统计与数据科学学院知识库

   随着“一带一路”发展战略的不断推进，西北地区经济发展对我国区域发展战略越来越重要，甘肃省的生态发展是西北地区生态安全的重要组成部分，在维护国家安全以及制定生态安全策略中具有极其重要的地位。因此，分析甘肃省生态安全问题，对其现状进行评估，并提出提高生态安全的对策和策略，为西部大开发生态安全建设提供参考依据，有助于我国整体生态的建设发展。

   本文针对甘肃省生态环境脆弱、破坏严重、自我修复能力差等现状，运用社会经济和自然生态共生发展理论，结合特征指数法与指标体系法，以甘肃省14个市州2010年至2019年的面板数据为研究样本，紧扣生态安全本质，建立社会经济—自然生态L-V共生模型，涵盖了社会经济、环境容量和自然生态的生态安全DPSIR指标体系，利用熵权法对甘肃省以及各地级市州生态安全状况进行评价并分析影响问题的原因，最后利用灰色预测模型对甘肃省生态安全演化趋势进行分析，为促进我省生态的健康可持续发展提供参考。

   主要研究结论：(1)将共生理论引入到甘肃省生态安全研究具有可行性，此外，结合指标体系法和特征指数法确立了特征指数的生态意义，根据自然生态和共生双特征指数准确分析甘肃省及各地级市州的生态安全状况，并追溯问题的原因。(2)从时间演变来看，总体来说甘肃省生态安全状况改善明显，生态承载力得到全面提升。此外，社会经济发展指数虽然呈波动状态，但整体趋势是上升的，表明甘肃省社会经济得到提升，但相对前两个指数，提升较缓慢，且波动较大。从空间格局来看，甘肃省各地级市州生态安全演变格局差异较大。(3)从演化趋势结果来看，在未来五年甘肃省生态安全状况好转明显。但研究生态安全评价与预测的最终目的并不是为了得到一个结果，而是为了落实一个可行的保障对策，引起社会对生态安全的重视和保护。因此，针对以上分析，以实现社会经济和自然生态两大子系统的协调共生为目标，提出相应的建议，为甘肃省相关部门的生态安全保护决策提供一定的参考。

          As”The Belt and Road Initiative”development strategy is advancing, the economic development in Northwest China is becoming more and more important to China's regional development strategy. The ecological development of Gansu province is an important part of the ecological security in the Northwest China. It plays an extremely important role in safeguarding national security and formulating ecological safety strategy. Therefore, this paper analyzes the ecological security problems in Gansu Province, evaluates its current situation, and puts forward the countermeasures and strategies to improve the ecological security, so as to provide a reference basis for the ecological security construction of the western development and contribute to the overall ecological construction and development of our country.

          Aiming at the current situation of fragile ecological environment, serious damage and poor self-healing ability in Gansu Province, this paper uses the symbiotic development theory of social economy and natural ecology, combined with the characteristic index method and index system method, Panel data of 14 cities and prefectures in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2019 were selected as research samples, closely related to the nature of ecological security, and establishes a socio-economic natural ecology (L-V) symbiosis model, which covers social economy The DPSIR index system of ecological security of environmental capacity and natural ecology, uses the entropy weight method to evaluate the ecological security situation of Gansu Province and local cities and prefectures, and analyzes the causes of the influencing problems. Finally, the grey prediction model is used to analyze the evolution trend of ecological security in Gansu Province, so as to provide reference for promoting the healthy and sustainable development of ecology in Gansu Province.

           Main research conclusion: (1) the symbiosis theory is introduced into the ecological security research has feasibility in gansu province, in addition, combined with the feature of index system method and index method to establish the characteristic index of ecological significance, double characteristic index of accurate analysis according to the natural ecology and the symbiotic ecological safety and state of each prefecture, gansu province, and trace the cause of the problem. (2) From the perspective of time evolution, the ecological security of Gansu province has been improved obviously, and the ecological carrying capacity has been comprehensively improved. In addition, although the social and economic development index fluctuates, the overall trend is rising, indicating that the social economy of Gansu Province has been improved, but compared with the first two indices, the improvement is slower and the fluctuation is larger. From the perspective of spatial pattern, the evolution pattern of ecological security varies greatly among prefecture-level cities and prefectures in Gansu Province. (3) From the results of the evolution trend, the ecological security of Gansu Province will improve significantly in the next five years. However, the ultimate goal of studying ecological security evaluation and prediction is not to get a result, but to implement a feasible safeguard countermeasure, and to arouse the attention and protection of the society to ecological security. Therefore, in view of the above analysis, in order to achieve the coordination and symbiosis of the two sub-systems of social economy and natural ecology, the corresponding suggestions are put forward to provide some reference for relevant departments in Gansu Province to make ecological security protection decisions.