CAFTA 原产地规则的限制性对中国出口的影响研究

作者	张敏
姓名汉语拼音	zhangmin
学号	2019000002020
培养单位	兰州财经大学
电话	18293101792
电子邮件	1105776620@qq.com
入学年份	2019-9
学位类别	学术硕士
培养级别	硕士研究生
学科门类	经济学
一级学科名称	应用经济学
学科方向	国际贸易学
学科代码	020206
第一导师姓名	杨志龙
第一导师姓名汉语拼音	yangzhilong
第一导师单位	兰州财经大学
第一导师职称	教授
题名	CAFTA 原产地规则的限制性对中国出口的影响研究
英文题名	Research on the Influence of the restriction of the Rules of Origin of CHINA-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement on China's export
关键词	中国—东盟自由贸易区优惠原产地规则出口增长贸易约束效应
外文关键词	CHINA-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement ; preferential rules of origin ; Export growth ; Trade constraint effect
摘要	在 WTO 多边贸易机制停滞，全球贸易体系面临规则和格局重构的背景之下，世界范围内的自由贸易区大量涌现。中国—东盟自由贸易区是中国签署的首个国际区域自由贸易协定，也是发展中国家间最大的自由贸易区。2002 年中国和东盟十国签署《中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议》，标志着 CAFTA 建设进程正式开启。2010 年 1 月 1 日，中国-东盟自贸区正式建成。2016 年 10 月 22 日中国- 东盟自贸区升级《议定书》对所有协定成员全面生效是双方不断深化拓展经贸合作的重要成果，该议定书是中国完成的第一个自贸区升级协议。原产地规则是优惠市场的准入条件，在自由贸易协定中具有核心作用。优惠原产地规则的限制水平影响协定成员国企业微观层面贸易决策的同时也影响着各成员国宏观层面的福利效应。基于优惠原产地规则的差异性和中国与东盟经贸合作的重要性，本文通过测度 CAFTA 原产地规则限制指数结合中国对东盟各国贸易状况研究 CAFTA 原产地规则的限制性对中国出口的影响。首先，本文对优惠原产地规则概念、分类、适用范围、作用等基本问题进行总结，梳理了国内外有关优惠原产地规则的文献。其次，本文以中国-东盟自贸协定优惠原产地规则为研究对象，通过 2010-2019 年 HS6 位编码下的中国-东盟各国产品贸易数据，基于修正的引力模型进行回归实证分析了 45 个细分行业异质性优惠原产地规则的限制性对出口的影响。在其他变量恒定的情况下，Roo 每降低 1 个单位，会释放平均 173.39%的出口增长空间。通过随机效应模型进行稳健性检验，上述结论仍然成立。最后，在上述分析的基础上，对我国企业未来利用优惠原产地规则提出展望，提高原产地证书的利用率有利于充分释放关税大幅降低引致的贸易红利。
英文摘要	In the context of the stagnation of the WTO multilateral trade mechanism and the restructuring of the global trade system, a large number of free trade areas have emerged around the world. China-asean Free Trade Area is the first international and regional free trade agreement signed by China and the largest free trade area among developing countries. In 2002, China and ten ASEAN countries signed the framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation, marking the official start of the CAFTA construction process. On January 1, 2010, china-asean Free Trade Area was formally established. The full entry into force of the Protocol on the Upgrading of the China-Asean Free Trade Area for all asean members on October 22, 2016 is an important outcome of deepening and expanding economic and trade cooperation between the two sides. The Protocol is also the first agreement on upgrading the CHINA-ASEAN Free Trade Area completed by China. Rules of origin are the access conditions for preferential markets and play a central role in free trade agreements. The restriction level of preferential rules of origin not only affects the trade decisions of enterprises in the member countries of the AGREEMENT at the micro level, but also affects the welfare effect of each member country at the macro level. Based on the difference of preferential rules of origin and the importance of economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN, this paper studies the influence of restrictions of CAFTA rules of origin on China's export by measuring the restriction index of CAFTA rules of Origin and combining with the trade status between China and ASEAN countries. First of all, this paper summarizes the concept, classification, scope of application and function of preferential rules of origin, and sorts out the literature on preferential rules of origin at home and abroad. Secondly, this paper takes the preferential rules of origin of China-Asean FREE Trade Agreement as the research object. Through the product trade data of China-Asean countries under the HS6-bit code from 2010 to 2019, it conducts a regression empirical analysis based on the modified gravity model to analyze the impact of the restriction of the preferential rules of origin of heterogeneity on the export of 45 subsectors. Holding other variables constant, a unit reduction in Roo will release an average of 173.39% of export growth space. The results of robustness test of random effect model still hold. Finally, on the basis of the above analysis, this paper puts forward the prospect for Chinese enterprises to use the preferential rules of origin in the future.
学位类型	硕士
答辩日期	2022-05-29
学位授予地点	甘肃省兰州市
语种	中文
论文总页数	56
参考文献总数	69
馆藏号	0004125
保密级别	公开
中图分类号	F74/238
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/32159
专题	国际经济与贸易学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张敏. CAFTA 原产地规则的限制性对中国出口的影响研究[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2022.

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