会计学院知识库

“十四五”时期是我国深入推进生态文明建设的关键期。水务行业作为能够带动经济增长，保护生态环境的重要行业，已成为“十四五”时期支撑国家供给侧结 构性改革的主要动力。然而，我国水务行业的营业收入主要来源于以 PPP/BOT、 EPC 等模式为主的大型工程项目，周期长、投入大，企业时常面临现金缺口大、 融资难、整体流动性弱以及资金回收难等问题。特别是在2018年，受去杠杆、 PPP 清库存及项目落地放慢等影响，水务企业普遍面临着现金流紧缩、债券及债 务违约等问题，甚至面临资金链断裂的可能性。自2019年始，行业营商环境虽 得以改善，但其发展仍与政策扶持密切相关，企业现金流随政策与市场环境的变 化而剧烈波动。在此背景下，水务企业该如何加强对现金流的监督与管控，提升 现金流管理水平，以应对资金链可能断裂的风险，已成为企业乃至整个行业需 要重点关注的问题。 本文选取水务行业的龙头企业碧水源作为水务行业的典型案例。首先，对现金流风险度量及管理领域的代表文献进行了回顾，并对相关概念和基础理论进行 了定义与辨析。其次，基于水务项目的全生命周期为视角，通过与首创环保和东方园林两家同行业类似企业进行对比，将项目在准备阶段、建设阶段、运营与移交阶段以及跨生命周期阶段分别存在的筹资、经营、资金回收和投资等方面的风险进行分析。随后，结合熵值法和功效系数法，构建出现金流风险评价体系，基于 2016-2020 五年间数据，对碧水源存在的风险进行量化，并对其风险进行归因分析。最后，针对碧水源在项目筹资和资金回收等方面存在的显著风险，提出碧水源应该加强项目风险识别，从源头上减少现金流风险；选择适合企业的发展战略，不再盲目跟风，充分发挥自身技术优势；回归轻资产模式，降低企业负债率； 加强应收账款管控，减少坏账损失。

     The 14th Five Year Plan period is a critical period for China to further promote the construction of ecological civilization. As an important industry that can drive economic growth and protect the ecological environment, the water industry has become the main driving force supporting the national supply side structural reform during the 14th Five Year Plan period. However, the operating income of China's water industry mainly comes from large-scale engineering projects based on PPP / BOT, EPC and other modes, with long cycle and large investment. Enterprises often face problems such as large cash gap, difficult financing, weak overall liquidity and difficult capital recovery. Especially in 2018, affected by deleveraging, PPP inventory clearing and slow project implementation, water enterprises are generally facing problems such as cash flow contraction, bond and debt default, and even the possibility of capital chain rupture. Since 2019, although the business environment of the industry has been improved, its development is still closely related to policy support. Enterprise cash flow fluctuates violently with the changes of policy and market environment. In this context, how to strengthen the supervision and control of cash flow and improve the level of cash flow management in order to deal with the risk of possible rupture of the capital chain has become a key issue for enterprises and even the whole industry.

     This paper selects Originwater, a leading enterprise in the water industry, as a typical case of the water industry. Firstly, it reviews the representative literature in the field of cash flow risk measurement and management, and defines and discriminates the relevant concepts and basic theories. Secondly, from the perspective of the whole life cycle of the water project, by comparing with two similar enterprises in the same industry, the Capital Eco-Pro Group and Orient Landscape , the risks of financing, operation, capital recovery and investment in the preparation stage, construction stage, operation and handover stage and cross life cycle stage of the project are analyzed. Then, combined with entropy method and efficacy coefficient method, the risk evaluation system of emerging gold flow is constructed. Based on the data from 2016 to 2020, the risks of Originwater are quantified and their risks are attributed. Finally, in view of the significant risks of Originwater in project financing and fund recovery, it is proposed that Originwater should strengthen project risk identification and reduce cash flow risk from the source; Choose the development strategy suitable for the enterprise, no longer blindly follow the trend, and give full play to its own technical advantages; Return to the asset light mode and reduce the debt ratio of enterprises; Strengthen the control of accounts receivable and reduce bad debt losses.