经济学院知识库

    气候治理是全球各国的共同性话题。经济社会发展消费了大量化石能源，产生的二氧化碳等温室气体严重威胁人类生存环境。国际组织和世界各国一直在致力于应对气候变化，多国以立法或者政策文件等形式促进碳减排。作为最大的发展中国家和碳排放国，中国在联合国大会等多个国际会议上作出承诺，将力争2030 年前碳排放达到峰值，争取 2060 年前实现碳中和。国家层面也相继出台多个政策和文件，确保我国 2030 年前实现碳达峰目标。

    我国各省份碳排放现实情况不同，学术界对于中国按时实现碳达峰目标研究较多。鉴于中国的碳达峰问题不仅事关国家自主贡献目标的履行，对于应对全球气候变化和其他国家碳减排都具有现实而深远的意义，本文依据“十四五”时期经济社会发展中绿色生态的相关指标对中国及各省份碳达峰相关因素进行现状分析的基础上，采用排放因子法核算 2010—2019 年中国各省份能源碳排放历史数据，对中国各省份到 2030 年碳排放的趋势进行了深入探究。研究发现，中国大部分省份都能提前或如期实现碳达峰，少部分省份碳达峰时间存在很大的不确定性。为了确保中国尽早实现碳达峰，本文依据各省份的碳排放实情，从优化产业结构、调整能源结构、发展节能减排技术等方面给出了切实建议。本文的研究发现揭示了中国及各省份的碳排放现状及碳达峰潜力，以自下而上的视角为我国中长期应对气候变化提供了重要参考。

        Climate Governance is a common topic among countries all over the world. Economic and social development consumes a lot of fossil energy, and the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide seriously threaten the human living environment. International organizations and countries around the world have been committed to addressing climate change, and many countries have promoted carbon emission reduction in the form of legislation or policy documents. As the largest developing country and carbon emitter, China has made commitments at the United Nations General Assembly and other international conferences to strive to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.At the national level, a number of policies and documents have been issued to ensure that China will achieve the carbon peak goal by 2030.

        The reality of carbon emissions in China's provinces is different, and there are many academic studies on China's timely realization of the goal of carbon peak. Since China's carbon peak is not only related to the implementation of the national independent contribution goal, but also has practical and far-reaching significance for coping with global climate change and carbon emission reduction in other countries, based on the current situation analysis of the relevant factors of carbon peak in China and provinces according to the relevant indicators of green ecology in economic and social development during the 14th Five Year Plan period, The emission factor method is used to calculate the historical data of energy carbon emissions of Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2019, and the trend of carbon emissions of Chinese provinces by 2030 is deeply explored. The study found that most provinces in China can achieve carbon peak ahead of time or on schedule, and there is great uncertainty in the time of carbon peak in a few provinces. In order to ensure that China can reach the peak of carbon emission as soon as possible, this paper gives practical suggestions from the aspects of optimizing industrial structure, adjusting energy structure and developing energy-saving and emission reduction technology according to the actual situation of carbon emission in various provinces. The findings of this paper reveal the current situation and peak potential of carbon emissions in China and its provinces, and provide an important reference for China's medium and long-term response to climate change from a bottom-up perspective.