金融学院知识库

    自2008年金融危机后，我国宏观杠杆率持续攀升，杠杆率高企的问题引起了政府及学者们的普遍关注，2015年我国提出了“去杠杆”，2018年提出“结构性去杠杆”。在当前面临疫情防控的常态化与经济下行的双重压力下，如何实现稳增长与防风险的平衡，进而推动宏观杠杆率的下降，值得深思。本文从我国金融结构对宏观杠杆率的影响这一角度分析这一问题，试图从金融结构优化角度为这一问题找到答案。

    首先，本文对宏观杠杆率和金融结构的相关研究文献进行了梳理与总结，并在对杠杆率和金融结构的定义进行界定的基础上，从融资结构、金融中介结构和金融开放程度三个方面探讨金融结构影响宏观杠杆率的机制，认为金融结构主要通过影响实体经济的融资规模、融资效率以及实体部门的投资与产出水平对宏观杠杆率产生影响。其次，对我国宏观杠杆率的现状从总体及分部门两个角度进行了分析。再次，本文将金融结构分成非金融部门融资结构、金融中介结构以及金融开放程度共三方面，并从这三个方面利用实证分析了我国金融结构对宏观杠杆率的影响，发现我国金融结构与宏观杠杆率间存在着非线性关系；具体来说，融资结构和金融开放结构与宏观杠杆率呈倒U型关系，金融中介结构和宏观杠杆率成U型关系。最后，提出提高直接融资比重、建立并完善多元化的金融中介结构、继续扩大金融开放、制定差异化去杠杆策略等对策建议。

   Since the financial crisis in 2008, China's macro leverage ratio has continued to climb, and the problem of high leverage ratio has attracted the general attention of the government and scholars. In 2015, China proposed "deleveraging".And in 2018, China proposed "structural deleveraging".Under the dual pressure of the normalization of epidemic prevention and the economic downturn, how to achieve the balance between steady growth and risk prevention, and then promote the decline of the macro leverage ratio, is worth pondering.This paper analyzes this problem from the perspective of China's financial structure on the macro leverage ratio, and tries to find the answer from the perspective of financial structure optimization.

   Firstly, this paper summarizes the research literature of macro leverage ratio and financial structure. Based on the definition of leverage ratio and financial structure,this paper discusses the mechanism which financial structure influence the macro leverage ratio from financing structure, financial intermediary structure and financial openness.It is considered that financial structure has an impact on the macro leverage ratio mainly by affectting the financing scale of real economy ,the financing efficiency and the investment and output level of the real sector. Secondly, it analyzes the current situation of macro leverage ratio in China from the perspective of overall and sub sectors.Thirdly, this paper divides the financial structure into three aspects: non-financial sector financing structure, financial intermediary structure and financial openness. And this paper analyzes the impact of financial structure on macro leverage from these three aspects. It is found that there is a nonlinear relationship between financial structure and macro leverage.Specifically, the relationship between financing structure and macro leverage ratio is inverted U-shaped;the relationship between financial openness and macro leverage ratio is inverted U-shaped;and the relationship between financial intermediary structure and macro leverage ratio is U-shaped.Finally, it puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, such as increasing the proportion of direct financing, establishing and improving the diversified financial intermediary structure, continuing to expand the financial opening, and formulating differentiated deleveraging strategies.