统计与数据科学学院知识库

  农，天下之大本。农业是一个国家和地区繁荣的重要基础之一，也在国民经济的发展中起到了至关重要的作用，同时现代化发展理念和道路是农业发展中的重要组成部分。自新中国成立以来，农业现代化得到了党中央和各级政府高度重视。目前，随着我国迈入新的发展阶段以及乡村振兴战略的提出，农业现代化发展成为了国家现代化进程的重要组成部分。新时代农业现代化的理论内涵和发展目标发生了巨大的变化，因此对农业现代化的新内涵进行分析阐释并据此构建新的评价指标体系，对我国现代化的发展意义重大。

  在此背景下，本文首先对农业现代化的发展背景、发展作用以及发展意义进行阐述，梳理了国内外农业现代化的发展理念内涵和评价标准，同时阐述了新中国成立以来我国的农业现代化发展的各个历程及内涵。然后，对乡村振兴和新时代农业现代化的理论内涵进行了阐释分析，并据此构建由农业生产体系、农业经营体系、农业产业体系三个方面组成的新时代农业现代化发展的评价指标体系。最后，以甘肃省为研究对象，采用综合评价模型评价2014-2020年甘肃省及其各地市州农业现代化的发展状况，在此基础上对“十四五”期间甘肃省农业现代化各维度发展水平进行灰色预测，并运用障碍度模型分析影响甘肃省农业现代化发展的主要因素。

  通过研究得出以下结论：（1）甘肃省农业现代化发展水平呈现螺旋式缓慢上升的发展趋势。各维度发展差异较大，在发展速度方面，农业经营体系现代化发展最快，农业生产体系发展次之，农业产业体系发展缓慢甚至停滞。（2）新型农业经营主体的数量增速快，但仍需调整和完善内部结构和发展模式。（3）制约甘肃省农业现代化发展的主要因素是粮食和其他农产品保障不足以及产业融合程度较低。（4）甘肃省内部农业现代化发展水平差异明显，河西地区发展水平普遍较河东地区高。同时，本文从保障粮食等农产品稳定生产、规范新型经营主体内部运营、因地制宜提高农业现代化程度、加快农业产业融合发展和产业链延伸等四个方面提出农业现代化发展建议。

    Agriculture is the foundation of the world. Agriculture is one of the important foundations for the prosperity of a country and region, and also plays a vital role in the development of the national economy. At the same time, the concept and road of modern development is an important part of agricultural development. Since the founding of The People's Republic of China, agricultural modernization has been highly valued by the CPC Central Committee and governments at all levels. At present, with China entering a new stage of development and the proposal of Rural Revitalization Strategy, the development of agricultural modernization has become an important part of the process of national modernization. Great changes have taken place in the theoretical connotation and development objectives of agricultural modernization in the new era. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze and explain the new connotation of agricultural modernization and build a new evaluation index system for the development of China's modernization.

    In this context, this paper first expounds the development background, development role and development significance of agricultural modernization, combs the development concept connotation and evaluation standards of agricultural modernization at home and abroad, and expounds the process and connotation of China's agricultural modernization since the founding of The People's Republic of China. Then, it explains and analyzes the theoretical connotation of Rural Revitalization and agricultural modernization in the new era, and constructs an evaluation index system of agricultural modernization in the new era, which is composed of agricultural production system, agricultural management system and agricultural industry system. Finally, taking Gansu Province as the research object, this paper uses the comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the development of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province and its cities and prefectures from 2014 to 2020. On this basis, it makes a grey prediction of the development level of all dimensions of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province during the 14th five year plan period, and uses the obstacle model to analyze the main factors affecting the development of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province.

    The conclusions are as follows: (1) the development level of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province shows a spiral trend of slow rise. The development of each dimension varies greatly. In terms of development speed, the modernization of agricultural management system develops the fastest, the development of agricultural production system takes the second place, and the development of agricultural industrial system is slow or even stagnant. (2) The number of new agricultural business entities is growing rapidly, but the internal structure and development model still need to be adjusted and improved. (3) The main factors restricting the development of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province are the insufficient guarantee of grain and other agricultural products and the low degree of industrial integration. (4) There are obvious differences in the development level of agricultural modernization in Gansu Province. The development level of Hexi region is generally higher than that of Hedong region. At the same time, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the development of agricultural modernization from four aspects: ensuring the stable production of agricultural products such as grain, standardizing the internal operation of new business entities, improving the degree of agricultural modernization according to local conditions, accelerating the integrated development of agricultural industry and the extension of industrial chain.