统计与数据科学学院知识库

  自十九大报告首次提出乡村振兴战略以来，其作为解决三农问题的总抓手，对缩小城乡发展差距、提高农民生产生活质量具有重要意义，且2021年中央一号文件指出：将县域作为城乡融合发展的重要切入点，加快县域内城乡融合发展。县域作为乡村振兴战略实施的主战场，推动县域经济发展对实现乡村振兴目标至关重要。且乡村振兴战略是推动县域经济发展的重要支撑，为县域经济发展提供坚实基础。甘肃省作为西北地区的欠发达省份，省内各区域县域经济发展不平衡问题十分突出，同时各县支持乡村振兴的基础也参差不齐，加快推断甘肃省乡村振兴与县域经济协同发展，是甘肃在西部地区实现崛起的重要路径。因此，研究甘肃省乡村振兴与县域经济发展关系具有重要意义。

  本文以甘肃省87个县（区）（包括嘉峪关市）为研究对象，对各县乡村振兴水平以及县域经济发展水平进行测度，同时揭示两者之间的发展关系，以此希望提炼出促进甘肃省乡村振兴与县域经济发展同步提升的方法与经验。首先通过梳理国内外学者的研究现状，并在界定乡村振兴与县域经济概念的基础上，探寻乡村振兴与县域经济互动关系的内在逻辑；其次，在参考前人研究的基础上，构建甘肃省乡村振兴与县域经济发展水平的两个评价指标体系，利用全局熵值法对甘肃省乡村振兴与县域经济发展水平分别进行评价；再次，运用面板模型对甘肃省乡村振兴与县域经济发展关系的实证研究。实证结果如下：1.甘肃省2015—2019年乡村振兴整体水平最好的是阿塞克县，最差的是积石县，而县域经济整体水平最好的是城关区，最差的是积石县；2.甘肃省乡村振兴与县域经济有双向的格兰杰因果关系甘肃省乡村振兴与县域经济之间存在长期且稳定的联系；3.从甘肃省县域经济各项指标对乡村振兴水平的作用来看：第三产业、城镇化、中小学生专任教师、人均储蓄对乡村振兴水平提升有积极的正向作用，而人均公共财政收入对乡村振兴水平提升有反向作用；4.从甘肃省乡村振兴各指标对县域经济发展水平的作用看：农林牧渔业劳动生产率与亩均化肥施用对县域经济有反向作用，垃圾集中处理的村个数占比对县域经济有正向作用。

    Since the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the strategy of rural revitalization for the first time, it is of great significance to narrow the gap between urban and rural development and improve the quality of farmers ' production and life as the general starting point to solve the problem of agriculture, rural areas and farmers. In 2021, the Central Document No. 1 pointed out that the county should be taken as an important starting point for the integration of urban and rural development to speed up the integration of urban and rural development in the county. As the main battlefield of the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy, promoting county economic development is crucial to the realization of the goal of rural revitalization. The rural revitalization strategy is an important support to promote the development of county economy and provides a solid foundation for the development of county economy. As an underdeveloped province in northwest China, the unbalanced development of county economy in each region of Gansu Province is very prominent. At the same time, the foundation of supporting rural revitalization in each county is also uneven. Accelerating the coordinated development of rural revitalization and county economy in Gansu Province is an important way to realize the rise of Gansu in the western region. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the relationship between rural revitalization and county economic development in Gansu Province.

    This paper takes 87 counties (districts) in Gansu Province ( including Jiayuguan City ) as the research object, measures the level of rural revitalization and the level of county economic development in each county, and reveals the development relationship between the two, so as to extract the methods and experience to promote the synchronous improvement of rural revitalization and county economic development in Gansu Province. Firstly, by combing the research status of domestic and foreign scholars, and on the basis of defining the concept of rural revitalization and county economy, the internal logic of the interaction between rural revitalization and county economy is explored. Secondly, on the basis of previous studies, two evaluation index systems of rural revitalization and county economic development level in Gansu Province are constructed, and the global entropy method is used to evaluate the development level of rural revitalization and county economic development in Gansu Province. Thirdly, the panel model is used to empirically study the relationship between rural revitalization and county economic development in Gansu Province. The empirical results are as follows. 1. The overall level of rural revitalization in Gansu Province from 2015 to 2019 is the best in Aksai Kazakh Autonomous County, and the worst is Jishi County, while the overall level of county economy is the best in Chengguan District, and the worst is Jishi County; 2. Granger causality between rural revitalization and county economy in Gansu Province There is a long-term and stable relationship between rural revitalization and county economy in Gansu Province; 3. From the perspective of the effect of county economy indicators on the level of rural revitalization in Gansu Province, the tertiary industry, urbanization, full-time teachers of primary and secondary school students and per capita savings have a positive and positive effect on the improvement of rural revitalization, while per capita public financial income has a negative effect on the improvement of rural revitalization; 4. From the effect of the indicators of rural revitalization in Gansu Province on the development level of county economy, it is found that the labor productivity of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and the application of chemical fertilizer per mu have a reverse effect on the county economy, and the proportion of villages concentrated in garbage disposal has a positive effect on the county economy.