摘要

       中国作为世界能源消耗大国和二氧化碳排放量最高的国家，在未来一段时间内面临着严重的生态文明建设和碳减排压力的挑战。为实现2030年前达到“碳峰值”和2060年前达到“碳中和”的减排目标，各省市需高度重视节能环保工作，完善和制定更为严苛的碳排放管制政策，加强环保法律制度的执法力度。也可以说，研究并分析我国各省市和区域间涉及碳排放的相关经济指标尤为重要，本文从碳排放效率、碳排放效率指数变化率和二氧化碳边际减排成本三指标出发，为我国完善碳排放交易系统、发展低碳经济和达到减排目标提供理论支撑，也可作为政府部门制定相应碳减排政策和减排成本定价的科学依据。

       本文基于方向性距离函数，在生产规模报酬可变的背景下，利用数据包络方法（Data Envelopment Analysis）、共同前沿方法（Meta-frontier）、群组前沿方法（Group-frontier）和全局参比（Global）下的Malmquist-Luenberger指数法，选取我国30个省市和8个综合经济区的投入产出面板数据，基于前三个方法实证测算2009-2019年中国各省域的碳排放效率（TCE）、技术落差比率（TGR）和碳边际减排成本（MAC），在此基础上利用G M-L指数法测算碳排放效率指数（MLCPI）并进行分解，依次得到技术效率（TEC）变化和技术进步（TC）变化两个影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）碳排放效率和技术落差比率。从省市角度来看，共同前沿下各省市的TCE均值普遍较低且存在显著差异，仅有广东省位于最优生产性边界，达到DEA有效，其余省市存在较大的效率改善空间；群组前沿下各省市的整体碳排放效率均值较高，说明八大综合经济区的区域划分合理有效，一定程度上消除了异质性干扰。从区域角度看，黄河中游和东北地区的metaTCE和TGR明显低于区域均值，北部沿海和西南地区的groupTCE显著低于经济区均值，反映出上述地区的资源配置状况和产业结构安排相对不合理。（2）碳排放效率指数。共同前沿和群组前沿下的MLCPI均出现显著的上升趋势，且部分年份的效率变化指数大于1，表明碳排放效率较往年有所提高。其中分解值技术进步（TC）变化是促进碳排放效率持续升高的关键所在，表现在两者的变动方向显示为较为稳定的趋同性，技术效率（TEC）的均值变化较为稳定，推动作用不明显。（3）碳边际减排成本。2009-2019年，评价单元的二氧化碳MAC显示为有差异的分散式排列，但其均值呈稳定上升趋势，且2014-2019年的碳边际减排成本显著高于2009-2013年其中18个省市的MAC较低，与之相对应的是低碳减排目标；反之。中国碳边际减排成本均值为0.854万元/吨，表明降低或减少一单元二氧化碳排放量时须放弃的经济成本为8540元。

       综上所述，本文得到的政策启示为：一是加强区域合作，提高能源利用效率，要充分发挥 省市的引领辐射作用，提升区域合作层次与水平。加快技术升级，二是构建绿色能源体系。各省市要开发新能源的应用和提高可再生能源的利用率，鼓励新兴产业发展；三是引导绿色消费，转变低碳生活理念，鼓励经济主体践行绿色低碳的生产生活方式，完善碳交易市场制度改革，从而如期到达“碳峰值”阶段和实现“碳中和”目标。

Abstract

       As the world's largest energy consumer and the country with the highest carbon dioxide emissions, China is facing serious challenges of ecological civilization construction and carbon emission reduction in the future. In order to achieve the emission reduction targets of "carbon peak" by 2030 and "carbon neutral" by 2060, all provinces and cities need to attach great importance to energy conservation and environmental protection, improve and formulate more stringent carbon emission control policies, and strengthen the law enforcement of environmental protection laws and regulations. Also it can be said that the research and analysis among various provinces and cities and regions in our country involves the relevant economic indicators are particularly important for carbon emissions, this article from the carbon emissions, carbon emissions efficiency index change rate and carbon dioxide three indicators, the marginal cost of perfecting our country carbon emissions trading system, development of low carbon economy and provide theoretical support to achieve emission reduction, It can also serve as the scientific basis for government departments to formulate corresponding carbon emission reduction policies and emission reduction cost pricing.

       This paper based on the directional distance function, under the background of variable production scale return, Make use of the Data Envelopment Analysis, Common frontier method, Group-frontier method and Global Malmquist-Luenberger index method, Select the input and output panel data of 30 provinces and 8 comprehensive economic zones in China, Empirical calculation of carbon emission efficiency (TCE), technology gap ratio (TGR) and carbon marginal abatement cost (MAC) of China's provinces from 2009 to 2019 based on the first three methods. On this basis, the Carbon emission efficiency index (MLCPI) is calculated and decomposed by the G-M-L index method, and two influencing factors of technological efficiency (TEC) and technological progress (TC) are obtained successively. The results show that:(1) carbon emission efficiency and technology gap ratio. From the perspective of provinces and cities, the mean TCE values of provinces ad cities under the common frontier are generally low with significant differences. Only Guangdong province is located at the optimal productivity boundary and achieves DEA effectiveness, while other provinces and cities have a large space for efficiency improvement. The mean value of the overall carbon emission efficiency of all provinces and cities under the group frontier is relatively high, indicating that the regional division of the eight comprehensive economic zones is reasonable and effective, and the heterogeneous interference is eliminated to some extent. From the regional perspective, metaTCE and TGR in the middle reaches of the Yellow River and northeast China are significantly lower than the regional average, while groupTCE in the northern coastal area and southwest China are significantly lower than the mean of the economic zone, reflecting the relatively unreasonable resource allocation and industrial structure arrangement in the above regions. (2) Carbon emission efficiency index. The MLCPI of both common frontier and group frontier showed a significant upward trend, and the efficiency change index was greater than 1 in some years, indicating that the carbon emission efficiency was improved compared with previous years. Among them, the change of decomposition value technological progress (TC) is the key to promote the continuous increase of carbon emission efficiency, which is manifested in that the change direction of the two shows a relatively stable convergence, while the mean change of technical efficiency (TEC) is relatively stable, and the driving effect is not obvious. (3) Marginal cost of carbon emission reduction. From 2009 to 2019, the MAC of carbon dioxide in the evaluation unit showed a decentralized arrangement with differences, but its mean value showed a steady upward trend, and the marginal cost of carbon emission reduction from 2014 to 2019 was significantly higher than that from 2009 to 2013. The MAC of 18 provinces and cities was lower, which was corresponding to the low-carbon emission reduction target. On the other hand. The average marginal cost of carbon emission reduction in China is RMB 85,400 / ton, indicating that the economic cost to be forgone when reducing or reducing one unit of carbon dioxide emission is RMB 8,540.

       To sum up, the policy implications of this paper are as follows: First, to strengthen regional cooperation and improve energy efficiency, we should give full play to the leading and radiating role of frontier provinces and cities and improve the level and level of regional cooperation. Second, we will build a green energy system. All provinces and cities should develop the application of new energy and improve the utilization rate of renewable energy and encourage the development of emerging industries. Third, guide green consumption, change the concept of low-carbon life, encourage economic entities to practice green and low-carbon production and life style, improve the reform of carbon trading market system, so as to reach the stage of "carbon peak" and achieve "carbon neutrality" as scheduled.

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