会计学院知识库

      随着我国经济的蓬勃发展，新能源技术产业得到快速发展。在此背景下，国家针对该产业发展需要出台了系列扶持政策。在我国国民经济发展中新能源汽车产业脱颖而出，深受广大投资者所关注。当前的新能源汽车发展时间仍然较短，未来成长空间依旧较大，受到政策性影响较为明显，导致了新能源汽车的发展伴随着较大的不确定性，投资者也面临了更多的风险性。所以，新能源汽车企业中极易被忽视的期权价值对其企业价值的影响非同小可。通常运用实物期权模型时需要获取参数的一个固定数值，而实务中很难通过主观评价得到精确的参数。因此，利用实物期权法对新能源汽车企业价值评估时，存在主观性过强导致评估结果准确性不足的问题。
      本文通过对新能源汽车企业现有研究的梳理及其价值构成的研究后，发现评估其整体价值时，除了整体现有经营性资产的价值，还存在大量期权价值，即管理层对企业投资决策的选择权价值，而单一使用传统评估方法忽略了针对选择权这部分的价值。因此，本文将实物期权模型引入新能源汽车企业价值评估中，通过研究发现，固定值的模型参数取值会导致评估结果与市场的动态变化有较大差异，故将借鉴模糊数学理论，进一步修正实物期权的定价模型参数，从而更加全面、合理、科学的建立评估新能源汽车企业价值的模型。为了验证改进后的评估模型的可行性，本文选取在新能源汽车企业里的龙头企业比亚迪公司作为典型案例进行研究分析，并应用改进后的模糊实物期权模型来评估比亚迪汽车企业的价值，并与传统实物期权定价模型对比分析评估基准日比亚迪的市场价值。研究发现应用改进后的模糊实物期权模型计算出的比亚迪企业内在价值与评估基准日的市场价值更为接近。
      本文的研究结果表明，立足于价值评估的完整性，在评估新能源汽车企业时应该重点考虑实物期权价值，这对相关领域引入实物期权定价模型作为一个很好的补充。同时，在模糊数学的基础之上对实物期权模型参数取值的修正，确保构建的模型更加符合市场的真实情况，增加评估结果的准确性。

      Nowadays, with the vigorous development of China economy and the rapid rise of new energy technology industry, China has also issued a series of positive policies to support the development of this industry. Under this background, the new energy technology industry has gradually become an important supporting force of the national economy, and the rapid development of this industry has also become the focus of investors' attention. At present, the development time of new energy vehicles is still short, the future growth space is still large, and it is obviously influenced by policies. These factors together lead to greater uncertainty in the development of new energy vehicles, so investors are also facing more risks. Therefore, the potential option value in new energy automobile enterprises has become an important consideration in evaluating enterprise value. Usually, it is necessary to obtain a fixed value of parameters when using real option model, but it is difficult to obtain accurate parameters through subjective evaluation in practice. Therefore, when using the real option method to evaluate the value of new energy automobile enterprises, there is a problem that the subjectivity is too strong and the accuracy of the evaluation results is insufficient.
      In this paper, the preliminary research and value composition of new energy automobile enterprises are analyzed at the initial stage, and it is found that the value of new energy automobile enterprises not only has the value of operating assets, but also has the value of real options, that is, the value of management’s right to choose investment decisions of enterprises. At this time, the traditional evaluation method can not accurately and comprehensively reflect the value of the option. Therefore, this paper introduces the real option model into the value evaluation of new energy automobile enterprises. It is found that the value of the model parameters with fixed values will lead to great differences between the evaluation results and the dynamic changes of the market. The author will learn from fuzzy mathematics theory, further revise the pricing model parameters of real options, and build a more comprehensive, accurate and scientific value evaluation model of new energy automobile enterprises based on fuzzy real options.To verify the feasibility of the improved evaluation model, this paper will take BYD Company, which is a representative company in new energy automobile enterprises, as a case for empirical analysis. The author applies the improved fuzzy real option model to evaluate the value of BYD’s automobile enterprises, and compares its evaluation results with those of traditional real option pricing model with BYD’s market value on the benchmark date. The results show that the intrinsic value of BYD enterprise calculated by the improved fuzzy real option model is closer to the market value of the benchmark date.In order to verify the feasibility of the improved evaluation model, this paper will take BYD Auto, which is a representative company in new energy automobile enterprises, as a case for empirical analysis. The author applies the improved fuzzy real option model to evaluate the value of BYD Auto, and compares its evaluation results with those of traditional real option pricing model with BYD Auto’s market value on the benchmark date. The results show that the intrinsic value of BYD Auto calculated by the improved fuzzy real option model is closer to the market value of the benchmark date.
      The research results of this paper show that, based on the integrity of valuation, the value of real option is an essential factor in the process of evaluating new energy automobile enterprises, which can be a good supplement for the introduction of real option pricing model. Moreover, based on the fuzzy mathematics theory, the modification of the parameters of the real option model can ensure that the model is more in line with the real situation of the market and improve the accuracy of the evaluation results.