国际经济与贸易学院知识库

每年中央“一号文件”的出台，为地方农村农业农产品发展方向起到导向作用，解答了在经济新常态下农村电子商务所要突破的重点，为农产品进入电子商务渠道销售提供了政府政策保障。尽管国家大力支持发展农村农产品电商，但是天水花牛苹果的电商销售数量和电商销售规模相对其他农产品电商销售较小。 本文基于天水市花牛苹果发展现状和电子商务建设现状资料，利用天水市 150 位农户调研数据和 150 位周边消费者调研数据，建立农户电子商务销售意愿模型和消费者电子商务购买意愿模型，对影响天水市花牛苹果电子商务发展的因素进行实证分析，并得到以下结论： 
（1）目前，发展花牛苹果产业对天水农业发展非常重要，也是巩固当地脱贫攻坚工程的重要手段，更是持续带动当地农民不断增加收入的关键法宝。但是必须看到天水花牛苹果面临着苹果农户主体小而散、花牛苹果品种单一、电商交易额低、花牛品牌知名度低等发展困局。  
（2）随机对天水市花牛苹果种植户发放问卷，根据问卷数据结果得到目前12%左右的农户是自己个人销售花牛苹果，在个人销售花牛苹果的农户中有 36%的采取线上销售。80%的农户表示希望通过网络渠道售卖花牛苹果，电商营销意愿较高。对具有过网购农产品经历的消费者发放问卷，问卷结果表明，有 70%的消费者愿意（继续）线上购买花牛苹果，但也有 30%的人表示不会。  
（3）基于花牛苹果农户参与电子商务意愿模型实证分析表明：花牛苹果农户的年龄、学历、家庭中青年占比、微信好友数量、对电商作用的认知、周边参与情况、政府政策扶持力度这几个变量对农户电子商务参与意愿有显著影响。基于消费者购买花牛苹果意愿模型实证分析结果：消费者的性别、学历、农产品电商购买频率、农产品品质认知、农产品网络口碑这几个变量对消费者通过电子商务购买花牛苹果有显著影响。 
基于上述研究成果，本文提出：1、加强花牛苹果电商产业的宣传和政策扶持；2、推进品牌建设与农产品质量认定；3、加强品牌营销推广，增强消费者认可程度；4、重视花牛苹果农户参与意愿。  

The introduction of the central "No. 1 document" every year plays a guiding role in the development direction of local rural agricultural products, answers the key points to be broken through in rural e-commerce under the new economic normal, and provides government policy guarantee for the sales of agricultural products through e-commerce channels. Although the state strongly supports the development of e-commerce of rural agricultural products, the e-commerce sales volume and scale of Tianshui huaniu apple are relatively small compared with that of other agricultural products. Based on the current situation of the development of huaniu apple and the current situation of e-commerce construction in Tianshui, using the survey data of 150 farmers in Tianshui and the survey data of 150 surrounding consumers, this paper establishes the sales intention model of farmers' e-commerce and the purchase intention model of consumers' e-commerce, makes an empirical analysis on the factors affecting the development of Huaniu Apple e-commerce in Tianshui, and obtains the following conclusions: 
(1) At present, the development of flower, cow and apple industry is very important for the development of Tianshui agriculture, an important means to consolidate the local poverty alleviation project, and a key magic weapon to continuously drive local farmers to increase their income. However, we must see that Tianshui Huaniu Apple faces the development dilemma of small and scattered Apple farmers, single variety of huaniu apple, low e-commerce transaction volume and low brand popularity of huaniu. 
(2) A questionnaire was randomly distributed to flower, cow and apple growers in Tianshui city. According to the questionnaire data, about 12% of the farmers sell flower, cow and apple on their own, and 36% of the farmers who sell flower, cow and apple on their own adopt online sales. 80% of farmers said they wanted to sell huaniu and apple through online channels, and their e-commerce marketing willingness was high. A questionnaire was issued to consumers who had experience in online shopping of agricultural products. The results showed that 70% of consumers were willing to (continue) buy huaniu and apple online, but 30% said they would not. 
(3) Based on the model of Huaniu Apple farmers' willingness to participate in e-commerce, the empirical analysis shows that the variables of Huaniu Apple farmers' age, educational background, the proportion of young people in their families, the number of wechat friends, their cognition of the role of e-commerce, surrounding participation and government policy support have a significant impact on Farmers' willingness to participate in e-commerce. Based on the empirical analysis results of consumers' willingness model to buy Huaniu Apple: consumers' gender, education, purchase frequency of agricultural e-commerce, cognition of agricultural product quality and online reputation of agricultural products have a significant impact on consumers' purchase of huaniu apple through e-commerce. 
Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward: 1. Strengthen the publicity and policy support of Huaniu Apple e-commerce industry; 2. Promote brand building and quality identification of agricultural products; 3. Strengthen brand marketing promotion and enhance consumer recognition; 4. Pay attention to the willingness of farmers of flower, cow and apple to participate.