金融学院知识库

随着“一带一路”倡议的不断推进，中国对“一带一路”沿线国家进行直接投资的数量不断上升。但在不断变化的投资环境以及各国之间互相竞争的背景下，中国对“一带一路”沿线国的投资活动存在着较大的风险与挑战。习近平总书记多次强调，金融安全是国家安全的重要组成部分，关系发展和安全。对“一带一路”沿线国直接投资的金融风险将对我国投资者投资决策和投资收益产生重要影响，因而对沿线国家的金融风险进行评估，并提出相应的风险管理建议具有重要意义。
本文首先对已有文献进行梳理，归纳总结对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资金融风险的诱因、风险的测度方法等内容。在对金融风险的形成与特征进行理论分析的基础上，将境内投资者对沿线国进行直接投资过程中可能面临的金融风险归纳为外汇风险、利率风险、信用风险、政府债务风险以及通货膨胀风险。本文选取“一带一路”沿线39个国家为样本，首先用熵值法对各指标进行赋权得出2017-2020年五个子风险对金融风险的贡献从大到小依次是外汇风险、通货膨胀风险、信用风险、政府债务风险、利率风险。其次，测度出金融风险综合得分，发现2017-2020年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的金融风险呈上升趋势，并得出样本国家中乌兹别克斯坦的金融风险最大。最后，根据K均值聚类方法并结合金融风险得分将样本国家分为高、中、低三类，高风险国家有：土耳其、哈萨克斯坦等国家，主要分布在中亚和西亚北非地区；中风险国家有：巴基斯坦、不丹、黑山等，主要集中在南亚地区；低风险国家有：泰国、越南、老挝等国家，主要分布在东南亚和中东欧地区；并对三类国家五个维度风险的异质性进行分析，分析发现中国投资者在对低风险国家进行直接投资时需重点管理利率风险；对中风险国家直接投资时需重点管理信用风险、政府债务风险和通货膨胀风险；对高风险国家需要审慎开展直接投资，并重点管理外汇风险。
针对前文的金融风险的表现和实证研究结果，提出有效管理对“一带一路”沿线国直接投资过程中金融风险的政策建议。主要包括：完善人民币结算体系，加强外汇风险管理；加大对银行业监管，强化利率风险管理；做好信用风险评级工作，推进信用风险管理；加强政府间沟通交流，优化政府债务风险管理；研究沿线国金融环境，注重通货膨胀风险管理。
 

As the Belt and Road Initiative continues to advance, the number of China's direct investment in countries along the Belt and Road continues to rise. However, under the background of constantly changing investment environment and competition among countries, China's investment activities in countries along the "One Belt and One Road" are confronted with great risks and challenges. General Secretary Xi Jinping has stressed many times that financial security is an important part of national security, and the relationship between development and security. The financial risk of direct investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" will have an important impact on investment decisions and returns of Chinese investors. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the financial risk of countries along the "Belt and Road" and put forward corresponding risk management suggestions.

This paper first sorts out the existing literature, and summarizes the incentives and risk measurement methods of direct investment financial risks in countries along the "Belt and Road". On the basis of theoretical analysis of the formation and characteristics of financial risks, the possible financial risks are summarized as foreign exchange risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, government debt risk and inflation risk. In this paper, 39 countries along the "Belt and Road" are selected as samples. Firstly, the entropy method is used to assign weights to each index and it is concluded that the contribution of five sub-risks to financial risks from 2017 to 2020 is successively foreign exchange risk, inflation risk, credit risk, government debt risk and interest rate risk. Secondly, the comprehensive score of financial risk is measured, and it is found that the financial risk of China's direct investment in countries is on the rise from 2017 to 2020, and Uzbekistan has the largest financial risk among the sample countries. Finally, according to the K-means clustering method and financial risk score, sample countries are divided into high, medium and low categories. The high-risk countries are: Turkey, Kazakhstan and other countries, mainly distributed in Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa; The middle risk countries are: Pakistan, Bhutan, Montenegro and so on, mainly concentrated in South Asia; Low-risk countries include: Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and other countries, mainly distributed in Southeast Asia and central and Eastern Europe; The heterogeneity of five dimensions of risk in three countries is analyzed. It is found that Chinese investors should focus on managing interest rate risk when making direct investment in low-risk countries. Direct investment in medium-risk countries should focus on credit risk, government debt risk and inflation risk. Direct investment in high-risk countries needs to be conducted prudently, with a focus on managing foreign exchange risk.

Based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical research results, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on how to manage financial risks in the process of direct investment in countries along the "Belt and Road". It mainly includes: Improve the RMB settlement system and strengthen foreign exchange risk management; Increase banking supervision and strengthen interest rate risk management; Do a good job in credit risk rating and promote credit risk management; Strengthen intergovernmental communication and exchanges to improve government debt risk management; Study the financial environment of the line countries and focus on inflation risk management.