统计与数据科学学院知识库

    随着数据逐渐成为一种新的生产要素，“数字经济”开始走进了人们的视野。中国作为G20杭州峰会的主席国,首次将"数字经济"列为G20创新增长蓝图中的一项重要议题。在这次会议上，二十国集团讨论通过了《二十国集团数字经济发展与合作倡议》,这是全球首个由多国领导人共同签署的数字经济政策文件。该倡议抓住了中国数字化的重大历史机会,为克服宏观经济下行,中国经济重焕生机提出了方案,在该倡议提出后,中国数字经济的迅速健康发展有了明确的方向,该倡议的提出也对中国产业结构升级具有重大的指导意义。此外,该倡议还对数字经济的含义进行了全新的定义,作为我国国民经济的重要组成部分，数字经济在推动国民经济健康、持久、高速的发展过程中扮演着关键的角色,而G20数字经济倡议的提出便成为了推动中国产业结构升级的新动力。本文从G20数字经济倡议入手，研究G20数字经济倡议对产业结构升级的影响，G20数字经济倡议指的是《二十国集团数字经济发展与合作倡议》，由于该倡议的实施是在全国范围内铺开的，所以并不存在完全不受倡议影响的控制组，但是不同省份受到该倡议的影响程度是不一样的，所以本文选取数字经济发展指数作为不同个体受到的政策处理强度的指标，此时，个体维度的变化并不是从0到1的变化，而是连续变化的，个体虚拟变量也变为了连续变量，用以表示不同的省份受到的政策影响大小，因此本文运用广义双重差分模型来研究G20数字经济倡议对产业结构升级的影响。

首先，本文基于理论层面对G20数字经济倡议影响产业结构升级的机理进行分析，构建影响机理图，其次，基于数据的可得性，对我国30个省、市自治区（西藏、港澳台除外）的数字经济发展水平进行了测算，总共搜集整理了我国2013-2020年的相关经济变量的数据，然后从多个方面，多个层次以及多个视角，在考虑了尽可能的全面和准确之后，分三级来构建数字经济指标体系，总共建立了5个一级指标，8个二级指标，41个三级指标，运用熵权法对数字经济发展指数进行了测算，然后将每个省、市自治区的这8年的数字经济发展指数进行平均，对平均结果进行排序，得出我国东部的数字经济发展水平是远远大于西部地区的数字经济发展水平的。最后，设定政策时点为《二十国集团数字经济发展与合作倡议》的通过时间2016年，将2016年之前设定为政策前，取值为0，将2016年之后设定为政策之后，取值为1，将时间虚拟变量与数字经济发展指数的交叉项作为核心变量引入模型中，研究G20数字经济倡议对产业结构升级的影响。最后，通过构建分位数双重差分模型来研究G20数字经济倡议对产业结构升级在不同分位点处的影响。本文通过上述分析后，得出了如下结论：数字经济发展水平排在前列的地区主要为东部地区，依次为北京、上海等地区，发展水平较低的地区是新疆、云南等地区，位于中国的西部，可以得出，我国的数字经济发展水平自东向西呈现递减的发展趋势。另外，我国不同省份的二、三产业的增加值所占比重也存在着很大的差距，这直接导致了产业结构高级化水平参差不齐，东部地区的产业结构高级化水平和西部地区的产业结构高级化水平之间也存在着很大的差距，因此，西部地区的产业结构升级和数字经济的发展水平都更应该受到足够的重视。G20数字经济倡议对产业结构升级有着显著的促进作用，而且该倡议的提出对数字经济发展水平高的地区的产业结构升级的促进作用要显著的大于对数字经济发展水平低的地区的促进作用。建立分位数双重差分模型得出随着分位点的升高，G20数字经济倡议对产业结构升级的影响逐渐减弱。

With data has gradually become a new factor of production, "digital economy" has come into people's vision. China is the host of the 2016 G20 meeting. At this meeting, "digital economy" was discussed as a very important topic. Finally, the G20 meeting discussed and adopted the G20 digital economy development and cooperation initiative, which seized the major historical opportunity of China's digitization and put forward a plan to overcome the macroeconomic downturn and rejuvenate China. After this initiative is put forward, the rapid and healthy development of China's digital economy will have a clear direction, and its proposal will have great guiding significance for the improvement of China's industrial structure. In addition, the initiative also has a new definition of the meaning of the digital economy. As an important part of China's national economy, the digital economy will play a key role in promoting the healthy, lasting and rapid development of the national economy. The emergence of the G20 digital economy initiative has formed a new driving force to promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure. The G20 digital economy initiative refers to the G20 digital economy development and Cooperation Initiative. Since the implementation of the initiative is spread throughout the country, there is no control group completely unaffected by the initiative, but the impact of the initiative is different in different provinces, Therefore, this paper selects the digital economy development index as the policy processing intensity index for different individuals. At this time, the change of individual dimension is not from 0 to 1, but continuous, and the individual virtual variable also becomes a continuous variable to represent the impact of policies on different provinces. Therefore, this paper uses the generalized double difference model to study the impact of G20 digital economy initiative on the upgrading of industrial structure.

Firstly, based on the theoretical level, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the G20 digital economy initiative affecting the upgrading of industrial structure and constructs the impact mechanism diagram. Secondly, based on the availability of data, this paper calculates the development level of digital economy in 30 provinces, collects and sorts out the data of relevant economic variables in the eight years before 2020, and then from many aspects, After considering the comprehensiveness and accuracy as much as possible, the digital economy index system is constructed at three levels. A total of 8 secondary indicators and 41 tertiary indicators are established. The digital economy development index is calculated by using the entropy weight method, and then the digital economy development index of each province, city and autonomous region in these eight years is averaged to rank the average results, It is concluded that the development level of digital economy in eastern China is far greater than that in Western China. Finally, the policy time point is set as the adoption time of the G20 digital economy development and Cooperation Initiative in 2016. Before 2016 is set as before the policy, the value is 0, and after 2016 is set as after the policy, the value is 1. The cross term of time dummy variable and digital economy development index is introduced into the model as the core variable to study the impact of G20 digital economy initiative on industrial structure upgrading. Finally, by constructing a quantile double difference model to study the impact of G20 digital economy initiative on the upgrading of industrial structure at different quantiles, that is, provinces, cities and autonomous regions with different levels of upgrading of industrial structure are affected by G20 digital economy initiative. Through the above analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: the areas with the highest development level of digital economy are mainly the eastern region, followed by Beijing, Shanghai and other regions, and the areas with lower development level are Xinjiang, Yunnan and other regions, which are located in the west of China. It can be concluded that the development level of China's digital economy shows a decreasing trend from east to west. In addition, there is also a big gap in the proportion of the added value of the secondary and tertiary industries in different provinces of China, which directly leads to the uneven level of industrial structure upgrading. There is also a big gap between the industrial structure upgrading level in the eastern region and the industrial structure upgrading level in the western region. Therefore, the industrial structure upgrading level and the development level of digital economy in the western region should be paid enough attention. The G20 digital economy initiative has a significant role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, and the promotion of the initiative to regions with high level of digital economy development is significantly greater than that to regions with low level of digital economy development. The establishment of quantile double difference model shows that with the increase of quantile, the impact of digital economic policy on the upgrading of industrial structure gradually weakens.