统计与数据科学学院知识库

人工智能作为第四次科技革命的核心驱动力，在应用和发展过程中必然带来经济的发展和价值的创造，同时也会引起劳动力市场的深刻变革，不同于传统的技术进步，人工智能对就业技能结构的影响将更彻底，更广泛，其对就业技能结构的影响需要从理论到实证的深入研究。

基于此，本文从人工智能影响就业技能结构的影响路径出发，梳理相关文献，构建人工智能影响就业技能结构的理论框架，接着运用时序加权平均算子计算我国各省份科技发展指数并进行地区划分，再引入实证数据定量分析人工智能对就业技能结构影响的地区差异性，重点突出人工智能对我国就业技能机构影响效应的结构差异和地区差异，最后从实现我国充分就业和数字经济高质量发展的角度提出合理有效的建议。

文章首先梳理人工智能影响就业技能结构的理论机制，发现人工智能对就业既有替代效应，又有创造效应，总效应取决于二者的动态变化；对就业技能结构的影响呈现阶段式特征，主要从两个阶段展开，在人工智能发展的初级阶段，就业技能结构以升级为特征，在人工智能发展的成熟阶段，就业技能结构以两极分化为特征；此外，人工智能发展水平不同，对就业技能结构的影响不同，人工智能发展高水平地区，就业创造效应大于替代效应，实现就业技能结构的转型比较容易，人工智能发展低水平地区，就业替代效应大于创造效应，实现就业技能结构的转型比较困难。

接着通过引入我国30个省份2005-2019年的数据进行实证检验，采用时序加权平均算子对30个省份科技发展水平进行动态评价，根据科技发展水平评价结果将30个省份分为高等、中等、低等三个地区，以引入虚拟变量构建面板模型分析人工智能对我国不同地区就业技能结构的影响差异。研究结果表明：全国范围内，人工智能对就业技能结构的影响特征还不太明显，有助于促进高等技能劳动力就业，但不利于低等技能劳动力就业；从不同区域来看，对科技发展高水平地区表现为就业技能结构升级特征，但影响不明显，对科技发展中、低水平地区的低等技能劳动力就业具有积极的促进作用，但不利于科技发展中水平地区高等技能劳动力和科技发展低水平地区中等技能劳动力就业。

最后，从推进人工智能发展与保障充分就业的角度，依据相关政策，对如何协调人工智能发展与充分就业、优化就业技能结构、加强技能劳动力供需准确匹配提出针对性建议。

As the core driving force of the fourth scientific and technological revolution, artificial intelligence will inevitably bring economic development and value creation in the process of application and development. It will also cause profound changes in the labor market. Unlike traditional technological progress, the impact of artificial intelligence on employment skill structure will be more thorough and extensive. Its impact on employment skill structure needs in-depth research from theory to demonstration.

Based on this, this paper starts from the impact path of AI on employment skill structure, combs the relevant literature, constructs the theoretical framework of AI on employment skill structure, then uses the time-series weighted average operator to calculate the science and technology development index of various provinces in China and divide them into regions, and then introduces empirical data to quantitatively analyze the regional differences of the impact of AI on employment skill structure, Focus on the structural and regional differences of the impact of artificial intelligence on China's employment skill institutions, and finally put forward reasonable and effective suggestions from the perspective of realizing China's full employment and high-quality development of digital economy.

Firstly, this paper combs the theoretical mechanism of AI affecting employment skill structure, and finds that AI has both substitution effect and creation effect on employment, and the total effect depends on the dynamic changes of them; The impact on the structure of employment skills is characterized by stages, mainly from two stages. In the primary stage of the development of AI, the structure of employment skills is characterized by upgrading, and in the mature stage of the development of AI, the structure of employment skills is characterized by polarization; In addition, different levels of AI development have different effects on the employment skill structure. In areas with high-level AI development, the employment creation effect is greater than the substitution effect, so it is easier to realize the transformation of employment skill structure. In areas with low-level AI development, the employment substitution effect should be greater than the creation effect, so it is more difficult to realize the transformation of employment skill structure.

Then, by introducing the data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019 for empirical test, the time series weighted average operator is used to dynamically evaluate the scientific and technological development level of 30 provinces. According to the evaluation results of scientific and technological development level, 30 provinces are divided into three regions: high, medium and low. The panel model is constructed by introducing dummy variables to analyze the impact of artificial intelligence on the employment skill structure in different regions of China. The results show that the influence of artificial intelligence on employment skill structure is not obvious nationwide, which helps to promote the employment of high skilled labor, but is not conducive to the employment of low skilled labor; From different regions, the high-level areas of scientific and technological development are characterized by the upgrading of employment skill structure, but the impact is not obvious. It has a positive role in promoting the employment of low skilled labor in medium and low-level areas of scientific and technological development, but it is not conducive to the employment of high skilled labor in medium and low-level areas of scientific and Technological Development and medium skilled labor in low-level areas of scientific and technological development.

Finally, from the perspective of promoting the development of artificial intelligence and ensuring full employment, according to relevant policies, this paper puts forward targeted suggestions on how to coordinate the development of artificial intelligence and full employment, optimize the employment skill structure, and strengthen the accurate matching between the supply and demand of skilled labor force.