金融学院知识库

乡村振兴战略的提出既是多年来国家实施和推进规模化经营、直接补贴改革、脱贫攻坚等重大“三农”政策的全面整合，也是在新时期推动全社会走向共同富裕的关键之举。乡村振兴战略涵盖着五个方面的振兴，但最终都要落到农村产业发展和农民生活富裕。然而，由于农业生产的弱质性，使其很容易受到各类风险的影响。政策性农业保险自实施以来，随着保障水平的提高，在乡村治理和农业生产中起到了积极的推动作用和调控功能。同时，在乡村振兴战略推进中，农业保险发展的政策环境、市场空间、运营机制等也将发生深刻变化，这为农业保险实现高质量转型提供了历史机遇。但是，农业保险与乡村振兴之间的动态互动情况是怎样的？二者到底处于何种程度的协调发展水平？两者的协调水平在时空两个维度上存在怎样的差异性？推动两者协调发展的因素又是什么？

基于此，文章进行了如下研究：第1、2章明确阐述本文的研究背景和意义，系统梳理了当前国内外的研究现状和文章论证所需要的相关概念和理论；第3、4章着重探讨农业保险与乡村振兴协调互动发展的理论逻辑与现实基础；第5、6、7章为实证分析，通过构建指标体系并运用面板向量自回归模型证明农业保险与乡村振兴动态互动效应，接着运用耦合协调度模型具体探讨二者协调发展的程度与所处阶段，分析两者的协调水平在时空两个维度上存在的差异性。最后运用灰色关联度模型寻找推动两者协调发展的内外部因素；第8章为研究结论与政策建议。

主要研究结论：农业保险与乡村振兴之间存在正向的相互关系，但相互贡献度较低，而加深趋势显现；二者之间逐步融合、协调发展的效应逐渐凸显，耦合协调度等级发生了明显迁移，轻度及濒临失调省份占比下降至零，初级协调省份占比不断扩大，勉强协调成为主要类型；耦合协调水平存在较大的区域差异，呈现东高、中平、西低的分布格局，且存在正的空间自相关，局部关联特征明显，地区带动性不强；造成两者耦合协调空间差异的内部因素中，农林牧渔业总产值、农村用电量、农业保险赔付率起到关键性作用，外部因素中的路网密度和环境规制驱动力最强。

相应政策建议：加大政策支持，完善农险发展环境；实施数据共享，促进农业科技投入；推进农村治理，完善农村风险管理；激发产品创新，提供全面风险保障；加强地区联系，发挥借鉴带动作用。

The proposal of Rural Revitalization Strategy is not only the comprehensive integration of major "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" policies implemented and promoted by the state for many years, such as large-scale operation, direct subsidy reform and poverty alleviation, but also the key to promote the whole society towards common prosperity in the new era. The Rural Revitalization Strategy covers five aspects of revitalization, but ultimately it should fall into the development of rural industries and the prosperity of farmers. However, due to the weakness of agricultural production, it is vulnerable to various risks. Since the implementation of policy agricultural insurance, with the improvement of security level, it has played a positive role in promoting and regulating rural governance and agricultural production. At the same time, in the promotion of Rural Revitalization Strategy, the policy environment, market space and operation mechanism of agricultural insurance development will also undergo profound changes, which provides a historical opportunity for agricultural insurance to realize high-quality transformation. However, what is the dynamic interaction between agricultural insurance and Rural Revitalization? To what extent are they in coordinated development? What are the differences between the coordination level of the two in the two dimensions of time and space? What are the factors that promote the coordinated development of the two?

Based on this, the paper carries out the following research: Chapter 1 and 2 clearly expounds the research background and significance of this paper, and systematically combs the current research status at home and abroad and the relevant concepts and theories needed for the demonstration of the article; Chapter 3 and 4 focus on the theoretical logic and practical basis of the coordinated and interactive development of agricultural insurance and Rural Revitalization; Chapter 5, 6 and 7 are empirical analysis. By constructing the index system and using the panel vector autoregressive model to prove the dynamic interactive effect of agricultural insurance and rural revitalization, then using the coupling coordination degree model to explore the degree and stage of their coordinated development, and analyze the differences of their coordination level in time and space. Finally, the grey correlation model is used to find the internal and external factors that promote the coordinated development of the two; Chapter 8 is the research conclusions and policy recommendations.

Main conclusions: there is a positive relationship between agricultural insurance and rural revitalization, but the mutual contribution is low, and the deepening trend is obvious; The effect of gradual integration and coordinated development between the two has gradually become prominent, the level of coupling coordination has significantly shifted, the proportion of mild and on the verge of imbalance provinces has decreased to zero, the proportion of primary coordination provinces has been expanding, and reluctantly coordination has become the main type; There are great regional differences in the level of coupling and coordination, showing a distribution pattern of high in the East, medium level and low in the west, and there is positive spatial autocorrelation, obvious local correlation characteristics and weak regional driving; Among the internal factors causing the spatial difference of coupling and coordination between the two, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, rural power consumption and agricultural insurance compensation ratio play a key role, and the driving force of road network density and environmental regulation is the strongest among the external factors.

Corresponding policy suggestions: increase policy support and improve the development environment of agricultural insurance; Implement data sharing and promote agricultural science and technology investment; Improve rural risk management; Stimulate product innovation and provide comprehensive risk guarantee; Strengthen regional ties and play a reference and leading role.