金融学院知识库

近年来，地方政府债务高企已经成为掣肘我国经济发展以及金融稳定的主要因素，特别是在全球经济下行压力凸显、各地新冠疫情肆虐以及我国经济增长模式转变等诸多因素的影响下，我国地方政府的收支矛盾日渐凸显。在预算管理的外在约束以及刺激经济增长的内在激励的双重作用下，我国地方政府开始通过各类融资平台进行债务融资，并通过基建投资等方式来维持经济的稳定增长，随之而来的是地方政府债务规模的无序扩张，债务风险的逐步攀升。合理的地方政府投融资活动的确能够在一定条件下刺激经济，然而过高的债务规模会加大地方政府的偿债压力和信用风险，并对金融稳定造成负面影响，进而影响金融资源的配置效率，抑制经济增长，经济增长放缓又会进一步导致地方政府财政收入减少，收支缺口加大，并导致债务风险的进一步积聚。因此，我国地方政府债务问题是经济结构矛盾不断累积、金融风险相互渗透、相互影响的综合反映。正是基于这一背景，本文就地方政府债务扩张对金融稳定性的影响展开了研究。

首先，本文在明斯基描述的“金融不稳定理论”的框架下，在地方政府债务规模扩张、经济增长以及金融体系稳定相互作用、密切影响的背景下，就地方政府的债务规模扩张对金融稳定的影响机理进行了梳理；其次，本文搜集了我国地方政府融资平台（共2241家）的债务融资数据，利用资金来源法对地方政府显性、隐性债务规模进行了估计，并分析了地方政府的债务规模无序扩张所带来的债务风险；最后，本文对商业银行不良贷款率等30个基础指标进行了主成分分析，并合成了代表债务风险、资产价格、杠杆率以及经济增长四个维度的相关变量，进而通过对各变量构建VAR模型对相关的假设进行验证，最后得出了结论和相应的建议。

研究结果显示，截止到2020年末，我国地方政府的债务规模已高达81万亿元，其中显性债务规模约24万亿元，隐性债务规模约57万亿元，并且地方政府融资平台的负债率正逐年上升，尤其是在全球新冠疫情蔓延及经济增速放缓的冲击下，部分小规模地方政府融资平台的盈利状况、偿债能力出现了明显的恶化，地方政府债务风险正逐步扩大；另外，实证结果显示，地方政府债务规模的不合理扩张还会导致宏观增速放缓、造成债务风险、产生资产泡沫、促使杠杆率上升，这些风险隐患会进一步通过“银行信贷”及“资产负债表”等渠道蔓延至金融系统，削弱金融系统的资源配置效率，并进一步导致金融不稳定因素的滋生。

In recent years, our country's high local government debt has become a major factor hampering our country's economic development and financial stability. Especially under the influence of many factors such as the word wide economic downturn, the influence of the new crown epidemic, and the transformation of our country's economic growth model, the revenue and expenditure of my country's local governments Conflicts are gradually emerging. Under the dual effects of the external constraints of budget management and the internal incentives to stimulate economic growth, local governments in my country tend to use various financing platforms to finance debt and stimulate economic growth through infrastructure investment. The scale of local government debt in my country continues to rise, and debt risks continue to accumulate. Reasonable local government investment and financing activities can indeed promote economic growth under certain conditions, but excessive debt expansion will increase the debt repayment pressure and default risk of local governments, leading to the breeding of financial instability factors, and the instability of the financial system will affect resources. Allocation efficiency inhibits economic growth, and the slowdown in economic growth will further reduce local government fiscal revenue, increase the gap between revenue and expenditure, and lead to further accumulation of debt risks. Therefore, my country's local government debt problem is a comprehensive reflection of the continuous accumulation of economic structural contradictions, the mutual penetration and mutual influence of financial risks. In this context, that this paper studies the influence of local government debt expansion on the stability of financial.

First, under the framework of “Financial instability theory”described by Minsky, under the background of local government debt, economic growth and financial stability, on the local government debt expansion on the financial stability of the impact of the mechanism of sorting out;Secondly, This paper collects data on the debts of the local government financing platforms, uses the source of funds method to measure the scale of local government explicit and implicit debt, and analyzes the debt risks brought about by the expansion of local government debt. Finally, this paper makes a principal component analysis of 30 basic indicators such as non-performing loan rate of commercial banks, and synthesizes the relevant variables representing four dimensions of debt risk, asset price, leverage ratio and economic growth, then through the Var model of the variables to verify the relevant assumptions, and finally draw conclusions and corresponding policy recommendations.

The results show that by the end of 2020, the debt scale of local governments in China has reached 81 trillion yuan, of which the explicit debt scale is about 24 trillion yuan and the implicit debt scale is about 57 trillion yuan, and the debt ratio of local government financing platforms is increasing year by year,especially under the impact of the spread of the global new crown epidemic and the slowdown of economic growth, the profitability and solvency of some local government financing platforms have deteriorated significantly, and local government debt risks are gradually expanding; in addition, empirical results show that, The unreasonable expansion of local government debt will also lead to a slowdown in macro growth, create debt risks, create asset bubbles, and increase leverage ratios. These hidden risks will further spread to “the bank credit channel” and “the balance sheet channel”. The financial system affects the efficiency of resource allocation in the financial system, and further leads to the breeding of financial instability factors.