金融学院知识库

  “一带一路”战略与人民币国际化战略具有高度协同性，当前这两大战略皆处于初期发展阶段，未来在共建“一带一路”高质量发展背景下，人民币国际化进程需要做到稳慎推进，先从人民币区域化开始，再到人民币国际化。西亚北非地区作为“一带一路”沿线六大区域之一，其石油等天然能源资源方面有着无可比拟的优势，也有基础设施建设等方面的巨大需求，同中方共同探索包括货币支付清算方面的合作空间比较大。故研究“一带一路”倡议下西亚北非地区人民币区域化问题对人民币国际化的整体进程有着毋庸置疑的重大意义。

  本文将“一带一路”沿线的西亚北非地区作为人民币区域化的研究范围，选取西亚北非主要样本国以及中美日的货物和服务进出口总额、国内实际GDP和实际GDP平减指数三个变量，以欧元区国家的情况作为参考，在经济冲击对称性理论的基础上，构建出SVAR模型进行实证分析，对比在西亚北非区域内各个经济体的外部冲击、实际供给冲击以及实际需求冲击的对称相关性，判断人民币在该区域成为关键主导货币的可能性。结果发现人民币与西亚北非区域内国家进行货币合作的可能性并没有日元的可能性大，但要高于美元。因此可以在其中某些国家组成的次区域内率先展开人民币与其他货币的合作，再通过次货币区的范围突破，逐渐将人民币影响力辐射到整个西亚北非区域内。

    The “Belt and Road” strategy and the RMB internationalization strategy are highly synergistic. At present, both strategies are in the initial stage of development. In the future, under the background of the high-quality development of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the process of RMB internationalization needs to be advanced steadily and cautiously. , starting from the regionalization of the RMB, and then to the internationalization of the RMB. West Asia and North Africa, as one of the six major regions along the "Belt and Road", has unparalleled advantages in natural energy resources such as oil, as well as huge demands in infrastructure construction, etc., and jointly explore cooperation with the Chinese side, including currency payment and settlement. The space is relatively large. Therefore, studying the regionalization of RMB in West Asia and North Africa under the “Belt and Road” initiative is of great significance to the overall process of RMB internationalization.

    The paper takes West Asia and North Africa along the “Belt and Road” as the research scope of RMB regionalization, and selects the main sample countries of West Asia and North Africa, as well as China, the United States and Japan, the total import and export of goods and services, domestic real GDP and real GDP deflator. Three variables , taking the situation of the euro area countries as a reference, on the basis of the theory of economic shock symmetry, the SVAR model is constructed for empirical analysis, and the symmetry of external shocks, actual supply shocks and actual demand shocks of various economies in West Asia and North Africa is compared. Correlation, judging the possibility of RMB becoming a key dominant currency in the region. The results show that the possibility of currency cooperation between RMB and countries in West Asia and North Africa is not as high as that of the Japanese yen, but higher than that of the US dollar. Therefore, it is possible to take the lead in the cooperation between the RMB and other currencies in the sub-regions composed of some of these countries, and then through the scope of the sub-currency area, the influence of the RMB can gradually be radiated to the entire West Asia and North Africa region.