国际经济与贸易学院知识库

新发展格局下，对外贸易环境更加复杂严峻，甘肃省作为“一带一路”黄金通道段，应当抓住“一带一路”机遇，将深度融入“一带一路”建设作为贯彻新发展理念的立足点、落脚点。精准评估与分析甘肃省同“一带一路”主要贸易伙伴的贸易潜力，探究各项人为因素对甘肃省贸易效率的影响，对甘肃在国际大循环中找准发力点，开拓外贸新空间具有重要的现实意义。

本文利用甘肃省2010-2018年同“一带一路”主要贸易伙伴贸易面板数据，通过引入随机前沿引力模型，得出非效率因素对甘肃省同主要贸易伙伴贸易效率的影响。并对甘肃省同“一带一路”主要贸易伙伴贸易效率以及拓展贸易潜力进行测度与分析。主要发现有：第一，甘肃省同“一带一路”主要贸易伙伴的出口效率处于稳定上升趋势。甘肃省同“一带一路”主要贸易伙伴整体进口效率高于平均水平。第二，甘肃省短期出口应当着重于出口拓展当中。长期应当将主要贸易伙伴中的印度、泰国作为甘肃省实现“一带一路”长期出口拓展增长的重点目标市场。第三，甘肃省短期进口在进口潜力及进口拓展空间上均没有较大提升与增长空间，应当努力改善人为非效率项影响因素，着眼于长期。第四，税收水平、货币、贸易、金融自由度差异对进口非效率呈正向作用，基础设施水平对进口非效率呈负向作用；税收水平、主要贸易伙伴基础设施水平、贸易自由度差异对出口非效率呈正向作用，投资、经济自由度差异对出口非效率呈负向作用。本文的研究支持了甘肃省开拓“一带一路”贸易空间，深度融入“一带一路”建设的重要性。

Under the new development pattern, the foreign trade environment is more complicated and severe. As the golden passage section of "The Belt and Road", Gansu Province should seize the opportunity of "The Belt and Road" initiative and take the in-depth integration into the construction of the Belt and Road initiative as the foothold and foothold of implementing the new development concept. It is of great practical significance to accurately evaluate and analyze the trade potential of Gansu Province with the major trading partners of "The Belt and Road" and explore the influence of various human factors on the trade efficiency of Gansu Province, so as to identify the driving point of Gansu province in the international cycle and develop new space for foreign trade.

In this paper, based on the trade panel data of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2018 with major trading partners of "The Belt and Road", and by introducing the stochastic frontier gravity model, the influence of inefficiency factors on the trade efficiency of Gansu Province with major trading countries is obtained. It also measures and analyzes the trade efficiency and expanding trade potential between Gansu province and the main trading partners of "The Belt and Road". The main findings are as follows: First, The export efficiency of Gansu Province with the major trading partners of "The Belt and Road" is in a steady upward trend.The overall import efficiency of Gansu province with major belt and Road trading partners is higher than average. Second, In the short term, gansu province should focus on export expansion. In the long run, India and Thailand, among the major trading partners, should be regarded as the key target markets for gansu province to realize the long-term export expansion and growth of "The Belt and Road". Third, There is no significant improvement and growth space in import potential and import expansion in the short term in Gansu Province, so efforts should be made to improve the influencing factors of artificial inefficiency and focus on the long term. Fourth,The differences in tax level, currency, trade and financial freedom have a positive effect on import inefficiency, while the level of infrastructure has a negative effect on import inefficiency. Tax level, infrastructure level of major trading countries and trade degree of freedom have positive effects on export inefficiency, while investment and economic degree of freedom have negative effects on export inefficiency.