统计与数据科学学院知识库

    随着互联网的逐步普及和数字化进程的不断推进，不同国家、地区、行业、家庭和个体之间在拥有和应用网络信息技术上的差异造成了数字鸿沟，引发信息落差及贫富进一步分化等问题。数字鸿沟反映了各群体在信息时代所面临的机遇差别，是网络经济社会中个人、群体获取知识、掌握创新思想的能力以及创造财富的能力差距的表现，任由信息化非均衡发展必将催生新的极化格局。比起宏观地区整体水平差异，微观层面的信息技术极化现象更能体现其本质。因此，系统分析数字鸿沟问题现状，量化家庭间数字鸿沟程度，考察其时空演变特征，明确各方面影响因素及其作用机制，在缩小和弥合家庭数字鸿沟、促进数字化和智能化均衡发展等方面具有重要意义。

    本文在梳理现有文献的基础上，基于2014-2018年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，从互联网使用层面选取指标，测算家庭信息化水平，计算地区数字鸿沟指数，从城乡、省际和八大综合经济区尺度分析二者的时间演化趋势和空间分布特征；从家庭、个人和地区三个方面选取解释变量，以家庭数字鸿沟指数为被解释变量，构建平衡面板数据，经检验选取固定效应模型进行拟合，分析各因素对家庭数字鸿沟的影响程度，进而为缓解数字鸿沟提出针对性建议。

    主要结论包括：①我国互联网渗透率已超70%，信息接入层面差距逐渐消失，但互联网应用使用率极化程度仍然较高，信息使用差距较大；②数字鸿沟水平整体呈现缩小趋势，城镇数字鸿沟降幅明显，农村数字鸿沟下降缓慢，二者差距逐年扩大；③家庭信息使用水平持续升高，呈现“东高西低，南高北低”分布特征；地区数字鸿沟逐年减轻，呈现“东低西高，北重南轻”的分布特征；④各级家庭信息使用水平与地区数字鸿沟水平的地区分布相似，信息使用水平越高的地区内部极化程度越低，且发展越快的地区数字鸿沟弥合速度越快，但地区间差距有加重态势；⑤微观因素和宏观因素共同作用于家庭数字鸿沟，家庭、个人和地区因素均对家庭数字鸿沟产生影响；⑥二级数字鸿沟影响因素与一级数字鸿沟存在差异，性别、城市化水平和信息基础设施发展水平对数字鸿沟的影响逐渐消失。

    本文的主要工作及创新有：研究视角上，同时考虑宏观和微观层面，对比分析地区数字鸿沟和家庭信息使用水平的分布特征，并探究家庭数字鸿沟受宏观和微观因素的影响程度；指标选取上，依据二级数字鸿沟（技术使用差距）定义，选取家庭网络使用行为相关变量，测算家庭信息使用水平，从家庭、个人和地区三个层面选取解释变量，以家庭数字鸿沟指数为被解释变量，构建平衡面板数据；研究方法上，结合计量经济学理论，通过检验判断数据是否存在由不可观测的个体差异或异质性造成的遗漏变量问题，以此选取最优面板数据回归模型。

    With the gradual popularization of the Internet and the continuous advancement of the digitalization process, the differences in the ownership and application of network information technology among different countries, regions, industries, families and individuals have created a digital divide, causing information gaps and further polarization between the rich and the poor. The digital divide reflects the differences in opportunities faced by various groups in the information age. It is a manifestation of the gap in the ability of individuals and groups to acquire knowledge and master innovative ideas in the network economy society to create wealth. If the unbalanced development of informatization is allowed， it will give birth to a new polarization pattern. Compared with the overall level difference of macro-regions, the phenomenon of micro-level information technology polarization can better reflect its essence. Therefore, systematically analyzing the status quo of the digital divide, quantifying the degree of the digital divide among households, examining its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, and clarifying various influencing factors and their mechanisms, is of great significance to narrow and bridge the household digital divide and promote the balanced development of digitalization and intelligence.

   On the basis of combing the existing literature, this paper based on the 2014-2018 China Family Tracking Survey (CFPS) data, select indicators from the Internet use level, measure the level of household informatization, calculate the regional digital divide index, and analyze their temporal evolution trends and spatial distribution characteristics from the scales of urban and rural, inter-provincial, and eight comprehensive economic zones. Then, explanatory variables are selected from three aspects of households, individuals, and regions, and the household digital divide index is used as the explained variable to construct balanced panel data. After testing, a fixed-effect model was selected for fitting, and the degree of influence of each factor on the household digital divide was analyzed, and then put forward targeted suggestions for alleviating the digital divide.

   The main conclusions include: ①my country's Internet penetration rate has exceeded 70%, and the gap in the information access level has gradually disappeared, but the degree of polarization in the utilization rate of Internet applications is still high, and the gap in the use of information is large. ②The overall level of the digital divide has shown a narrowing trend. The urban digital divide has dropped significantly, while the rural digital divide has declined slowly, and the gap between the two has widened year by year. ③The level of household information usage continues to rise, showing the distribution characteristics of "high in the east and low in the west, high in the south and low in the north". Meanwhile, the regional digital divide has been reduced year by year, showing the distribution characteristics of "low in the east and high in the west, heavy in the north and light in the south". ④The level of household information use at all levels is similar to the distribution of the regional digital divide. The higher the level of information use, the lower the degree of internal polarization in the region, and the faster the development of the region, the faster the digital divide will be bridged, but the gaps between regions are increasing. ⑤Micro-factors and macro-factors work together on the household digital divide. Family, personal and regional factors all have an impact on the household digital divide. ⑥The factors affecting the second-level digital divide are different from the first-level digital divide. The influence of gender, urbanization level and information infrastructure development level on the digital divide gradually disappears.

    The main work and innovations of this article are: In terms of research perspective, considering both the macro and micro levels, comparative analysis of the regional digital divide and the distribution characteristics of household information use levels, and exploring the degree to which the household digital divide is affected by macro and micro factors. In terms of index selection, according to the definition of secondary digital divide (technology use gap), variables related to family Internet use behavior were selected to measure the level of family information use. Explanatory variables were selected from three levels of family, individual and region, and the family digital divide index was taken as the explained variable to construct balanced panel data. In terms of research method, combined with econometric theory, the data is tested to determine whether there is omitted variable bias caused by unobservable individual differences or heterogeneity, so as to select the optimal panel data regression model.