统计与数据科学学院知识库

目前，我国经济正朝着高质量发展的方向转变，先进制造业和现代服务业是国民经济发展的两大支柱产业，推进先进制造业和现代服务业的深度关联是推动经济高质量发展的重要手段。

本文利用我国2002-2017年投入产出表，编制以2002年为基期年份的2002-2017年可比价投入产出表。一从先进制造业和现代服务业的总体发展水平、各细分行业的行业特征等方面对先进制造业和现代服务业目前的发展现状进行了分析；二分别从产业关联性、产业波及效应方面分析先进制造业与现代服务业整体之间的产业关联。三进一步基于细分行业层面和不同水平行业层面分析两大产业各细分行业之间的产业关联性。研究发现：现代服务业的发展速度明显快于先进制造业，但先进制造业还是占主导地位。现代服务业中科研与技术服务业和信息计算机软件业的发展速度越来越快，但对现代服务业的整体产出贡献率还是偏低。先进制造业对国民经济的拉动水平明显高于各产业的平均水平，其中高技术制造业具有“影响力高，感应度低”的特点，中低技术制造业具有“影响力低，感应度高”的特点。二者的产业关联正由低端技术产业关联向高端技术产业关联转变。

At present, China's economy is changing towards high-quality development. Advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry are the two pillar industries of national economic development. Promoting the deep association between advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry is an important means to promote high-quality economic development.

Based on the input-output table of China from 2002 to 2017, this paper compiled the variable-price input-output table of China from 2002 to 2017. Firstly, the present development status of advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry is analyzed from the aspects of the overall development level of advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry, and the characteristics of each subdivision industry. Secondly, the industrial association between advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry is analyzed from the aspects of industrial association and industrial ripple effect. Thirdly, the industrial correlation between each subdivision of the two industries is further analyzed based on the level of subdivision and different levels of industry. It is found that the development speed of modern service industry is obviously faster than that of advanced manufacturing industry, but advanced manufacturing industry still plays a leading role. In modern service industry, scientific research and technology service industry, information transmission, computer service and software industry are developing faster and faster, but the contribution rate to the overall output of modern service industry is still low. The pulling level of advanced manufacturing industry to the national economy is significantly higher than the average level of various industries. Among them, high-tech manufacturing industry has the characteristics of "high influence and low sensitivity", and medium and low-tech manufacturing industry has the characteristics of "low influence and high sensitivity". The industrial association between the two is changing from low-end technology industry association to high-end technology industry association.