析宏观杠杆率、经济增长与金融稳定之间的关系。研究发现：宏观杠杆率与金融稳定之间呈现出显著的倒“U”型关系，当宏观杠杆率水平的增加，对金融稳定会先产生正面影响，随后又会产生负面影响，存在一个“拐点”。进一步研究发现：当经济增长率较低时，宏观杠杆率的上升会加剧金融的不稳定性，当经济增长率较高时，宏观杠杆率的上升会降低金融的不稳定性。最后，本文综合前文的理论分析和实证研究结果，提出完善宏观杠杆率预警机制、科学动态调整、设立结构性去杠杆政策、完善金融风险监测机制等对策建议。

  Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the global loose tone and the domestic stable and relatively wide monetary policy for several consecutive years have stimulated the expansion of investment scale and gradually pushed up the macro leverage ratio. While affecting economic growth, the rise of macro leverage ratio may also lead to excessive credit expansion, leading to financial "de-real to virtual", and negatively affecting the overall stability of finance. Therefore, an accurate grasp of the internal relationship between macro leverage ratio, economic growth and financial stability can not only predict and control economic growth, but also provide ideas for deleveraging and effective prevention of financial risks. Therefore, adjusting macro leverage ratio to an appropriate level is an important means to prevent risks and stabilize growth. Therefore, in the context of stable growth and risk prevention, how to regulate China's overall macro leverage ratio is a very realistic problem facing China at present.

  Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2000 to 2020, this paper studies the relationship among macro leverage ratio, economic growth and financial stability. First of all, in this paper, through theoretical analysis, the macro leverage, financial stability and to define the concept of the constituent elements and so on, and sorted out and sums up the macro leverage, the theory of economic growth and financial stability, etc, analyzed macro leverage, the influence mechanism between economic growth and financial stability. Secondly, it analyzes the development status of China's macro leverage ratio, the leverage ratio of various sectors and economic growth, to prepare for empirical research. Then, this paper carries on the empirical analysis, constructs the financial stability index from the macro economy, the financial development, the financial quality, the financial profit, the real estate economic development and the market confidence degree, and uses the dynamic panel data model to empirically analyze the relationship between the macro leverage ratio, economic growth and financial stability. The research finds that there is a significant inverted u-shaped relationship between macro leverage ratio and financial stability. When the level of macro leverage increases, it will have a positive impact on financial stability first, and then a negative impact, and there is an "inflection point". Further research shows that: when the economic growth rate is low, the increase of macro leverage ratio will aggravate financial instability, when the economic growth rate is high, the increase of macro leverage ratio will reduce financial instability. Finally, based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical research results, this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions to improve the early warning mechanism of macro leverage ratio, scientific dynamic adjustment, the establishment of structural deleveraging policy, and the improvement of financial risk monitoring mechanism.