国际经济与贸易学院知识库

随着21世纪互联网的快速发展及全球经济一体化的加深，对外直接投资对于一国（地区）深度融入到全球经济、参与国际分工具有重要的意义。自中国加入WTO以来，中国对外直接投资的规模不断增加，同时也影响了母国的出口效应。为了研究中国对外直接投资的出口效应，国内外学者对其进行了研究，但因研究样本和样本时间选取的不同，结论有一些差异，且相对于传统的贸易方式，较少考虑到在新技术条件下，互联网普及可能产生的调节作用。鉴于此，本文首先研究中国对外直接投资的出口效应，并在此基础上探究东道国互联网普及对中国OFDI的出口效应的调节作用，对于优化中国OFDI的出口效应有着重要的意义。

本文采用分步回归的方法，基于146个国家2003—2018年中国OFDI的非平衡面板数据，探究中国OFDI的出口效应及影响机制，在此基础上，进一步探究东道国互联网普及对其的调节作用。研究结果发现：第一，从全样本看，中国OFDI具有出口创造效应，而东道国互联网普及对其具有负向调节作用，具体表现为当东道国互联网普及率较低时，增加中国OFDI会促进中国的贸易出口，当东道国互联网普及率较高时，减少中国OFDI也会促进中国的贸易出口。第二，从经济发展水平不同的角度来看，中国对四类东道国直接投资均具有出口创造效应，但回归的系数大小有所不同，同时低收入国家、低中等收入国家、及高收入国家的互联网普及对中国OFDI的出口效应具有负向调节作用，与前文的研究结果保持一致，说明了本文研究结果的可靠性，而高中等国家的互联网普及不具有明显的调节作用，可能的原因在于市场需求结构与中国的市场需求结构相似。最后，为避免东道国互联网普及造成的冲击，优化中国对外直接投资的出口效应，根据本文研究的结论，提出如下政策建议：第一，提升中国OFDI的质量；第二，优化中国OFDI的比例；第三，差异化的进行OFDI。

With the rapid development of the Internet and the deepening of global economic integration in the 21st century, foreign direct investment is of great significance for a country (region) to deeply integrate into the global economy and participate in international distribution. Since China joined the WTO, the scale of China's foreign direct investment has continued to increase, and it has also affected the export effect of the home country. In order to study the export effect of China's foreign direct investment, scholars at home and abroad have conducted research on it. However, the study samples and sample time are different, the conclusions are somewhat different,and compared with the traditional trade methods, less consideration is given to the regulatory effect that the popularization of the Internet may have under the condition of new technologies. Because of this, this paper first studies the export effect of China's foreign direct investment, and on this basis, explores the moderating effect of the Internet popularization of the host country on the export effect of China's OFDI, which is of great significance for optimizing the export effect of China's OFDI.

This paper adopts the method of stepwise regression, based on the unbalanced panel data of China's OFDI in 146 countries from 2003 to 2018, to explore the export effect and impact mechanism of China's OFDI. The findings are as follows: First, across the entire sample,China's OFDI has an export-creating effect, while the Internet penetration in the host country has a negative moderating effect on it. Specifically, when the Internet penetration rate in the host country is low, increasing China's OFDI will promote China's economic growth. Trade exports, when the Internet penetration rate of the host country is high, reducing China's OFDI will also promote China's trade exports. Second, from the perspective of different levels of economic development, China's direct investment in the four categories of host countries has an export-creating effect, but the magnitude of the regression coefficient is different. Internet penetration has a negative moderating effect on the export effect of China's OFDI, which is consistent with the previous research results. The demand structure is similar to the market demand structure in China. At last, in order to avoid the impact of the host country's Internet popularization and optimize the export effect of China's OFDI,According to the conclusions of this study, the following policy recommendations are put forward: first, improve the quality of China's OFDI; second, optimize the proportion of China's OFDI; Third, conduct OFDI in a differentiated manner.