国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  黄河流域是我国重要的生态发展高地和重要的经济地带，其整体发展水平相较于京津冀、粤港澳、长三角地区而言相对落后。2019年黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展上升为重大国家战略，助推了流域各地区进一步发展。流域当前经济发展相对落后、生态环境面临严峻挑战，分析其原因主要是由于过去的经济发展模式粗放，导致高端产能相对不足，低端产能过剩。为了进一步推动当前经济社会的高质量发展，可以以制造业与生产性服务业之间“双轮驱动”的发展模式为路径，探究其对高质量发展的影响。

  本文基于产业协同集聚的特征，利用2010-2019年黄河流域九省区的面板数据，在总结梳理大量文献对产业协同集聚与高质量发展的一系列理论研究的基础上，分析产业协同集聚影响高质量发展的传导路径，并采用区位熵、修正E-G指数以及TOPSIS熵权法分别测度流域各省区单一产业集聚水平、产业协同集聚水平及高质量发展水平。运用动态空间杜宾模型检验制造业与生产性服务业协同集聚对高质量发展的空间效应。研究发现:（1）黄河流域整体制造业与生产性服务业协同集聚水平呈U型趋势。其中下游地区产业协同集聚水平远高于中上游地区，中游地区产业协同集聚水平一直低于全流域平均水平。（2）2010-2019年间，黄河流域九省区中河南、陕西、四川、宁夏、甘肃五省区高质量发展水平呈现波动上升趋势。山东、山西、内蒙古、青海四省区高质量发展水平表现为波动下降趋势。（3）通过动态空间杜宾模型分析得出，黄河流域各省区高质量发展水平具有时间上的累计效应，上一期的高质量发展水平的提升会对本期的高质量发展水平产生正向影响。本地区当前这一时期高质量发展水平的提高，会对邻近地区下一期的高质量发展水平产生负面影响。（4）通过对模型进行分解，得出就直接效应而言，在短期黄河流域产业协同集聚对高质量发展呈现正向促进作用，长期产业协同集聚对高质量发展同样呈现出正向的促进作用。间接效应来看，短期内黄河流域产业协同集聚、人力资本投入对高质量发展呈现正向促进作用，在长期表现出抑制作用。最后基于本文的研究结论，提出了相应的对策建议。

      The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological development highland and economic belt in China, and its overall development level is relatively backward compared with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao and Yangtze River Delta regions. In 2019, the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin were elevated to a major national strategy, boosting the further development of all regions in the basin. At present, the economic development of the river basin is relatively backward, and the ecological environment is facing severe challenges. The reason for the analysis is mainly due to the extensive economic development model in the past, resulting in relatively insufficient high-end production capacity and low-end overcapacity. In order to further promote the current high-quality economic and social development, the development model of "two-wheel drive" between manufacturing and productive service industries can be used as a path to explore its impact on high-quality development.

      Based on the characteristics of industrial collaborative agglomeration, using panel data from nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019, and on the basis of summarizing and combing a large number of literature on industrial collaborative agglomeration and high-quality development, this paper analyzes the transmission path of industrial collaborative agglomeration affecting high-quality development, and uses location entropy, revised E-G index and TOPSIS entropy method to calculate the level of single industrial agglomeration, industrial collaborative agglomeration and high-quality development of each province and region in the basin. The dynamic spatial Doberman model is used to test the spatial effect of collaborative agglomeration of manufacturing and productive service industries on high-quality development. The study finds that: (1) The overall level of collaborative agglomeration of manufacturing and productive service industries in the Yellow River Basin shows a U-shaped trend. Among them, the level of industrial synergy agglomeration in the downstream area is much higher than that in the middle and upper reaches, and the level of industrial synergy agglomeration in the middle reaches has always been lower than the average level of the whole basin. (2) Between 2010 and 2019, the high-quality development index of the five provinces and regions of Henan, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Ningxia and Gansu in the nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend. The high-quality development index of Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Qinghai showed a downward trend of volatility.(3) Through the analysis of the dynamic space Dubin model, the high-quality development level of the provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin has a cumulative effect in time, and the improvement of the high-quality development level in the previous period will have a positive impact on the high-quality development level in the current period. The improvement of the level of high-quality development in the region in the current period will have a negative impact on the level of high-quality development in neighboring areas in the next period. (4) By decomposing the model, it is concluded that in terms of direct effects, industrial synergy agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin shows a positive role in promoting high-quality development, and long-term industrial collaborative agglomeration also shows a positive role in promoting high-quality development. From the perspective of indirect effects, in the short term, the industrial synergy agglomeration and human capital investment in the Yellow River Basin show a positive role in promoting high-quality development, and show a restraining effect in the long run. Finally, based on the research conclusions of this paper, corresponding countermeasures are proposed.