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“两票制”、“医保控费”、“4+7带量采购”等政策的实施，使得医药流通企业面临更严峻的挑战。在宏观环境从严治理的情况下，国内医药流通企业普遍存在垫资压力大、回款慢、竞争激烈的现状。这类情况会给医药流通企业带来较大的财务风险，例如偿债风险、资金收回风险、运营风险、投融资风险等一系列的风险，如何针对相关财务风险建立适合的医药流通企业财务风险预警体系显得尤为重要。

本文在企业预警管理理论等相关理论的基础上，整理分析了国内外财务风险预警的研究，并选择瑞康医药作为研究对象，对其进行财务风险预警研究。首先，分析评价瑞康医药当前的财务风险状况，研究其构建财务风险预警体系的必要性。其次，使用Logistic回归法来建立适用于医药流通企业的财务风险预警模型。选取三十家因财务问题被 “ST”的企业和三十家财务正常的医药流通企业作为样本企业，从偿债能力、盈利能力、营运能力、发展能力、现金流量五个方面选择财务指标，结合非财务指标建立相应的预警指标备选库共计52个指标。通过正态性检验和差异性检验最终筛选出23个指标进行逐步Logistic回归建模，构建出适用于医药流通企业的财务风险预警模型。再次，结合瑞康医药的相关指标数据进行预警模型的计算应用，得到瑞康医药的财务风险预警值，并对预警效果进行判定。预警结果显示，瑞康医药2016-2020年的预警值呈下降的趋势，表明该企业2019-2023年的财务风险将呈上涨的趋势，预警值能有效反应预警结果。最后，结合相关理论和瑞康医药的实际情况，从组织保障、制度保障、经营保障三方面提出财务风险预警的保障措施，助力企业财务风险预警体系的有效实施。

本文针对提升瑞康医药的财务风险防范的相关研究对案例企业具有一定的帮助作用，也为医药流通行业内同类型企业构建财务风险预警体系提供借鉴参考。

The implementation of policies such as "two-invoice system", "medical insurance control fees", and "4+7 procurement with quantity" has made pharmaceutical commercial enterprises face more severe challenges. Under the circumstance of strict management of the macro environment, domestic pharmaceutical commercial enterprises generally have a situation of high pressure on capital advances, slow collection of payments, and fierce competition. Such situations will bring greater financial risks to pharmaceutical commercial enterprises, such as debt repayment risks, capital recovery risks, operational risks, investment and financing risks and a series of risks, how to establish a suitable financial risk early warning system for pharmaceutical commercial enterprises for related financial risks is particularly important. 

On the basis of relevant theories such as enterprise early warning management theory, this paper sorts out and analyzes the research on financial risk early warning at home and abroad, and selects Realcan Pharmaceutical as the research object to study financial risk early warning. First of all, it analyzes and evaluates the current financial risk situation of Realcan Pharmaceutical and studies the necessity of building a financial risk early warning system. Secondly, the Logistic regression method is used to establish a financial risk early warning model suitable for pharmaceutical commercial enterprises. Thirty enterprises that have been “ST” due to financial problems and thirty pharmaceutical commercial enterprises with normal financial conditions are selected as sample enterprises, and financial indicators are selected from five aspects: solvency, profitability, operational ability, development ability, and cash flow, and a total of 52 indicators are established in combination with non-financial indicators. Through the normality test and the difference test, 23 indicators were finally screened out for stepwise logistic regression modeling, and a financial risk early warning model suitable for pharmaceutical commercial enterprises was constructed. Third, combined with the relevant indicator data of Realcan Pharmaceutical, the calculation and application of the early warning model are carried out, and the financial risk warning value of Realcan Pharmaceutical is obtained, and the early warning effect is judged. The early warning results show that the early warning value of Realcan Pharmaceutical in 2016-2020 shows a downward trend, indicating that the financial risk of the company in 2019-2023 will show an upward trend, and the early warning value can effectively reflect the early warning results. Finally, combined with the relevant theories and the actual situation of Realcan Pharmaceutical, the safeguard measures for financial risk early warning are proposed from the three aspects of organizational guarantee, system guarantee and operation guarantee to help the effective implementation of the financial risk early warning system of enterprises.

This paper has a certain helpful effect on improving the financial risk prevention of Realcan Pharmaceutical, and also provides reference for similar enterprises in the pharmaceutical commercial industry to build a financial risk early warning system.