统计与数据科学学院知识库

十九届六中全会指出，当前我国经济发展的要素条件、组合方式以及配置效率等发生诸多变化，所要面对的硬约束性条件明显增多，环境约束接近上限，高质量发展和科技创新成为诸多约束条件下确保经济增长实现“最优解”的必要路径。如何保证科技创新能力长期稳定促进经济增长，其核心关键之处就是人力资本的投资与积累。内生经济增长理论表明，人力资本的长期积累是实现经济增长的根本原因。近年来，随着教育水平提高以及户籍改革制度的不断更新，各地区为吸引人才、鼓励创新，也相继出台了一些“抢人”政策，这为人才引进提供了良好的发展平台。为此本文将人力资本流动因素纳入到内生经济增长模型中，研究人力资本流动驱动经济增长的路径选择问题，并且结合中国的实际情况，以户籍改革制度为背景，运用空间计量模型加以实证检验。

本文首先梳理了内生经济增长理论与人力资本理论研究现状，以及人力资本与人力资本流动的测度方法，将人力资本流动要素纳入到Uzawa-Lucas两部门内生增长模型中，建立了Uzawa-Lucas改进模型，并将其作为本文的理论基础展开分析，从理论上证明了人力资本流动对经济增长驱动作用及其作用路径。其次，通过明瑟方程测算教育回报率进而得到对各区域的人力资本存量的测度。第三，运用劳瑞引力模型对人力资本流动量进行测算。最后，基于Uzawa-Lucas改进模型，构建我国人力资本与经济增长关系研究的空间计量模型，验证我国2005-2019年人力资本流动条件下人力资本与经济增长的关系。

实证研究结果表明人力资本存量促进了我国经济增长，人力资本流动为我国经济增长带来积极影响。最后根据前述分析结论，为提升区域人力资本累积与利用效率促进经济长期稳定增长提出了相关的对策建议。

The sixth plenary session of the 19 points out that the elements of the current our country economy development condition, combination and allocative efficiency has many changes, facing the hard constraint of obvious increase, environmental constraints, close to the limit, high quality development and innovation of science and technology become a constraint to ensure economic growth under the condition of the necessary path "optimal solution". The investment and accumulation of human capital is the key to ensure the long-term stability of scientific and technological innovation ability to promote economic growth. Endogenous economic growth theory shows that the long-term accumulation of human capital is the fundamental cause of economic growth. In this paper, the factors of human capital flow are incorporated into the endogenous economic growth model, and the choice of the path of human capital flow driving economic growth is studied. Combined with the actual situation of China, the household registration reform system is taken as the background, and the spatial econometric model is used to empirically test.

This paper firstly reviews the research status of endogenous economic growth theory and human capital theory, as well as the measurement method of human capital and human capital flow. The factors of human capital flow are incorporated into the endogenous growth model of the two sectors of Uzawa-Lucas, and the improved Uzawa-Lucas model is established and analyzed as the theoretical basis of this paper. It proves the driving effect of human capital flow on economic growth and its action path theoretically. Secondly, we can measure the stock of human capital in each region by measuring the rate of return of education through Minser equation. Third, use Lowry gravity model to measure the flow of human capital. Finally, based on the Improved Uzawa-Lucas model, a spatial econometric model is constructed to verify the relationship between human capital and economic growth in China during 2005-2019 under the condition of human capital flow.

The empirical results show that the stock of human capital promotes China's economic growth and the flow of human capital has a positive impact on China's economic growth. Finally, according to the above analysis conclusions, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve regional human capital accumulation and utilization efficiency and promote long-term stable economic growth.