金融学院知识库

在需求紧缩、供给冲击、预期减弱的背景下，我国结构性去杠杆政策面临挑战。在这种情况下，企业究竟是加杠杆、稳杠杆还是降杠杆，值得探讨。非金融企业杠杆率的变化不仅会影响宏观经济，还会对股市产生一定的影响。本文从这一角度出发，深入探究非金融企业杠杆率与股票市场稳定性的作用关系，并为我国结构性去杠杆与股票市场健康发展提出相应的对策建议。

论文首先对国内外相关文献进行了梳理分析，然后探讨了非金融企业杠杆率影响股票市场稳定性的理论基础及影响机制，认为非金融企业杠杆率会通过企业财务风险与企业投资影响股票市场稳定性，这一过程中，货币政策具有调节作用，投资者情绪具有中介作用。接着利用我国沪深两市2813个A股非金融企业2005年第一季度到2021年第一季度共65个季度的相关数据，实证检验了非金融企业杠杆率对股票市场稳定性的影响作用，验证了基于企业财务风险与企业投资的传导机制，进一步检验了货币政策的调节效应以及投资者情绪的中介效应。发现我国非金融企业杠杆率上升会加剧股票市场波动，并具有显著的滞后性；非金融企业杠杆率通过影响企业财务风险和企业投资，对股票市场稳定性产生影响，相较之下，基于企业投资传导机制的影响效应更大；货币政策的不确定性对非金融企业杠杆率与股票市场稳定性之间的关系具有调节效应，宽松货币政策环境会加强两者之间的负向影响；投资者情绪在非金融企业杠杆率对股票市场稳定性的作用过程中产生了不完全中介效应。最后，论文从如何降低企业杠杆，维护股票市场稳定的角度出发，提出了宏观政策需聚焦稳杠杆与去杠杆、提升企业综合实力、实施灵活精准的货币政策以及稳定投资者情绪等对策建议。

In the context of tight demand, supply shock and weakening expectations, China's structural deleveraging policy faces challenges. In this case, the enterprise is to increase leverage, steady leverage or leverage, it is worth discussing. The change of leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises will not only affect the macro economy, but also have a certain impact on the stock market. From this point of view, this paper explores the relationship between the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and the stability of the stock market, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for China's structural deleveraging and the healthy development of the stock market.

Paper first analyzes carding the related literature at home and abroad, then discusses the non-financial companies leverage effect theory basis and the influence mechanism of the stock market stability, think the non-financial corporate leverage through the enterprise financial risk and business investment affect stock market stability, the process, regulating effects of monetary policy, investor sentiment has the intermediary function. Then, using the data of 2,813 A-share non-financial enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2021 in 65 quarters, this paper empirically tests the influence of non-financial leverage ratio on stock market stability and verifies the transmission mechanism based on corporate financial risk and corporate investment. The moderating effect of monetary policy and the mediating effect of investor sentiment are further tested. It is found that the increase of the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China will aggravate the volatility of the stock market with a significant lag. The leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises affects the stability of stock market by affecting the financial risk and investment of enterprises, but the influence based on the transmission mechanism of investment is greater. The uncertainty of monetary policy has a moderating effect on the relationship between the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and the stability of stock market, and the loose monetary policy environment will strengthen the negative effect between the two. Investor sentiment has an incomplete mediating effect on the effect of non-financial corporate leverage on stock market stability. Finally, from the perspective of how to reduce corporate leverage and maintain the stability of the stock market, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions that the macro policies should focus on stabilizing leverage and deleveraging, improving the comprehensive strength of enterprises, implementing flexible and accurate monetary policies and stabilizing investor sentiment.