国际经济与贸易学院知识库

       随着我国进入到了工业化中后期，产业结构正逐步由“工业经济”向“服务经济”转型。在服务业需要进一步加快发展，以及我国当前及未来很长一段时间都要面临老龄化问题的情况下，研究人口老龄化对服务业增加值的影响是很有必要的。
       本文主要分析人口老龄化对服务业增加值的影响,通过对2006-2019年我国省级面板数据进行研究,以固定效应模型探究人口老龄化对服务业增加值的影响,运用中介效应模型检验人口老龄化影响服务业增加值的机制。结果显示:从全国层面看,人口老龄化是通过加大老龄消费需求和倒逼企业以技术代替劳动来促进服务业增加值增长,同时也通过阻碍人力资本积累来抑制服务业增加值的提升,但总的来说,人口老龄化对服务业增加值的净效应为正。分区域来看,人口老龄化对服务业增加值的促进作用在区域之间有所差异,中部和西部地区的表现强于东部地区。
      根据结论,本文提出以下建议:(1)加快发展生活性为老服务业,提供多样化、多层次的老年服务产品，提高老年人生活服务的可及性和便捷性。(2)满足老年人的刚性需求,大力发展老年医疗、康复护理等服务业的发展。(3)发展第三支柱商业养老保险,提供丰富多样的养老金融产品。(4)加强老年教育,提高劳动资源的有效供给，鼓励老年人再就业,实现老有所为。(5)各地区应基于区域比较优势和人口年龄结构的区域梯度差异建立相应的服务业产业结构。

   As China has entered the middle and late stages of industrialization, the industrial structure is gradually transforming from an "industrial economy" to a "service economy". Under the circumstance that the service industry needs to be further accelerated, and my country is facing the problem of aging at present and in the future for a long time, it is necessary to study the impact of population aging on the added value of the service industry.

    This paper mainly focuses on the influence of population aging on the added value of the service industry. Through the research on the provincial panel data in my country from 2006 to 2019, the fixed effect model is used to explore the impact of population aging on the added value of the service industry, and the mediation effect model is used to test the population Mechanisms by which aging affects value added in the service sector. The results show that: from the national level, population aging promotes the growth of the added value of the service industry by increasing the consumption demand of the elderly and forcing enterprises to replace labor with technology, and also inhibits the increase of the added value of the service industry by hindering the accumulation of human capital. But in general, the net effect of population aging on the added value of the service industry is positive. In terms of regions, the impact of aging population on value-added of service industry varies from region to region, and the central and western regions are stronger.

    According to the conclusion,make the following recommendations: (1) Accelerate the development of life-oriented services for the elderly, provide diversified and multi-level services for the elderly, and improve the accessibility and convenience of life services for the elderly.(2) To meet the rigid needs of the elderly, vigorously develop the development of service industries such as geriatric medical care and rehabilitation nursing. (3) Develop the third pillar commercial endowment insurance and provide a variety of endowment financial products. (4) Strengthen the education of the elderly, improve the effective supply of labor resources, encourage the elderly to re-employ, and achieve old age. (5) Each region establishes corresponding service industry structure based on regional comparative advantage and regional gradient difference of population age structure.