统计与数据科学学院知识库

  改革开放以来，我国技术进步水平有所提高，但核心领域仍然受制于人，尤其是面对当前世界经济下行、贸易保护主义蔓延及中美贸易摩擦等带来的外部经济环境的风险和不确定性以及国内正处于经济转型的时期，如何提高我国技术进步水平、增强经济增长的核心驱动力便显得尤为重要。鉴于此，本文基于开放视域下，找出影响我国技术进步的因素以及它们通过何种路径决定技术进步水平的高低，并以量化方式研究其作用机制。首先，在希克斯中性的假定前提下，以全要素生产率来体现技术进步水平，选择数据包络法测算我国各省的全要素生产率；其次通过梳理相关文献发现技术发明、技术扩散、技术创新是构成技术进步的三个直接因素，而吸收能力、技术差距、技术政策、信息传输、人力资本、经济环境等因素是对技术进步水平较为具体的影响因素，它们更多的体现为间接影响效用，由此选择相应的一系列显性指标来体现上述因素，并做出相应的潜变量测量模型的检验；最后，基于PLS结构方程模型，探索出各影响因素作用于技术进步的决定路径，并测度得到技术创新、技术扩散对我国技术进步的直接影响作用，以及技术差距、吸收能力、技术政策、经济环境、人力资本、信息传输对我国技术进步的间接影响作用。

  研究结果表明：决定技术进步的直接因素有技术创新、技术扩散，其中技术创新是技术进步的核心动力；技术政策、经济环境对技术进步的间接作用较为显著；信息传输、人力资本对技术进步的间接作用较小。对此，得出加强国内区域间技术扩散、加大对外开放力度、加强对企业的支持力度以及完善人才引进与培育机制等对策建议。

    Since the reform and opening up, the level of technological progress in China has improved, but the core areas are still controlled by others. Especially in the face of the risks and uncertainties of the external economic environment brought about by the current world economic downturn, the spread of trade protectionism and Sino US trade frictions, as well as the fact that China is in the period of economic transformation, how to improve the level of China's technological progress and enhance the core driving force of economic growth is particularly important. Therefore, based on the open perspective, this paper finds out the factors affecting China's technological progress and the path through which they affect the level of technological progress, and studies its mechanism in a quantitative way. Firstly, under the assumption of Hicks neutrality, the total factor productivity is used to reflect the level of technological progress, and the DEA is selected to calculate the total factor productivity of all provinces in China. Secondly, by combing the relevant literature, it is found that technological invention, technological diffusion and technological innovation are the three direct factors constituting technological progress, absorption capacity, technology gap, technology policy, information transmission, human capital, economic environment and other factors are more specific factors affecting the level of technological progress, which indirectly affect the utility, so we choose a series of explicit indicators to reflect the above factors, and test the corresponding latent variable measurement model. Finally, based on PLS structural equation model, this paper explores the decisive path of various influencing factors on technological progress, and measures the direct impact of technological innovation and technological diffusion on China's technological progress, as well as the indirect impact of technological gap, absorptive capacity, technological policy, economic environment, human capital and information transmission on China's technological progress.

    The results of the article are showed as follows: Firstly, the direct factors that determine technological progress are technological innovation and technological diffusion, among which technological innovation is the core driving force of technological progress. Secondly, the indirect effect of technological policy and economic environment on technological progress is more significant. Thirdly, information transmission and human capital have little indirect effect on technological progress. In this regard, it comes to some countermeasures and suggestions, such as strengthening the technology diffusion between domestic regions, strengthening the opening to the outside world, strengthening the support to enterprises and improving the talent introduction and cultivation mechanism.