会计学院知识库

    财务风险是制约企业发展的主要因素之一。经营环境的复杂多变，提高了企业财务风险演变成财务危机的概率。科学灵敏的财务风险预警模型对企业防范财务危机至关重要。通过系统地分析相关学者在财务风险预警领域的研究成果，发现将现金流相关指标纳入财务风险预警指标体系中，可减少对企业利润表相关数据的依赖，在一定程度上降低了企业盈余管理对预警结果的负面影响，增加了企业财务舞弊的难度，进而提高了预警结果对企业财务真实水平的反映程度。此外，与权责发生制相比较，收付实现制为企业提供的盈余管理空间小，相关财务数据对会计政策及会计估计变更的敏感度低，从而便于企业财务风险预警结果的比较。因此，现金流在财务风险预警中具有一定的优势。

    基于此，本文首先从晶盛机电的经营活动、筹资活动、投资活动等三个角度探析其潜在的财务风险，明确其财务风险特征，并以此为基础选择预警指标；其次采用主成分分析法，以晶盛机电自上市以来连续九年的相关财务数据为基础，确定其预警模型中变量的权重，增强了财务风险预警模型对案例公司的适用性；最后根据企业实际需求，将只有两档标准值的传统功效系数法优化至五档，以此增强预警模型对企业财务风险的敏感度，确保预警结果对企业的应用价值。

    借助该模型对晶盛机电2016—2020年的财务风险进行预警研究，得出五年间其财务风险预警等级分别为重警、重警、中警、轻警、中警。通过预警结果分析，探究了导致其财务风险的因素，并提出晶盛机电控制财务风险的措施，以期降低其财务风险预警等级，为晶盛机电发展战略目标的实现及综合竞争力的提升创造良好的财务环境。

    Financial risk is one of the primary element astricting the enterprises progress. The complexity and changeability of the business environment improves the probability of financial risk evolving into financial crisis. A scientific and sensitive financial risk pre-warning model is very important for enterprises to prevent financial crisis. Through a systematic analysis of relevant scholars in the field of financial risk pre-warning study, discovered that the relevant indicators of cash flow into the risk pre-warning index system, reducing the dependence on enterprise profit related data, to a certain extent, reduce the enterprise earnings management the negative effect on the early warning result, increasing the difficulty of enterprise financial fraud. Thus, it improves the reflection degree of the pre-warning results to the real financial level of enterprises. In addition, compared with accrual basis, cash basis provides enterprises with less room for earnings management, and the sensitivity of relevant financial data to changes in accounting policies and accounting estimates is low, so as to facilitate the industry comparison of financial risk warning results of enterprises. Therefore, cash flow has certain advantages in financial risk warning.

    On this base, primarily, this paper analyzes the potential financial risks of Jingsheng Electromechanical from three perspectives of operation activities, fund raising activities and investing activities, and makes clear the characteristics of the financial risks, and selects the early warning indicators on this basis. Secondly, principal component analysis was used to determine the weight of variables in the financial pre-warning model based on the relevant financial data of Jingsheng Electromechanical for nine consecutive years since its listing, which enhanced the applicability of the financial risk pre-warning model to the case company. In order to satisfy the needs of corporation, the traditional efficiency coefficient method with only two standard values is optimized to five levels, so as to enhance the sensitiveness of the forewarning model and ensure the application value of the early warning results to enterprises.

    With the help of this model, the financial risk of Jingsheng Electromechanical from 2016 to 2020 was pre-warning research, and the pre-warning levels of its financial risk in five years were respectively heavy alarm, heavy alarm, medium alarm, light alarm and medium alarm. By analysing of the consequence of pre-warning, this paper explores the factors leading to its financial risks, and puts forward the measures for Jingsheng Electromechanical control of financial risks, in order to reduce the level of financial risk warning, and create a good financial environment for the realization of Jingsheng Electromechanical development strategic goals and the promotion of comprehensive competitiveness.