会计学院知识库

 摘要

  生物医药行业关系着国民幸福水平，对于一个国家而言至关重要。近年来，生物医药行业越来越受到国家和资本市场的关注，整个生物医药产业在市场价值、营业收入、利润总额等方面实现了快速的增长。但对比发达医药产业国家，我国生物医药产业仍呈现出企业数量多而体量小的产业缺点。参照发达国家的医药产业发展史，可以预见未来我国生物医药行业将迎来一股并购的浪潮。无论是企业并购还是价值管理，都离不开资产评估的协助。而生物医药企业有着资金密集、技术密集、投资收益高和未来高不确定性的特征，使得现有的评估方法在准确估算生物医药企业价值时一筹莫展。本文以EVA估值模型为基础，将情景概率加权法与其有效结合，推出情景概率加权与EVA结合模型，以期可以解决生物医药企业的估值难题。

  首先本文在理论介绍部分介绍了情景概率加权法与EVA模型的理论依据，为下文的模型构建与参数选择打下理论的基础。随后本文分析了生物医药企业的概念、特征和多视角下的企业价值影响因素，论述了现有评估方法在评估生物医药企业价值时的局限性，并顺势在理论上论证情景概率加权与EVA结合模型的评估可行性。再后为证明情景概率加权与EVA结合模型在实际评估中的可行性，本文引入心脉医疗作为研究案例，在心脉医疗基础上构建情景概率与EVA结合模型，运用模型评估心脉医疗在评估基准日的内在价值。最后利用心脉医疗在资本市场的市值验证情景概率加权模型的准确性。

  通过本文的研究可以发现：在评估生物医药企业价值时，情景概率加权与EVA结合模型具有很好的适用性，应该作为首选评估方法使用；按照企业的特征对企业EVA值进行调整可以得到更为科学和准确的评估价值；心脉医疗的模型构建与评估过程可以给其他生物医药企业价值评估提供参考。

Abstract

    Biopharmaceutical industry is related to the level of national happiness, which is very important for a country. In recent years, the biopharmaceutical industry has been paid more and more attention by the state and capital market. The whole biopharmaceutical industry has achieved rapid growth in market value, business income, total profit and so on. However, compared with developed countries, China's biomedical industry still presents a large number of enterprises and small industrial shortcomings. Referring to the development history of the pharmaceutical industry in developed countries, we can foresee a wave of merger and acquisition in the future. Both M & A and value management can not be separated from the assistance of assets evaluation. Because of the characteristics of capital-intensive, technology-intensive, high return on investment and high uncertainty in the future, the existing evaluation methods can not accurately estimate the value of biomedical enterprises. On the basis of Eva valuation model, this paper combines scenario probability weighting method with Eva effectively, and deduces scenario probability weighting and EVA combination model, in order to solve the valuation problem of biomedical enterprises.

    Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of scenario probability weighting method and EVA model in the part of theory introduction, which lays a theoretical foundation for the model construction and parameter selection. Then this paper analyzes the concept, characteristics and the influencing factors of the enterprise value under the multi-perspective, and discusses the limitations of the existing evaluation methods in the evaluation of the enterprise value of biomedicine, the feasibility of the combination model of scenario probability weighting and EVA is theoretically demonstrated. Then, in order to prove the feasibility of the combination model of scenario probability and EVA in the actual evaluation, this paper introduces the heart-pulse medical treatment as a research case, and constructs the combination model of scenario probability and EVA based on the heart-pulse medical treatment, the model was used to evaluate the intrinsic value of cardiac pulse therapy on the Evaluation Reference Day. Finally, the accuracy of the scenario probability weighted model is verified by the market value of heart pulse medical in the capital market.

    Through the research of this paper, we can find that the combination model of scenario probability weighting and EVA has good applicability, and should be used as the first choice of evaluation method By adjusting EVA value according to the characteristics of enterprises, we can get more scientific and accurate evaluation value, and the model construction and evaluation process of heart-pulse medicine can provide reference for other biomedical enterprises.